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Equinties - Byrnes in hot water
BGP Capital
December 17, 2025
Gm Equinauts
Well, we won’t lie, we completely forgot about Philip Byrnes’ dismount from Redwood Queen!
Let’s dive in!
HEADLINE ROUNDUP
BYRNES IN HOT WATER
We completely forgot about Philip Byrnes dismounting REDWOOD QUEEN. For anyone that might have missed it, watch this (apologies for re-posting Geoff Banks, but he’s got the only clip of the dismount we can find):
When we first saw it we thought Byrnes blatantly took a dive, and to be honest our opinion hasn’t changed looking at it again, so naturally we weren’t surprised to see the IHRB investigating it.
The the first day of the hearing took place yesterday and lasted ALL day. It was fascinating to see who the IHRB pulled in to give evidence. First was data company CEO, Aidan Connolly, who produced evidence on the pre-race price action and size. He said the drift on REDWOOD QUEEN was unusual but more, it was the size being moved in favour of the market favourite, BEACON EDGE, which was beyond the norm stating “…it’s the significant jump 20 minutes out, which is 5x… when you see a jump like that, not in the amount but in the multiple, it would be beyond the norm, beyond the usual”.
So, the market moves are telling - punters were backing BEACON EDGE with such confidence they were moving size to suggest the outcome was already a foregone conclusion. Perhaps it was?
Enter Leighton Aspell, ex-jockey and now stipendiary IHRB steward, whose professional experience is so valued, the IHRB wanted to know what he thought of the ‘exit’.
Leighton thinks Byrnes chucked himself off.
It’s nice to know our initial thoughts have been backed up by Leighton Aspell’s comments, as we imagine some jockeys would have seen our initial post on X and took an immediate disliking to it, like we were threatening to lift the veil of the racing jockeys omerta.
Obviously, we’ll keep you updated with the goings on of this investigation.
SLOWLY SLOWLY
We know the Paul Nicholls MO by now. Have an exciting novice hurdler, use the phrase ‘whatever he does this season is a bonus’, and then hope his ability remains as a novice chaser. This is path has been taken by many a Ditcheat inmate before, and REGENT’S STROLL is no different.
The difference for REGENT’ S STROLL is that Nicholls is seemingly happy to take more time with the horse, stating that “it’s all about next season”, even though he is a novice chaser now. Interesting.
The horse clearly isn’t an easy one to train. He went off like a mad man at Newbury in the Grade 2 John Francome Novices’ Chase, but he does look like one who has plenty of ability.
Even though it was just a two-runner race yesterday at Wincanton, and Nico de Boinville wasn’t in a rush with JERIKO DU REPONET, there was a lot to be pleased about by what REGENT’S STROLL did. When JERKIKO gave him a go before the third-last, he jumped the fence well, and Cobden asked him very few questions in order for him to go away like a nice horse.
One would imagine that Nicholls would aim him high after this, but he’s going to take a small pull. The trainer mentioned the Grade 1 Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase, but we wouldn’t be shocked if they miss Cheltenham and just go straight to Aintree with him.
It’s an interesting move this. We’re not one to disagree with Nicholls’ methods, and in fairness, the best race for the horse (at this stage of his career) would be the old Turners Novices’ Chase. With that gone, and Nicholls’ keenness not to go into a handicap this year, Cheltenham doesn’t look that appealing.
The Scilly Isles can be a soft affair sometimes, but this year’s might be hot enough with DIVA LUNA representing last year’s winning trainer Ben Pauling. He is also six, seven in the new year, so if they just mind him for half a year, that’s not the end of the world with a view to going three miles in time.
To our eye, he has progressed from Newbury to here, but that’s mainly mentally. He settled a lot better yesterday rather than tearing off miles clear. Physically, we think he looked very good at the business end yesterday.
If he continued to progress, he could be quite sharp next season as a three-miler. Who knows, he could develop into a King George type, especially if Nicholls wants to go up in trip?
He doesn’t look like a natural ‘Gold Cup horse’ though, but races like the King George, Aintree Bowl, and Charlie Hall could be his bag as an open chaser. And then, if he does become this type of horse, Nicholls will be applauded for taking his time rather than going all guns blazing as a novice. He’s not silly, and he’s probably had these conversations with connections, and if they’re happy, that’s all that really matters.
As for JERIKO DU REPONET, are they giving him an easy time of things to land a handicap? He seems like too much of a headcase to do that with ease, so we wouldn’t be sure this is what is happening but only time (and the market) will tell.
NEWBURY RACING
Our beloved home track, Newbury, once again hosts a nice jumps card today. The going report states good to soft, soft in places which is amazing given the amount of rain we had on Monday night, but nether the less we though we’d give you some pointers if you’re tuned in for it.
The opening ‘Chasing Excellence’ race is another boring match race and really should be a light bit of work for LUCKY PLACE who drastically underperformed on chase debut. We’ll move on from that without comment on the increasing pattern of two runner races plaguing the BHA’s new initiative.
The second race, the 12.23, is a competitive juvenile hurdle which we’d like to have had more rain for to give us more a betting edge. Gary and Josh Moore’s CAYMAN DANCER has been backed into fave, we think owed to both yard form and the fact that Skelton’s DOWN TO BUSINESS (who was fave) is by sire GHAIYYATH. In time the best bred of this lot might prove to be FRENCH DIABLO who has a proper NH page, but today we'll be eyeing up EXPLODE for AP McCoy, sorry, Faye Bramley. There was a strong message for him last time out and now with the experience and Sean Bowen on, he could show up.
The 12.53 is a weak looking maiden which see’s Skelton’s KADASTRAL heavy odds on. with the healthy number of runners in the field and the field 5’s, it might be worth finding the ew play against. The most obvious play would be Knights.
Another odds on shot dominates the market for the 4th race, the 13.23, as Joe’s KRIPTICJIM looks to go 2 from 3 over hurdles over 2m 4f. A straight 8 line up meaning another opportunity for punters to take on the fave. Irish raider DAYDREAM NATION in 1 from 1 over hurdles and he looked pretty good when doing it. On the dam side he is related to MINELLA INDO! We’re not sure what he beat and whether any of them were on a going day though. Pauling’s new recruit has a nice pedigree and will be fit from his recent point in October. Of the rest, PADRE ARTHUR is out of a nice mare. Probably a non-betting race for us.
Only 6 line up for the fifth, the 13.58, which is a handicap chase for 2 milers. The market see’s a fave priced at odds against whoop whoop! That’s HIGHLANDS LEGACY whose last time out form looks good now since GLENGOULY has gone on to win Cheltenham’s December meeting Gold Cup. The long Newbury straight will really suit this horse. MIGHTY BANDIT reps Greatrex who is in unbelievable form. He shares a form line with the fave through MAMBONUMBERFIVE. LOOKAWAY will lead this race and it’ll be a case of whether he can hold on. He was a very good bumper horse and the best hurdler of this lot, he now just needs to show more over fences (which he can because he’s a brilliant jumper). TORNEO is in his second season chasing and looks to have improved. He should have won last time and can really make his presence felt today if not given too much to do (he is normally held up). Can he catch LOOKAWAY? KOTMASK seems more suited to Ascot and the ex-Mullins horse UNCLE PHIL needs to turn his form around. A tight handicap, with preference for TORNEO who should like the flat nature of the track and run down the front running LOOKAWAY on the line.
14.33 is a handicap chase over 2m 4f and see’s Jane Williams’ KNIGHT OF ALLEN fave. The RP says he was flattered by a faller last time out which might be true but we do think he was given an educational for his chase debut. Jane loves a Newbury winner and we imagine she’ll be hoping the ground is more on the good side of things today.
DONT TELL SU is a new recruit for Hendo from Nicholls’ yard. First run for a while and only second chase run, he’s hard to weigh up but Hendo has done well for connections recently!
Mullins has one in this but he looks a bit of boat.
Of the rest, last time out winner (for us) FINE CASTIN needs slower ground, PESO probably needs the run as might ICARE GRANDCHAMP, LORD BADDESLEY will be more at home going left round Newbury, and WALKING ON AIR will be out for a run. We really like KNIGHT OF ALLEN for this and think he picks his legs up high enough to get through the cut in the ground.
15.08. The last race is a tough fillies bumper. We think it’s out of the top four in the market; GALAXY STAR (if she can carry the penalty), STORM CRACKER for Ben Clarke who is targeting bumpers, LADY LITIGATOR for Honeyball who likes a Newbury bumper and WAIT FOR THIS too who has has flat winners in dam side and by a flat sire. We’ll look at them in the pre’s but at the moment Lavelle’s WAIT FOR THIS is tempting.
RISK ON
A nice winner in POET LAUREATE yesterday who drifted to 9/1 on the Tote for those who play with them (every one should - Tote | Offers ):
Today see’s GOLDEN VIEW debut in Kempton’s 17.10 and he should make for gold viewing as he is one of Godolphin’s better 2yo’s. He’s the rocket we mentioned yesterday. Taken a small walk in the market as punters steam into the Varian horse with experience but he will have needed to improve A LOT to beat Godolphin’s today who is very smart. Needs to run to 90 on debut and should do.
Else where we like:
13.05 FREE YOUR SPIRIT
This lad owns a nice pedigree and he’s no racing anything! On pedigree should just win this hands and heels. It’s the price that putting us on going big on him, the fact he’s not odds on would be slight concern. 2/1 a value bet.
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