Equinties - Blazing row

Equinties - The Weekender

March 08, 2023

Equinties

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I'm BACK and today is for the Ladies!

It looks like I've not missed too much since being away... the usual shit chat of counting down the days until Cheltenham on Racing Twitter, the usual shit chat of counting down the days until Cheltenham aaaand the usual shit chat of counting down the days until Cheltenham.

That said, one bit of buzz I quite enjoyed reading from Les Alps was the war on whether the yard rumours regarding BLAZING KHAL were to be believed. On one side you've got the BK backers who, while wearing their tin foil hats, think that the trainer is pumping out fake news to put everyone away. And on the other side, the 'racing is honest' guys who want to believe the rumours and couldn't possibly fathom that a trainer would lie to make excuses... there's hardly an in-between.

Let's look at the facts.

He got a nasty cut to the fetlock (seen here).

Now, yeh it is bad only for where it is on his leg (the fetlock). The photo looks as if the cut has been bandaged - so possibly more recent a photo than on the day of the Boyne Hurdle. @patcashhealy took the photo but I cant find a date for it. If...IF the photo is recent, then the sell off on the exchange is warranted as that would concern me if it was my horse but there is a big possibility the cut would have healed by now.

The yard have said a bit of work Friday will determine whether he goes. I'd say it's less about the work and more about whether the cut has healed. Time will tell and I prefer something else for the race anyway.

Now, let's dive in.

Headline roundup

BLAZING KHAL setback

Whether you want to believe it or not, we could be without the current Stayers' Hurdle favourite at this year's Cheltenham Festival.

Charles Byrnes has come out this week to report that his leading Festival hope has had a "poor preparation" since his Grade 2 Boyne Hurdle win last month due to a cut on the back of a fetlock during that success.

It could be as soon as Friday before we know about his chances for the Stayers' Hurdle, as Byrnes has said: "We gave him a small bit of work at the Curragh this morning. It's gone late in the day now so we'll see how he works on Friday and make a final decision.

However, despite these reports coming from top media outlets, including the Racing Post, a few people on Racing Twitter are not having it.

It'll be a nervy few days for ante-post backers.

More:

Vive La Francais 

It looks like France have a horse to look forward to over the jumps as IL EST FRANCAIS extended his unbeaten record over hurdles to five yesterday at Auteuil.

Trained in joint partnership between Noel George & Amanda Zetterholm, something that happened in late February, the five-year-old have four pounds away to the second, KEPTEEN, and won by a length and a half... obvs I backed him.

In what was his first run of the season, George was very pleased with the run, as he said: “He’s gonna improve for that - he would have taken a good blow turning in and he’ll improve a lot next time, but he’s a very exciting horse.”

The Grande Course de Haies, the French Champion Hurdle, on May 20th is his ultimate aim and he may take in a trial race before, but nothing is decided.

Weekend performances 

Flying visit through this section.

BENSON won the feature handicap hurdle of the weekend in the Morebattle - £100,000 bonus for winning at the Festival in either in County or Pipe (races entered for). Will he do this though - probably not.

LE MILOS backers (us ffs) were left in disarray as the Grand National hope was beaten at 1.01 in-running by EMPIRE STEEL.

And THE BIG BITE got back to winning ways in the Greatwood Gold Cup at Newbury having jumped like a buck throughout.

A good result for some young pretenders...

THEATRE going for GLORY 

Nicky Henderson will hold a strong team for this year’s Mares’ Hurdle as connections confirmed that THEATRE GLORY would be supplemented for the 2m4f Grade 1 contest.

The six-year-old daughter of FAME AND GLORY bolted up at Warwick in February to beat the nifty MOLLY OLLYS WISHES lto and she had the possibility of the Coral Cup, however, she is set to take on the likes of LOVE ENVOI, BRANDY LOVE, HONEYSUCKLE, and stablemate EPATANTE in the race immediately following the Champion Hurdle.

Having been as short as 3.55 on the exchanges for the Mares’ Hurdle, MARIE’S ROCK, stablemate and last year’s winner, is now as big as 10.0 and can be backed at 6.2 for the Stayers’ Hurdle.

With Seven Barrows set to field two in the Mares’ Hurdle, surely MARIE’S ROCK will step up in trip. All we know is the owners are very against it but old Nicky is desperate for it.

Things to consider?

Believe it or not, the Festival is six days away. Just. SIX. Days.

One aspect that is key to Prestbury Park’s biggest event is both trainer form and the ground (obviously) so we will highlight who is in top nick, who is hoping for a miracle and what the ground might be for the week...

Let's start with yard form. These are last years Festival winners:

Does their current form stack up?

Willie Mullins: 37% (unsurprising)

Gordon Elliott: 20% and three winners yesterday - bullish.

Henry de Bromhead: 0% from last 13 runners and 15 days since last win... bearish or saving something?

Paul Nicholls: 27% and a double on Saturday. Can Nicholls finally have a good festival?

Nicky Henderson: 15%, winner yesterday. Always ready for Cheltenham.

Joseph O’Brien: 13% and only one jumps winner in two weeks.

Gavin Cromwell: 20%

Venetia Williams: 9% and no winner in nine runners... does she need the rain to come?

Jessica Harrington: 0% and no jumps winner 73 days (24 runners). Tres bearish.

Dan Skelton: 15% is okay but does he have the fire power for Cheltenham?

As for the weather, rain is expected in Gloucestershire today and Friday - be careful with any ante-post bets as the ground could be way off what it currently is.

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Todays best stats

Only the two qualifiers today, steering clear of the desert rats.

All the FG's in the 14.40 have withdrawn leaving LADY WILBERRY warm fave for Burke who his 4 from 4 in handicap hurdles at course this year. Disclaimer: she's a maiden! (but got to be winning soon and dam won in slop).

WEWILLGOWITHPLANB 15.40 makes his handicap debut for Blandy who is 4 from 10 with handicap debutants. Disclaimer: not very profitable so would want to see it gambled.

Risk on

Any bets will be posted on twitter.