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Equinties - British novices
BGP Capital
December 16, 2025
Gm Equinauts
We’re hearing there is a bit of a weapon being unleashed tomorrow and we’re going to try get to the track to watch the debut!
Let’s dive in!
HEADLINE ROUNDUP
BLUNTED BAMBINO
We’re pretty sure that BAMBINO FEVER ruled out any chance of her heading to the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle yesterday.
It feels weird to say that before Christmas about a Champion Bumper winner who was unbeaten up until yesterday, but with her age and her potential ability, we’re almost certain that she will head down the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle route.
Let us explain.
So, BAMBINO FEVER was beaten on hurdling debut at 1/4 yesterday. Ahh, sound the alarm bells, this is huge, oh my god!!
Well, no, it’s not that big, especially if you read our piece last week on Willie Mullins’ winter strategy (lot’s of runners in December with his lowest strike rate (indicating these are training pieces)).
Also, there are great horses that have failed to win on their first starts of the season/over hurdles. ISTABRAQ lost on hurdling debut, and while we’re not saying that BAMBINO FEVER is the next ISTABRAQ, this just shows that good horses can do this on their seasonal reappearance! That being said, yesterday’s loss is enough to think that the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle is probably out of her reach. She didn’t quite jump with a level of zest that would get you excited, and she was bang there approaching the last if she was good enough.
Obviously, there is a huge and most credible argument to suggest that she just ran into a race-fit rival who caught her lacking, and while this theory does hold water, it is still disappointing to see her beaten at such short odds considering she was a general 14/1 shot for the Supreme ahead of yesterday. So, what do you do with her now?
The Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle route seems fairly obvious. She will almost certainly improve for the run fitness wise, and there isn’t a tonne of standout mares at this current stage, though there is still plenty of time to go until March. Keeping her against her own gender seems sensible.
That being said, she’s no certainty for March. Just because she’d be dropping down in grade/class doesn’t mean she will just waltz through like it’s a walk in the park. She will need to refine her jumping, and you’d be hoping that a turn of foot returns on her next run, because it was pretty underwhelming yesterday.
OLDSCHOOL OUTLAW could be a horse that will go underestimated through this season, but overall, BAMBINO FEVER probably gets a 6/10 for her hurdling debut, with room to improve.
DECISIONS FOR PAUL
Is Paul’s favourite race, the Challow, the right route for NO DRAMA THIS END?
It might be outlandish to question Paul’s tried and tested training methodology but, in our eyes, the Grade 2 Classic Novices’ Hurdle on Trials Day over 2m4f might be more of a sound option for his potential star.
Why? The Challow is a hard race. Yes, Skelton’s THE NEW LION won it easily before winning the Turners this year, but let’s consider the following with rational minds. The timing of the Challow is a bit awkward, you go to Newbury before the New Year and then what? Go straight to Cheltenham as a super fresh horse? That would be the standard route, but you do open yourself up to blowing up at the Festival on your first start for nearly two and a half months.
Do you instead try to do what POTTERS CHARM did last year (run at Christmas and on Trials Day and then go to Cheltenham)? That is a lot of racing, and could well be ‘over the top’ by the Festival.
So, another option might be to simply skip the Challow, head to Trials Day, have a suitable amount of time away from the track, and then go to Prestbury Park in March, whichever race that may be for NO DRAMA THIS END.
‘But he won’t get to take on any good horses if he just goes to Trials Day’, we hear you cry. This is a valid argument, but it could be less valid if Ben Pauling decides to send TAURUS BAY to the race. For those of you unfamiliar with TAURUS BAY, he is a smart Harry Redknapp-owned one who looked very good at Aintree last weekend. Connections had mentioned the Formby Novices’ Hurdle at Christmas, but they have decided to not head back to Merseyside an instead look at one of two races in early 2026, probably because Pauling is intending to send STARMOUNT there so will split them up.
Pauling said: “He’d be more likely to go to Cheltenham on Trials day or the Sidney Banks (at Huntingdon) and then possibly have a tilt at the Turners (Novices’ Hurdle) or something like that.
“He doesn’t need to run again so quickly, I think the Formby would be soon enough for him, but I might look at it for Starmount. He won up at Wetherby and he’s a horse I like a lot.
“He had a very interrupted preparation and he’ll have improved a ton for the run. He came out of it like a bull, he’s a hardy five-year-old and I’d say the Formby would be right up his street.”
TAURUS BAY ran at Aintree on December 6th, and he says he “doesn’t need to run again so quickly”. Listen to Ben, Paul!
So, if TAURUS BAY goes to Trials Day, that will definitely give NO DRAMA THIS END a good marker, and if OLD PARK STAR also heads there, then we could be set for a rather nice race!
QUICKFIRE HEADLINES
There were a few bits of news from yesterday that deserve a mention, and they also don’t take too much analysis. Starting with BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD, Gordon Elliott confirmed that the mare will stay over hurdles at Christmas, and if we know Gordo, that means she stays over hurdles this season. This was all rumours and suggestions last week, but yesterday we got the confirmation, as he said: “She worked very well last week.
“She’s going to work in the morning and if she works well and everything is OK she is going to be supplemented for the two-mile hurdle at Leopardstown (on December 29).”
Chris Gordon has also been doing stable tours, and two horses took our eye. DAVID’S WELL, a highly progressive horse who win at Cheltenham on Saturday, “could end up in the Grand Annual at Cheltenham”, and with the way he’s progressing, we could see him being a player.
Gordon also has a horse called BASS HUNTER, and its fair to say that he is quite bullish on him. He said: “Bass Hunter is the most exciting horse I would have trained up to date so far in my 18 years training. I always thought he was special horse at home in a yard like ours. We went for a bumper at Newbury and he bolted up and he will go for the Listed bumper at Ascot on December 19.”
Two more trainers hitting the headlines were Nicky Henderson and TC.
Nicky for his call to action amongst trainers to help save Kempton which most found out yesterday has an option contract for property development out on it (the Jockey Club agreed the option to developers a few years ago meaning the developers can exercise it when they want). Gary Moore came up with a good idea - Kempton to do what Newbury did and develop around the track, there is enough space for it!
And finally, we should give a shoutout to Tony Carroll is currently having his best year ever. He has 123 winners to his name, and yesterday, the yard ticked over the £1 million prize money mark.
Congratulations, TC. An incredible achievement.
RISK ON
Another really tough days racing with not much by the way of a standout betting opportunity, although we do think one is over priced:
15.30 POET LAUREATE
Yard in good form and this lad arguably sets the standard on what he’s done so far and his pedigree should mean he will love the rain soaked conditions more than most. We priced him up around 5/2 meaning the 11/2, although a concern as to why he’s so big, has to be taken ew on otherwise a very quiet day. We’ve had several tools down days recently as the betting has been difficult and it’s often wise to save ammunition for the good ones.
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