Equinties - Bowen or Deutsch?

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Gm Equinauts

The racing has been pretty shit since the Christmas period and as a result, bar the usual tedious hum of Festival ante-post shit chat, Racing Twitter has been a fairly muted place… UNTIL THIS.

And boy did this race really divide opinion.

On one side you’ve got the Sean Bowen party, mainly built up of generic ‘racing’ handles who have little to offer but endlessly retweeting race repeats and trying to be the first to put up declarations (that no one gives af about) with a sprinkle of genuine racing fans, all singing ride of the month from Bowen (see below).

The other side… well, it’s the other side; a plethora of mainly butt-hurt Venetia backers complimented again by those genuine race fans serving up radical candor to Deutsch.

What do I think?

I’m firmly in the ‘Deutsch lost it’ party. He’s got to get that race won imo. The Ffos Las run in isn’t that long

and the way the horse came out of his hands at the last suggests he’s got plenty in the tank to see it out). People will say his horse didn’t find much in the run in but the race wasn’t lost in the run in, it was lost two, maybe even three out when Deutsch was cruising where at this point Bowen’s had the gun to the head of BEST TRITION for a long time.

It was a good ride by Bowen but fuck me, it’s his job to ride out a horse! Would you reading this expect to win employee of the month for just hitting a deadline? No. Don’t get me wrong, I REALLY rate Bowen (both of them) but this time he only picked up the pieces from the shitshow put on by Deutsch.

Venetia is one of my favourite trainers to back, especially during the winter months but more and more, Deutsch is putting me off backing them. He should have sat this on L’Homme Presse

and his ride on GEORGES SAINT before Christmas was fucking horrendous.

There’s been a few signs recently where I don’t think he’s up to the standard of where he should be given the rides he gets but then again, I think there’s an ever increasing divide between the good and bad jocks… a chronic problem perhaps stemming from the grass roots stages of jockey life.

Anyway, that’s my view. Now let’s dive in.

Headline Roundup

Gold Cup hero to return?

The 2021 Ascot Gold Cup winner, SUBJECTIVIST, could be set for a return to the track for the first time in over a year and a half at the Saudi Cup undercard next month.

Having beaten PRINCESS ZOE, SPANISH MISSION, and STRADAVARIUS in the Group 1 Gold Cup in June 2021, the now six-year-old sustained a potentially career-threatening leg injury during the victory at the Royal Meeting and he hasn’t been seen since.

Fast forward to the start of 2023 and trainer Charlie Johnston believes the Gr3 Red Sea Turf over 1m7f could be a potential race to return in.

He said: “Entries closed yesterday morning for the Saudi Cup meeting and Subjectivist has been entered in the Red Sea Turf.

“He's been back in work since early October and has been cantering all the way through December and into January now. There's still a long way to go–we haven't started to turn the screw just yet with any faster work.

“Every day the fingers are crossed watching him, but so far so good.”

Laying down the Law

Another Gold Cup winner (sort of) but from the ‘other’ code, GA LAW, this season’s Paddy Power Gold Cup winner is set to return later this month at either Ascot or Doncaster.

The 2m5f bet365 Handicap Chase at Ascot on Clarence House Chase Day, won last year by PHOENIX WAY, or the SkyBet Handicap Chase at Doncaster look like the likely targets for Jamie Snowden’s seven-year-old.

With an official rating of 148 currently, a decisive win not could see him rise into the high 150s if the BHA Handicapper gets his way – with this in mind, could he head down the Ryanair route?

The SINNDAR gelding is currently priced up at 66/1 for the Grade 1 contest and you would say that the New Course at Cheltenham should suit better over his Old Course success in November, something trainer Snowden agrees with.

It could be a very interesting season for GA LAW this season, let’s see how it pans out for him!

The Christmas Carroll’s haven’t stopped yet

Tony Carroll produced a massive upset at Wolverhampton racecourse yesterday as his seven-race maiden comfortably turned over SERGEANT PEP, priced at 1/9, over five furlongs.

MY GENGHIS, a homebred MUKHADRAM gelding, was sent off at 16/1 and made all to upset Clive Cox’s party.

Post-race, Carroll said: "Of course when you get a 1-9 on shot it's always difficult to think that you can beat them, but never be frightened of one. He's not short of speed and has shown that in his last runs as well."

I think it’s fair to say TC was as surprised as everyone (namely us) with this one, despite the fact he finished the day completing a double with NIGHT TRAVELLER at Chelmsford.

More:

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Ludlow bumper 

Be warned this is a mares bumper and you know what I think of mares - unreliable to say the least (time of the month etc etc) which is why HONEYSUCKLE is such a modern day phenomenon but let’s try break this race down.

There are a few nice ped’s in this and all eyes will be drawn to the LUCCIA colours of ALLEGRO FORTE for Alan King. This filly is actually a half to LUCCIA and HOOPER who both won bumpers, which might sound fairly bullish but she’s sired by HIGHLAND REEL who has had a fairly shit start to life in the shagging barn. I don’t think she’ll be as good as her siblings tbh and although, like Twiston’s yesterday she carries f all weight, I’m taking her on.

Hendo’s at the top of the market and his horses always, always have to be feared in bumpers but the two I do like today are a little further down the market in BETHKA and PICNIC IN THE PARK. Both from yards who target bumpers, both by WALK IN THE PARK and both out of mares who have produced good horses.

BETHKA for JJ is a half to MR GREY SKY (unbeaten in bumpers) and the talented DANNY WHIZBANG. PICNIC IN THE PARK is a half to STONY MOUNTAIN (once rated 144) and bumper winner GREAT TRY.

They’d be my two but as always, the market will shape where your money should go.

Todays best stats

4 shorties with the best stats today.

The money has come for his stable mate but GOLDEN SPEECH 14.45 has had his nuts off now and Appleby lands >1 in 4 with first time out geldings. Furthermore he wears cheekpieces - Appleby is nearly 40% when slapping them on first time.

FURNICOE 17.15 reps Stott and Appleby who have a bullish 40% sr together all time.

TYLOS in the 18.45 reps Archie Watson who lands 1 in 3 when debuting horses from different yards. (Warning: Rumours are this horse shit all over a >100 horse in work last week but then burst a blood vessel after. This negative is the only reason he’s not in Risk On today).

HARRY MAGNUS 19.45 goes for Hills who runs a near 40% sr at Southwell. Sole runner for yard today.

Risk on

Gonna watch the bumper market again where there might be a bet but given the racing is still so poor in the UK, we’re having a little play in Meydan.

14.35 WALK OF STARS

16.55 ALFAREEQ TP

Small 6/1 double on the two Godolphin horses. No size moved