Equinties - British Champions Day targets

Gm Equinauts

The night are darker, the temperature is dropping, the rain is pouring and Newton Abbot is heavy going.

National Hunt season is nearly here.

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

A LOCKINGE REPEAT

Two painful 2nds bookend CHARYN’s Group 1 form this season - 2112.

In the Lockinge, the field gave AUDIENCE a freebie on the front and CHARYN was the one chasing him down but in vain,

and the mirror image occurred yesterday in the Prix du Moulin with TRIBALIST.

TRIBALIST didn’t stop in the ground when jockey Mickael Barzalona slipped the field and delivered a master ride straight into the winners enclosure.

Like the Lockinge, CHARYN was the only horse with enough boot to chase the leader but equally, the outcome was the same, he simply ran out of track.

He made up seven lengths on TRIBALIST in the final three furlongs, but he was eight lengths back at the three-furlong pole. Some might side with poor rides from the field instead of celebrating Barzalona’s racing brain.

And now TRIBALIST has Breeders’ Cup aims, but will he really appreciate the quick ground? His best performance have come in deep ground, so that would be a reasonably big concern.

Back to CHARYN. If you have eye’s, you’ll know that CHARYN really should be undefeated in Group 1’s this season but he’s got one more target ahead of him to add to his top tier tally - the QEII on Champions Day in October.

KILLER KALPANA

Over in the UK, the best performance of the weekend didn’t come in the ‘best’ race but was breath-taking nonetheless as KALPANA oozed class in Kempton’s September Stakes.

And she was gambled like that performance was expected.

For a filly that made her debut in January this year and hasn’t run in any Classics, she still looks like one of the leading horses in the fillies division. Her CV is stacking up nicely and it’s worth noting the form lines that got a boost on Saturday.

She chased home FRIENDLY SOUL at Newmarket in the Pretty Polly who has since won a Group 2 and 3 and is off to the Prix de L’Opera next - a highly-touted filly.

She also smashed up the St Leger-bound ALIGN THE STARS by 10 lengths in a Newmarket handicap and chased home INISHERIN on her second start.

As for Saturday, that was a good field that she beat with HAMISH and LION’S PRIDE, and she was subject to a huge pre-race gamble. All these things speak positively of her.

She looks like a really exciting filly for Andrew Balding and Juddmonte. Roll on the Fillies and Mares on Champions Day.

WEEKEND EYE-CATCHERS

BRIAN - SATURDAY 14.00 KEMPTON

BRIAN is a simple name for a horse and is as simple to back too - you wouldn’t be don if you followed him this season. He’s been incredibly solid so far as a juvenile, but the longer this season has gone on, the more he has improved.

He got his second career win at Newmarket in an auction stakes and then put his best foot forward when finishing third in the Sirenia Stakes at Kempton on Saturday. Having been switched off at the rear of the field, he stuck on nicely under Liam Keniry and was doing his best work late.

SYMBOL OF STRENGTH and JOUNCY look like fine yard sticks, and while he may not be winning a Group 1 anytime soon, he looks like a good contender for slightly lower targets in either Group 3’a or Listed company.

VADREAM - SATURDAY 15.35 HAYDOCK

The Sprint Cup was a bit of a messy race as plenty of horses didn’t get too much of a run, so the performance of VADREAM can probably be upgraded with a view to forgiving her penultimate run at Newmarket where she went off strong fave but was beaten in lesser company than what she faced Saturday (form which admittedly has been boosted by QUINAULT).

She had to be pulled right across the track Saturday by Hollie Doyle and then she stayed on to run into a nice place before slightly fading at the line.

She’s always been a horse that likes softer conditions, and while it wasn’t rattling ground on Saturday, she probably outran what was expected.

If she heads to the British Champions Sprint, she would have to be of big interest if the ground turns to mud.

PUROSANGUE - SUNDAY 16.00 YORK

Nicknamed the Ferrari, we have followed this lad since his debut. He was expected to win yesterday in his favoured conditions - a Listed race in the mud, and arguably he should have done. When PUROSANGUE needed a route home, Oisin was in two minds - stick to the rail or move out and over take. His only choice was the latter which gave himself too much to do and alas, he was beaten a head. We’re sure Oisin will want that race back.

The Ferrari is ready to win again.

RISK ON

Bar bankers in LUTHER and recent preview wins in KALPANA and SYMBOL OF STRENGTH, we haven’t stopped hitting the seconds - PUROSANGUE yesterday, SHALADAR, SEAPLANE and AWAAL on Friday, we’ve never had a run of near misses like it. SHALADAR and Norm’s bet SEAPLANE were hard to watch. We’re getting close to the bull run and the ground is in our favour today:

14.05 INVESTMENT MANAGER 

The pricing doesn’t make sense in this. PADDY DE POLE needs quick ground and if it was that today, then he wouldn’t get beat. But it’s the other extreme today, heavy ground, a deep surface that Tizzard’s needs. At 9/4 we think he should be closer to 6/4, maybe even 6/4 on! Trusting there is nothing wrong with him, we’re going to take advantage of what we think is wrong pricing and invest!

15.15 COCONUT TWIST

This race is full of fast ground horses and this time, we think the market has it right - squeezing in COCONUT TWIST, who will love the deep ground today and should be the horse to beat. 10/3 is a small bet owed to the fact we’re still learning about the trainer. Small.

We were going to play Bowen’s horse in the bumper but there is a very big gamble on the THE EXPENSIVE ONE for the in-form Twiston Davies yard. THE EXPENSIVE ONE is well related (a half to THE NEW ONE) and might just have needed more time. We still like ALAN DE BANKS for the race - he’s a proper stayer and should enjoy this ground but we’ll leave until the start of the race because we wouldn’t want him to drift any more. We will tweet on X.

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