Equinties - BMG vs GDC II

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Gm Equinauts

Two bad bets yesterday in the newsletter yesterday but it's been a good April with several max and strong bet's landed and more lined up (cough MONDAY cough). It's actually been a brilliant year so far with our best ever Cheltenham, a profitable Aintree and a bullish start to the flat season with Amo banging in winners and Eve starting to fire up.

If you keep a bank (you should), you wont miss the temporary loan to the bookies, put it that way.

Mullins' yoke NINTH LOCK in the Punchestown last yesterday, for the more sophisticated punters amongst you, was the bet of the day (tipped up via the Intern who is a market maker for BGP management).

In such a big field of better bred horses, that thing was never finishing in the top 3 yet it held favoritism all day just because its 'Willies in the bumper'. LOL.

The TOTE Fantasy features Punchestown again today. The betting is so hard at Punchestown so dont do your b*llocks, maintain an interest in all the big races without the financial commitment by setting up your stable and adding it to our league using code: QHZ36G.

Now, let's dive tf in.

Punchestown

Grade 1 Irish Mirror Novice Hurdle

The first Grade 1 contest of day two is the fourth race on the card and two horses are trying three miles for the first time.

The first of which is the odds-on favourite GAELIC WARRIOR following his second to IMPAIRE ET PASSE in the Ballymore.

He stayed on the best behind a very nice winner but only beat CHAMP KIELY by a length – it’s a short price to be taking about him here considering there were plenty of rumours after the DRF that he would actually step back in trip to the Supreme, but he is the clear class animal here.

The other is the only mare in the field as following her second to ASHROE DIAMOND lto, WHATCOULDHAVEBEEN is up against the boys for the first time since her maiden hurdle second at Cork in January.

The ASHROE DIAMOND form is good in the mares’ division but there would be a small worry about how it stands up here – she did try to make all and was kicked on early by Aidan Kelly to use her stamina, so a step up in trip is interesting.

AFFORDALE FURY sprung a surprise in the Albert Bartlett thanks to his second at 150/1 and since then, two of the finishers (LETSBECLEARABOUTIT and STAY AWAY FAY) have been beaten since, but they did run good races at Aintree.

His RPR of 151 was 17 pounds better than his previous RPR from three starts before so he is a bit of an unknown – his run when falling at Navan behind DAWN RISING was good, however.

Grade 1 Punchestown Gold Cup

Thanks to a quick divestment of shares in BRAVEMANSGAME, the BMG GDC rematch is ON!

And oh boy are the prices are different this time around.

It’s GALOPIN DES CHAMPS at 1/3) with BRAVEMANSGAME a juicy 5/1, ahead of Ryanair winner ENVOI ALLEN, the ever-loveable HEWICK, Ultima second FASTORSLOW and FURY ROAD chucked in there to make it a proper line up.

Willie Mullins’ 180-rated seven-year-old was very good from the start of his second circuit as he was a touch slow with his jumping early on at Cheltenham, but it is very hard to knock him. Could you make a case to say they are too far a part in the betting?

BRAVEMANSGAME, now in the sole ownership of Bryan Drew, is trying to emulate his ex-stablemate CLAN DES OBEAUX by rocking up to Punchestown and taking their biggest prize.

He was the second-best on the day and may be second-best in every race he turns up against GDC, however, we shouldn’t take away from how good he is.

It will be tough for the others to get into it you would assume.

ENVOI ALLEN hasn’t been amazing over three miles recently as he won a Ladbrokes Champion Chase by catching a few off-guard, HEWICK could run on into a fair third if the ground is better, FURY ROAD may not truly stay, and FASTORSLOW needs to step up to this company.

All eyes on this race.

Grade 1 Punchestown Champion Bumper

This looks to be a great bumper and the markets headed by Cheltenham champ A DREAM TO SHARE who is looking to do a hat trick of Grade 1 bumpers for John Kiely and John Gleeson.

He came through a good bit of traffic at Cheltenham, beating IT’S FOR ME who reappears here, to win impressively showing he can win a tactical race – he is already single digits for both the Supreme & Ballymore next year and he could be something special for JP McManus who knows how to buy one (understatement of the year). That said...

I'm still not convinced on his breeding.

This will be the first time that ADTS takes on the highly-touted TULLYHILL who won on his debut at Gowran Park by three lengths. He's by MARTALINE who sire's brilliant bumper horses. In fact, MARTALINE sires the fave in the mares bumper too in FUN FUN FUN.

Could it be a MARTALINE bumper double today? I think so. The double pays 9's and lunch money is down.

Bought for £220,000 at the Tatts Cheltenham November sale, he’s taken time to come to hand, but he won with his head in his chest and wasn’t asked a single question by Patrick Mullins, so what he finds off the bridle is unknown.

Of the bigger priced contenders, RATH GAUL BOY gave 20lbs to ADTS on his last appearance on-course at Tipperary and lost by four lengths – the time off would be a small worry, but he is interesting now back and thrown into this kind of company.

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NEW FEATURE - YOUNG BLOOD

Notes on pedigree, attractive crosses and sales trends

17.40 Lingfield

PASTICHE carries a winning penalty but has Buick on board. She’s by ZOUSTAR who does so well in Australia where they are a large population of Danehill line mares, this filly’s broodmare sire is HOLY ROMAN EMPEROR who is by Danehill.

BELL SONG is by DEEP IMPACT's son SAXON WARRIOR. She had PISTACHE in front on debut then bumped into ZOOLOGY at Southwell on her next start, did well to finish 3rd. More to come but she's a terror at home.

INVERLOCHY has a smart pedigree; she’s OTTOMAN FLEET's sister. Her debut was promising although it was 347 days ago. Was 4th behind MAWJ (r110), BELIEVING was in there (r98), and INVERLOCHY beat FAIRY CROSS (r104) and DANDY ALYS (r97).

REGAL FANFARE is a sister to Regal Reality who is also by INTELLO, making her a full sister. He was rated 121 for Stoutey. Difficult to gauge if this filly is any good just yet.

In short, Crisford and Doyle have a healthy 27% sr at Lingfield it would be no surprise to see INVERLOCHY shape with promise and could be a bet today - we'll watch the market as BELL SONG’s getting squeezed and her recent run means she'll be fit. That said we know she's a handful at home and tends to run away with them so could lose her head/blow up on track and be one to take on despite the gamble. Watch our tweets.

Risk on

Be careful with betting and staking this weekend, WE HAVE A MAX BET MONDAY.

A bit like LITTLE MISS DANTE, we have been waiting weeks for this thing to get an entry. The yard aren't gamblers either so will be a great price.

Staking and banking

There was a lot of positive feedback recently from people benefitting from our staking advice. Well, and general bank roll tips too. So we'll keep it here as a reminder.

If you want to take punting seriously and use racing as a value add to your life, keep a betting bank, protect it at all times (none of this 'ah we're on a bull run, I'll stick a few stupid bets on') and stick to risking the % stakes, upping notional as the bank grows. Betting banks will change your punting forever.

Help keep a healthy bank by betting less and using the TOTE Fantasy game to feed the chimp.

TOTE Fantasy tip: Punchestown is always tough anyway but given we tend not to bet Irish racing in this newsletter, here's a few for your TOTE Fantasy. We will have the aforementioned bumper double in our stable and also THREE CARD BRAG in the 16.15. Why? We backed him for Cheltenham where he didn't finish up the hill, back to 2m4f will help.

Create your stable and use code QHZ36G to join the BGP league here: