Equinties - business Down Under

Gm Equinauts

Our standout stats section continues to bang out the winners.

There are hundreds of stats every day but we go through all of them to make sure the pedigree’s and race conditions align with the horse and corresponding stat to ensure there is an edge.

It’s a glorious section.

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

AUSTRALIA

It’s funny how certain things in racing happen to occur on the same day, and they all have a common denominator. In yesterday’s case, it was the entire country of Australia.

As many of you will know, we are currently in the transfer window in the football season, but in our wonderful sport, owners can chop and change trainers whenever they please, and on Tuesday, we received news about two trainer alterations, the first involving TRINITY COLLEGE, as he has left Aidan O’Brien to join Chris Waller in Australia.

We’ve been pretty vocal about our admiration for TRINITY COLLEGE since his Group 3 Hampton Court success (we backed him). He looked really good at Royal Ascot, and he came very close to landing the Group 1 Grand Prix de Paris last month.

He’s the kind of horse that could go over to Australia and dominate. We’re not going to say he’s the next VIA SISTINA or anything (mainly because he’s not a mare, lol), but VIA SISTINA placed in and won a Group 1 in Europe before going down under and winning eight Group 1s, including the Cox Plate.

With TRINITY COLLEGE’s raw skill and ability to sit prominently in his races, he could thrive for Waller.

The second transfer between the UK and Australia that occurred yesterday was the other way around, as CARL SPACKLER is now trained by John & Thady Gosden, rather than Ciaron Maher.

Now this is an interesting one. The son of LOPE DE VEGA was a bit of a monster in the USA when trained by Chad Brown, but ever since he’s moved to Ciaron Maher, things haven’t been amazing. Admittedly, he wasn’t with his Australian-based trainer trained long, and he wasn’t disgraced in his two runs for the yard where he finished sixth in the Group 1 Queen Anne and sixth in the Group 1 Sussex Stakes.

So, before this news came through yesterday, when you looked at that record, there were actually positives to take from his UK form before his inevitable trip to Australia to try out some of the Group 1s over there. But now, he will be trained and campaigned in the UK, and we already know that it’s a bit of a stretch to think of him as a Group 1 horse in this country unless he shows drastic improvement.

Why would you do that? The two, more sensible, options for this horse’s career consist of sticking to the original Australian plan or maybe going back to America with him, where you know he performs really well.

They’ll have their reasoning for the continued changing. Maybe Yulong Investments, who must have spent a fortune on him, have come to the conclusion that he isn’t as good as they once thought? Or more likely, they’ve come to the realisation that he might be better suited to the European and US racing scene. Let’s not forget the Aussie’s love their long distance racing where as we, and our states side friends love our milers.

All we know is that the Cox Plate is off the cards for him.

Speaking of the Cox Plate, WHIRL was handed an entry for the Moonee Valley Group 1 by Aidan O’Brien yesterday. After her Nassau Stakes success last week, O’Brien was keen to stress that she could do anything, and we were all thinking this meant the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. However, speaking to the Racing Post, it seems like his thinking could be a bit further afield.

He said: “Nothing is decided for Whirl and won’t be for about a week, ten days or two weeks; we'll see how she is.

“We put a lot in the Cox Plate and it's a race she would be eligible for. It's a long way away, so we'll take one step at a time. All the horses have a programme and two or three races in advance you're never sure, but that doesn’t mean those races couldn’t come on their radar.

“We'll get the next one and see where we go after that. She could do anything. She could go to America, to Australia, to Hong Kong, she can go anywhere really.”

This is really exciting. O’Brien isn’t afraid to pitch one of his in a big overseas race (cough cough CITY OF TROY in the Breeders’ Cup Classic cough cough), and WHIRL looks to have a brilliant temperament, so why not try? We love the planning!

NO GOLD IN YORK

Our suspicions earlier in the week were proven correct yesterday, as FIELD OF GOLD was ruled out of the Juddmonte International by connections.

In Monday’s newsletter, we thought that the Juddmonte would come too soon for him, and even if he did make York, it would be hard to back him on his first start at 1m2f after a setback and a disappointing performance.

Well, the decision has been made and it will be interesting to see where they go next.

Of course, because the champ still hasn’t yet fully recovered, and he is set to have precautionary X-rays on Wednesday, connections haven’t made a plan for the future.

All Barry Mahon could do is offer a loose set of quotes, as he said: “It was the plan pre-Goodwood to stick at a mile for the time being and obviously there has been no chat about potential races since Goodwood, we’re just going to have to let the dust settle and let him get back into exercise and then when he is fit make a plan from there.

“You are getting into that time of year when there is not an abundance of opportunities and there is the Moulin, QEII or you go up to a mile and a quarter for the races at that distance.

“So I wouldn’t say there is a huge amount of options, but we’ll just wait and see and let the horse tell us.”

It is interesting that he still had swelling in his fetlock, as of yesterday, and they are having X-rays done. Yes, the Gosdens may be “much happier” with his progress, but that’s still five days since he was officially deemed lame by John Gosden.

Will the Gosdens rush him back to make the Irish Champion Stakes or British Champions Day? No, they will take their time. There is a hypothetical scenario where his trainers decide that it could be much similar and safer to draw stumps and save him for next year.

We’re not saying that this is a position that Juddmonte and the Gosdens are in, but the updates do seem a bit smoke in mirrors.
Of course, we hope he has a speedy recovery because it would be great to see him back at 100% in some of the top races this season.

A GOOD LEGER?!

Has the St Leger really been a race to follow in recent years? Seriously, sit down in front of the mirror, one on one, and ask yourself the question.

Last year’s race was fine, but 2023 was actually a pretty poor contest (the winner, CONTINUOUS, is a mere pacemaker these days), and the less we talk about ELDAR ELDAROV’s year, the better. He was a nice horse, but HASKOY (who?) finished second.

Yes, the race has huge historical significance, but so does the National Hunt Chase, and that’s now a handicap!

And ultimately, if you were to strap the boss of any big owner-breeder operation (Godolphin/Coolmore) to a lie detector and ask ‘does winning the St Leger have any positive influence to a potential stallion’s future prospects’, the answer would probably be ‘no’.

We think a lot of people realised this a few years ago, so it was great to see Betfred offer up a cash prize to any horse who won the British triple crown, as this would incentivise connections to run their potential Guineas/Derby winners in the race.

As for this year, we don’t have any horse trying to take Fred Done’s money, but we could still have a pretty epic Leger, which is a pleasant turn of events.

SCANDINAVIA, LAMBOURN, LAZY GRIFF, CARMERS, and TENNESSEE STUD look like solid market leaders, and while three of them come from the same Epsom/Irish Derby form line, CARMERS and SCANDINAVIA bring the Queen’s Vase form to the table. Furthermore, SCANDINAVIA has dipped his hoof into open company with his Goodwood Cup win.

If all five of these stand their ground, and a few extra interesting names remain in the race, we could have a fun final Classic of the season to look forward to.

STATS OF THE DAY

Owen Burrows has been good to this section notching up another winner with TOULEEN yesterday who was well gambled ahead of her debut. One to follow!

Today the standout stat of the day comes in the 14.30 at Pontecarlo. Serena Botherton is 3 from 4 at course for Mick and Dave Easterby and they team up with UNPLUGGED. Interestingly we were at Newbury when big money came for this horse 3 starts ago. He didn’t win that day but went on to hose up at Ponte next time out. Back at Ponte today, something says they’ve been targeting this race.

RISK ON

Two weeks and one day until the Lowther where our ante-post selection ROYAL FIXATION runs. Most of the books are working to 200% (with them taking about 40% margin with the inevitable non-runners, rough maths) meaning no value for her now. Will Hills still has recently opened at 9/4 (2’s) now which might still be a bet should you be able to utilise that price for leverage bets. All our bets on her are ‘free’ plays as we’ve played the small doubles and trebles alongside standard singles - so no liability for us at present. The question is - do we hedge?

Many seem to be playing the likes of AMERCIAN QUEEN, currently price at 7/1. She’ll be shorter on the day with the girls in front of her not going, but we still don’t think she’ll beat our selection. We’ll decide on the day but our guess now is we’ll just let the play run as it is.

For todays yield, we’ll target:

15.15 MONKS MEAD

This is such a low grade it doesn’t require normal stake - smaller than usual but he’s handicapped to win and looks plotty. An ew at 8/1 because in this race, on this ground he should be a lot shorter at 3’s.

17.45 ZIGHY

Well fancied by Boughey’s yard. Admittedly Shaggas’ filly was eye-catching last time out but we should see a different animal from Boughey’s yard today. Short but 6/4 still a bet.

19.45 RAAMEE

Risking a debutant here against experienced horses but in the context of the race and the pedigree’s racing, he looks the most likely winner.

In the 16.15 we think ORCHESTRAL WAVE should win. The yard were shocked he got beat last time out and confident of redemption today. Either lever another bet today or play on Wills with the ante-post.