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Equinties - Burke's brief
BGP Capital
March 31, 2026
Gm, Equinauts
So, this was the first draft of this mornings newsletter…
Fair play to the lads, we could have been wasting money on that spreadsheet for another few weeks. It’s very kind of them to put us out our misery early.
We genuinely can’t believe they’re not rolling the dice with ALBERT in the Guineas. They now have THREE sprinters this year with CHARLES DARWIN and GSTAAD. Crazy.
Tri-cast in the Commonwealth anyone lol?
We imagine there will be a few people laughing at us this morning, that’s okay, the racing X playground is like that. We’re laughing too!
We’ll be alright this flat season.
Now, in a rapid turn of events Aidan has quickly come out and said it was a computer glitch.
It will be bloody interesting to see if they put ALBERT back in and not just GSTAAD.
Let’s dive in.
HEADLINE ROUNDUP
👑BURKE’S BRIEF
We think Burke is fast becoming the bast flat trainer in the country, if he isn’t already, and today the RP have detailed his thoughts on a few of his star older horses and their targets whilst also giving a nod to a few 2yo’s to look out for.
Although we will say he has kept quiet about a few in his yard lmao!
The first thing we noticed is his pondering over sending potentially two to face CONSTITUTION HILL in the John Porter at Newbury. His options are in the form of AL QAREEM and CONVERGENT, although it’s the latter who is most likely to go. The highest rated son of FASCINATING ROCK has a progressive profile, just like his dad did, and if he’s anything near him in terms of ability, will be trying to grab a Group 1 at 4yo. That will really test CONSTITUTION HILL!
The horse highlighted as this seasons potential stable star is unbeaten ZEUS OLYMPIOS. Karl quick to state ‘it’s a shame' Sheikh Mo Obaid isn’t around to see him’. His first big target is the Lockinge which we know they’re very, very bullish on. He’s a homebred by gun sire NIGHT OF THUNDER (who is also the daddy of the late Obaid’s now Guineas face in BOW ECHO) out of their 90 rated filly RHEA.
Another horse Burkie seemed bloody bullish on was Wathnan’s SHAREHOLDER who he described returning to training as a ‘beast’. He’s been put up as this seasons possible Group 1 sprinter and will go to France as prep for RA.
A small mention was given to our Queen, ROYAL FIXATION. She went to Burke after being sold for top money by her old owners Opulence. She will stay sprinting and it will be very interesting to see if she’s trained on!
Karl then put up a couple of 2yo’s to follow but, let’s put it this way, we know he’s keeping his cards close to his chest!
🚨BELLWEATHER CASE
Pro poker player and betting expert Neil Channing has chucked fuel on the fire that is the industry battle over affordability checks, using the recent Alan Spence case to question the current direction of regulation.
The case, which saw owner breeder Alan Spence ordered to repay more than £840,000 to one David Solomon, has been rightly used by Channing as evidence of a growing problem—namely, the inability of authorities to control black market betting.
Channing argues that while the Gambling Commission focus heavily on online restrictions, illegal operators continue to thrive “by word of mouth” and remain extremely difficult to police. He’s right… every single black-market bookmaker we’ve been introduced to has been through friends via whatsapp. How the hell are the Gambling Commission going to stop that!?
The tightening checks on licensed bookmakers are pushing more punters—particularly higher-staking owners and serious bettors—away from the regulated system. It’s a repeat of what happened in the Netherlands.
Channing agrees that if punters are forced to jump through various moving hurdles to simply get a bet on, many will simply take their business elsewhere, draining money from the sport.
There are some days we can’t even get a bet on!
In short, Channing’s reaction to the Spence case is clear: rather than solving the problem, stricter affordability checks may be exposing a deeper issue—one where regulation struggles to keep pace with the realities of modern betting.
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