Equinties - Breeders Cup day 1

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The Breeders Cup is the Royal Ascot equivalent for America and every year it doesn’t disappoint.

The quality and competitiveness of the races makes it so thrilling and it is not an easy betting weekend. The hard luck stories can be counted in the double digits.

Today are the Juvenile races, the future stars of the sport. O’Brien and Appleby throw their big darts today with MEDITATE for O’Brien in the Fillies Turf and SILVER KNOTT for Appleby in the Colts Turf. Both have an excellent chance and are worthy favourites.

CAVE ROCK on the dirt at 21.00 goes for naughty boy Bob Baffert. CAVE ROCK has won his first 3 starts to date which include 2 Gr1s by a combined 10 lengths. Comparisons with his late father ARROGATE have been widely talked about.

One of the races of the meeting is the Turf Sprint at 19:00 with 4 horses in with an outstanding chance. As always Wesley Ward has talked up his filly LOVE REIGNS as if losing is out of the question, Burke is letting his filly DRAMATISED do the talking for her, THE PLATINUM QUEEN is rapid and PERSIAN FORCE is a serious threat taking on the fillies.

All in all, this looks like a belting evening of racing. Let’s dive in.

Headline Roundup

SEDGEFIELD incident abandons racing 

Following a horrific incident that saw two horses fatally injured in the fifth race at Sedgefield yesterday, racing was abandoned at the track due to safety concerns. 

Donald McCain’s SWEET AUBURN, a six-year-old mare, suffered an injury when turning for home and Ruff Jefferson’s THERMUSA broke down after the second-last hurdle – racing was abandoned after that following an inspection by jockeys, trainers, and race officials. 

It was a horrible watch, makes you feel sick to the stomach (even worse if you own horses yourself). A sad moment that really makes you think twice about things.

We are very sorry for everyone connected to the horses.  

Interestingly, the clerk of the course, Michael Naughton, said that it was not the ground that caused the incidents and that the “adverse camber” could be the reason for the fatality of SWEET AUBURN.

More:

BAYSIDE BOY off to stud 

BAYSIDE BOY, the winner of the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes last month on Champions Day, has been retired to stud and will stand at Ballylinch Stud. 

Roger Varian’s three-year-old (shockingly) beat MODERN GAMES and JADOOMI over the straight mile at Ascot at odds of 33/1 – he also finished up the backside of NATIVE TRAIL and LUXEMBOURG as a two-year-old in two separate Group 1 events.  

Bought by Richard Ryan of Teme Valley at the Tatts October Yearling Book 2 Sale for 200,000gns two years ago and raced in partnership with Ballylinch Stud, the NEW BAY colt will head off to stud for the 2023 covering season. That’s good business.

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Future stars Friday

Today marks the opening day of the 2022 Breeders’ Cup over in Keeneland and it’s the two-year-olds who take to the TV screens with five races live on ITV3. 

The horses came out of quarantine this week and Matt Chapman has been doing his best to get all the latest info from the top yards. Earlier this week he provided an enjoyable interview with Aidan O’Brien (well worth the watch) where the master of Ballydoyle was keen on the chances of MEDITATE for tonight’s Gr1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf over a mile. (SPOILER ALERT - so are we).

She, alongside Richard Fahey’s MIDNIGHT MILE and Joseph O’Brien’s BASIL MARTINI, are the only Irish raiders in a competitive field of 14 for the contest.  

More than an hour earlier, the big forces of the two-year-old sprinting division lock horns for the final time this year as the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint features LOVE REIGNS, THE PLATINUM QUEEN, DRAMATISED, and PERSIAN FORCE. Woof! 

Richard Fahey’s COTAI GLORY filly just got up to win the Gr1 Prix de l’Abbaye last month and has been given a decent break in preparation for today - is she your idea of the winner? Didn’t think so, nor ours.

Charlie Appleby and Godolphin hold a strong hand in the final Gr1 race of the day, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, as SILVER KNOTT sits at the top of the market at a shade of odds-against – HOLLOWAY BOY did a good enough job of franking the Gr3 Autumn Stakes form by finishing third in the Gr1 Vertem Futurity Stakes at Doncaster behind AUGUSTE RODIN and this son of LOPE DE VEGA looks sure to improve.  

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Breeders Cup Previews

19:00 JUVENILE TURF SPRINT

The Juvenile Turf Sprint kicks the day/our evening off.

Two Year Old King Wesley Ward has won this race for the last 3 years. Pretty impressive considering this race has only been in the Championship since 2018. LOVE REIGNS is trained by Ward, she was all the rage leading into Royal Ascot but finished in 4th in the Queen Mary. She has since impressed in America breaks from stall 2.

DRAMATISED won the Queen Mary, she smashed the field. She was supposed to be the No1 2yo filly but disappointed in the Lowther Stakes over 6 furlongs at York.

PLATINUM QUEEN has since taken her crown. She was 13th in the Queen Mary, but had missed the break and had a bit of a shocker. However, since Ascot she has won a Group 1 and was second in a Group 1 both against older horses. Breaks from stall 12 which will make life hard.

PERSIAN FORCE and MISCHIEF MAGIC are repping the boys. Both ran in the Gr1 Prix Morny behind Blackbeard, finishing 3rd and 4th respectively. Unfortunately for PF he has ran into Blackbeard and Little Big Bear all summer, although he was in front of Blackbeard at Ascot. Stall 6 is fine and he is quite a nice price at 8/1. MISCHIEF MAGIC is 10/1, breaks from stall 5. He has some improvement to do, but Buick will give him that chance. The Americans have barely been mentioned. Let’s hope this race comes back home.

Our view: DRAMATISED breezed well earlier in work and she’s flying and proves an ew play to hedge the win bet on Wards LOVE REIGNS.

20:20 JUVENILE FILLIES TURF (MILE)

Aiden O’Brien is 0 from 15 runners, that said he has had the runner up twice at Keeneland though. This year he sends MEDITATE over who should go off favourite.

MEDITATE has come second in two Group 1s this year, once on soft at the Curragh where she ran out of puff and she got collared at Newmarket behind Lezoo. That’s the best form this side of the pond.

MIDNIGHT MILE won the Oh So Sharp Stakes, Group 3 at Newmarket on her second start. She could well be improving. Both Meditate and MM are by No Nay Never, the best 2yo sire on the planet. Stall 12 won’t be easy but she’ll have Meditate in stall 10 to track.

The Yanks look strong in the market. PLEASANT PASSAGE and FREE LOOK filled the forecast in the grade 2 Miss Grillo. Chad Brown trains Free Look and he is Americas No1 turf trainer. The Miss Grillo stakes was PP’s second run so entitled to come on bundles for it. Both have nice draws in 5 and 4.

DELIGHT was a $400k 2yo, she won the Gr2 Jessamine Stakes by 5 lengths at Keeneland. She’ll love the firm ground and she could stick around at the end. G LAURIE is trained by Graham Motion who is an Englishman training near New York. She has Buick in the plate. Only ran twice but she was 3rd in a Grade 1 on her second start behind LAST CALL who Dettori is on. 16s and 18s for those two suggest minor honours.

Our view: Boring but MEDITATE for us (she’s the Ballydoyle NAP). If MIDNIGHT MILE can navigate well from the draw, she’s one to chance at a bigger price.

21:40 BREEDERS CUP JUVENILE TURF (MILE)

SILVER KNOTT looks the best horse in the race, he’s the one they all have to beat. Charlie Appleby has won the race 3 times and another win will put him tied with Aidan O’Brien as the most successful trainer in the race. SK has won a brace of Gr3s and been third (last) in a Gr2 although I don’t think the latter was his true running, it was soft that day at Doncaster and that may have inconvenienced him. The form of his Autumn run on his last start reads well with the 2nd and 3rd going on to run well in a Gr1. Stall 4 is good and he’ll be hitting the line hard. SK’s chief rival is undoubtedly VICTORIA ROAD who is trained, ridden and owned by the most successful connections in the race. He’s experienced in his racing and also travelling having contested his last two races, a listed and Gr3, in France. The form of his listed has received a boost with the 2nd horse going on to win a Gr1 but all his form is in France and this year I don’t think it stacks up. He’s only won by narrow margins and I think in this company he could be held. I’M VERY BUSY leads the way for the US contingent in the betting, he lost to MAJOR DUDE lto in a Gr2 and is shorter in the betting. The thoughts would be I’M VERY BUSY was having only his second start and with that experience under his belt he should improve past MAJOR DUDE. ANDTHEWINNERIS looks to be improving and hit the line well over a mile in a Gr2. He holds a similar profile to the others where he is a Gr2 or Gr3 winner coming in to this.

Our view:I think history has shown us that it’s best to stay with the European runners in this race and the best of them is SILVER KNOTT. Close to NAP material.

Risk On

13.58 DE LEGISLATOR Short but won a hot point and could be class. Should just be leverage for any bets. We like LADY ADARE tomorrow for Fry. Leverage on her makes her 4.5/1.