Equinties - boring stable tours

Gm Equinauts

Something quite monumental has occurred in Australia. It’s so big, it’s grabbed the attention of the nation.

No, we’re not talking about Big John getting detained by Australian police for an invalid Visa. Although tbf that is big news in a way.

But something called the ‘Melbourne Cup hype’ is really starting to rev up now. The biggest handicap in the world really does grab the attention of Australia, and in the process, fans from countries in the UK, Ireland, France, USA, and more all try to keep an eye on it, if they can stay awake for it!

The big headline this morning is big fave SIR DELIUS has been RULED OUT of it!

The vets have been causing carnage in recent years and they’ve ripped open the betting markets today.

We’re all for safe racing but you have to say it’s kind of odd he’s been absolutely fine to race and win three of his four starts since moving to Australia but now suddenly isn’t safe enough to race?

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

THE SKELTON TEAM

The stable tours are flying in thick and fast for the jumps season, and you will probably see a number of trainers say different things about different horses. It’s the beauty of trainers trying to offer some information into the wider world, but not all, as they don’t want to give too much away.

Dan Skelton has done a stable tour with AtTheRaces, and to be honest, it’s a load of sh*te.

We’ve read through the whole damn thing and honestly, throw it in the bin. The short of it is, every horse will be progressive and for those who aren’t spring time horses (which is most of them) they need rain and with the exception of the odd use of ‘smart’ thrown in as a lazy adjective, nothing else is given.

Okay, we know trainers have to protect the interest of the owners but the lack of transparency because of that is the reason stable tours are so impotent.

Dan is the new master plotter. Ask some better questions rather than allow him to mug every one off.

Soft, lazy and weak work. We’re actually thinking of getting involved and shaking the game up on this.

Anyway, back to the obvious ones (THE NEW LION isn’t included, because we all know his plan. Fighting Fifth, another race, and then the Champion Hurdle).

DOYEN QUEST will come on plenty for his run at Chepstow ahead of the Grade 2 Rising Stars Novices Chase at Wincanton (he’ll also like good ground), the Midlands National (Saturday after the Cheltenham Festival) could be for CATCH HIM DERRY, and the Graded novice chase at the Cheltenham November Meeting is being lined up for COUNTRY MILE.

FORTUNE DE MER could go to the Cheltenham October Meeting for the Grade 2 novice hurdle, LE BEAU MADRIK is one for the Listed Cheltenham bumper at the November meeting, and MADARA will probably reappear at Cheltenham Trials Day ahead of his target of the Plate.

Just on FORTUNE DE MER, a lot of people got on their high horse after his Uttoxeter hurdles debut because Harry Skelton gave him an easy time of things. Yes, he probably did give him an easy time, but that’s because he looked like really hard work. If we’re honest, his bumper form isn’t that good, and if Skelton really is stopping him for something, then he will still have to improve. We’re not convinced.

Speaking of FORTUNE DE MER, KEOPS DES BORDES beat him by five lengths in a three-mile PtP in April 2024. The Skelton team thought he was as good, if not better, than FORTUNE DE MER last season, and Skelton admitted that he “really likes him a lot”.

As if we planned this perfect segway, let’s mention a few youngsters/unexposed horses that Skelton is quite sweet on. KEOPS DES BORDES is one, HITINTHEHEADLINES “should go close in a bumper”, EDELAK is a former Johnny Murtagh horse who “would make a smart juvenile hurdler”, GIANTSGRAVE needs it to rain plenty but Skelton really likes him, and MINELLA MARATHON (as his name suggests) will want a trip in time to reach his full potential.

MYDADDYPADDY could be a forward one as he bolted up in a Huntingdon bumper in March, SHEEZER DANCER is going straight over hurdles (bullish), which could mean she is one for the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle, and REAL QUARTZ could be one to start over two miles at Wetherby. He is, again, a “really nice horse” according to Skelton.

It goes without saying, this list isn’t gospel and we really wouldn’t take too much awsy from it.

THE SPONSORS RACE

Paul Nicholls had a plan for CALDWELL POTTER this season, and that plan had him starting out at Newton Abbot on Saturday in an Intermediate Chase before going to either the Betfair Chase or Paddy Power Gold Cup.

Well, as is the case with lots of jump racing currently, a lack of rain has put that plan on the scrap heap, as he will not travel to Newton Abbot. So, where next - could he do a STAGE STAR and pitch up at the Paddy Power Gold Cup off 155 first time out?

He could, and it would be fun, but he probably won’t do, as the Betfair Chase is his likely starting place this season. Nicholls said: “I was a bit nervous without a bit of rain coming, even though Newton Abbot have done a good job watering, and to be honest we worked them all this morning and we think two or three more weeks won’t do him any harm.

“He’ll have entries for the Paddy Power Gold Cup and the Betfair Chase. We would be slightly favouring the Betfair Chase, but no decisions have definitely been made yet.

“The Betfair Chase would give him a few extra weeks and we’ll have a look and see what’s entered in what and see, but he’s in good shape.

“If we had got plenty of rain this week and the ground was genuinely good to soft or soft after rain then we would have gone to Newton Abbot and it would have been nice timing before Haydock, but he goes well fresh so it’s not a problem.

“There is no point making too many predictions and he’ll tell us when we run him. My thoughts about running in the Betfair Chase is that at least we will have an idea if he truly does stay three miles and if he can run at that level over a trip.

“But he’s not slow and well capable of running over a little bit shorter, so all irons are in the fire and it will be one of Cheltenham or Haydock.”

It seems like the Betfair Chase is his preferred destination, and we think this is probably right. The lack of a run is a killer no matter which race you go to, as Nicholls tends to bring them on for the first outing.

The hustle and bustle of a Paddy Power, especially if you haven’t specifically trained him for it, could really bring him out of rhythm, and that’s not something you really want to do in November with the whole season ahead of you.

Start him off at Haydock, on slower ground, and see what happens. If he gets beaten, and beaten by far, it’s not the end of the word. You’ll still have a Grade 1 horse that will improve for fitness, and you can continue plotting away through the season.
However, if he is to be this Gold Cup horse that Nicholls thinks he is, a decent run (doesn’t have to be a winning one) in the Betfair would be necessary.

DOWN UNDER TROUBLE

Melbourne Cup news closer to home see’s episode three of ‘Willie Mullins tries to win the Melbourne Cup’ air soon.

Well, technically, Mullins has been to the Cup more times than this, but the fiasco of him having runners recently really kicked off in 2023. Previously in this saga, VAUBAN was considered a “certainty” in 2023 only to finish a lowly 14th, seven places behind his stablemate ABSURDE. One year later, he improved slightly to finish a whole three places better (with ABSURDE climbing two places himself).

Both times, Mullins sent his runners straight to the race. Last year, he sent them over closer to the time of the race, so they were in quarantine for less time, but that didn’t seem to change much. So, for ABSURDE this year, he is actually going over for a run, and in classic Mullins style, it will bring him on for it.

The Ebor winner is lining up in Saturday’s A$5,000,000 Caulfield Cup, and this race is often referred to as the world’s fastest 1m4f Group 1 handicap. That description of the race is probably not what ABSURDE wants for his first start since Australia (let’s not forget, he’s a two-mile hurdler who has won multiple times over 1m6f) but, with the Melbourne Cup being his big plan, a run this weekend is not the thing that will determine whether Mullins’ Australian holiday is a success or not.

On ABSURDE, David Casey said: “We've come out early to get a run into him this time. We thought the Caulfield Cup would suit him.

"He's used to the travelling, and he perked up when he got here. He recognises where he is and he's enjoying the sun on his back."

If there is one from this area of the world to win this weekend, it could well be MEYDAAN for the Crisford’s. They’re unsure if he will stay the full trip of the Melbourne Cup, so this is the target, and his chance is now in the hands of the stalls gods.

Ed Crisford said: “He's going for the Caulfield Cup and has come out of his quarantine in great shape. I fly over there tonight but evidently Cup fever is taking hold. 
“His preparation has been excellent by all accounts and we just need to see where he is drawn as that can be a factor.

“Beyond that he could well head for the Melbourne Cup, where he will be up in trip, but we think he's more mature now than when he ran over a mile and six [furlongs] in the Queen's Vase last year, and should find the distance well within his compass.”

So, if you’re up early on Saturday morning (7.15am, to be exact) and want to watch a good race, the Caulfield Cup is for you.

RISK ON

We’re slightly out of form this week without firing too many bullets. Today we’re only playing the bumper horse and these two:

14.22 WHITE RIOT

This is a nice little heat and see’s Neil King’s bumper winner odds on. We do think that both him and SHABALKO d’HERM need further in slower ground. Uttoxeter have put 3mm of water on but the ground should still be quick enough and this is perfect for WHITE RIOT with the other two run off their feet. Pauling loved this horse when he had him and he finally got his head in front on quick ground for Fergal beating a horse who Dan Skelton thought was a certainty. Same conditions today so worth an ew and hope he’s fit enough to beat the big plodders on this unseasonal ground. 9/2 ew on most books.

17.25 HIGH OPINION

A small ew on a well handicapped horse who comes alive this time of year around this mark. 10/1 ew half bet.

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