Equinties - Billy in blue

Author

BGP Capital
August 11, 2025

Equinties

Gm Equinauts

York is next week…one of the greatest flat meetings in the world. We can’t wait.

A HEADS UP:

Our standout stats section (which is flying (we’ll try run its p&l since we brought it back (probably be like a gazillion points profit))) means it’s harder work to comb through all the stats and make sure they align with the pedigree's. It’s a lot of time taken to do.

We’re now revealing them to weekender subscribers only.

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Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

SPRIGHTLY YOUNGSTERS

This weekend started in a bit of a weird way. Before a horse had even entered the starting stalls, we were shocked to our core, so much so that we started to question if our sport should even go ahead.

That’s because Joe Fanning was confirmed to ride LADY IMAN in the Nunthorpe.

Incredible. A hold-up horse trained by Ger Lyons in Ireland who is taking on the older sprinters for the first time is set to be partnered by… Joe Fanning.

No Colin Keane? Will Ryan Moore have a Ballydoyle ride?

Anyway, we’ve gotten over this news (just), but this story does provide a good link into a new piece of news, and it’s regarding juveniles in the Nunthorpe.
As a few of you will know from our LADY IMAN piece the other week, we love the fact that two-year-olds can run in the Nunthorpe.

They get a tonne of weight, and in a time where our current crop of sprinters is fairly poor, why not add a few new horses into the mix to ruffle some feathers.
Well, not only will LADY IMAN run, but connections have decided that they will supplement SPICY MARG for the contest.

The Alice Keppel winner put in a decent performance at Goodwood, and the vibe around her camp was one of relief because she was showing her ‘true self’ having been well-beaten at Newmarket and Ascot.

Connections were a bit windy about sending her to the Lowther Stakes, a race she is entered for, and it seems they were right to be, as the Nunthorpe is now her number one target. Also, Kieran Shoemark has been jocked off for a rather surprising new pilot.
Michael Bell, trainer, said: "Emma Banks came round yesterday evening and we had a board meeting about Spicy Marg. The upshot is that we plan to supplement her into the Nunthorpe next weekend if all is well. Harry Bentley is in the UK and, subject to Hong Kong Jockey Club approval, he'll take the ride.

“The clock gurus tell us the speed figures she posted at Goodwood were impressive, and she won the Alice Keppel in a time half a second faster than the Molecomb Stakes winner managed. On that evidence she deserves to take her chance, and another big factor is that her dam [Main Desire] won two stakes races on the Knavesmire herself.

“It’s a £40,000 punt if you like but, as she's already won more than £80,000, including bonuses, this year has paid for itself. It’s very sporting of Emma Banks to take the chance, as she often does."

That’s certainly one way to look at it. ‘Well, we’ve already won this much, so we’re basically playing with the house’s money.’

Bell isn’t a silly man. He has nice horses, but he doesn’t always have a world beater in the yard. For him, he has a speedy youngster in the yard who is on top form. She could regress next year. She could lose form because she’s a filly.

Why not strike while the iron is hot, and as we’ve already said, she gets a tonne of weight. We like the move.

Oh, and while we’re on the topic of the Nunthorpe, ARIZONA BLAZE will head to York after his impressive Group 2 Sapphire Stakes success.

Adrian Murray said: "It's all systems go for the Nunthorpe. Arizona Blaze is all speed and built like a proper sprinter. He has a huge backside and is full of muscle; he's got everything you want in a sprinter.

"We know he likes York, too. He ran a cracker in the big sales race there last year when he was just touched off, and the track seems to suit his style of running. It was always the intention to go back there for the Nunthorpe and, fingers crossed, he'll go close. We worked him the other morning and everybody was thrilled so we're looking forward to York."

BILLY IN BLUE

Buick, quite surprisingly, is 37 years old, and while Flat jockeys can go on for a while, Buick has probably started looking at his life after riding and at the moment, the obvious choice for his replacement is Billy Loughnane.

His current strike rate for Godolphin is very, very good (even if he has let a few Boughey horses down recently).

He rode his first Group 1 winner on the ever-loveable REBEL’S ROMANCE, and he also won the Group 3 Sweet Solera Stakes at Newmarket on DANCE TO THE MUSIC.

Let’s start with his maiden Group 1 win. Wow, what a moment for him, and what a horse as well. It’s funny how things play out and create a bit of a domino effect. William Buick would usually ride the horse, but he was sent to Deauville for SHADOW OF LIGHG in the Prix Maurice de Gheest. He was then a non-runner in France, so the whole reason he went over became irrelevant, but Loughnane was in position to ride REBEL’S ROMANCE in Germany, and now he is a Group 1-winning jockey.

As for REBEL’S ROMANCE, he is a proper one, a true iron horse of this generation. He deserves all the success he gets, and he is now a 5/1-shot for the Breeders’ Cup Turf in November, a race that Charlie Appleby is “working back from”.

As for Loughnane’s success in the Sweet Solera, the big story from the race was the drift DANCE TO THE MUSIC took in the market.

Having opened up at 7/4, she drifted all the way to 11/4 and still won. Weird (maybe ground related?). She’s now 14/1 for next year’s 1000 Guineas, but her market weakness on Saturday would be a worry for the future.

If they really thought she was this Group 1 animal in waiting, would they let her go off 11/4? Who knows. It may be a bit unwise to back her for the Guineas now until we gather a bit more information about her later this season.

Her rivals were also closing at the line. That doesn’t scream ‘future Classic winner’. Still, she gave Loughnane another Group winner, so fair play.

WEEKEND EYE-CATCHERS

KODI LION - SATURDAY 16.10 HAYDOCK

KODI LION is ready to win based on this weekend’s run. That’s a fairly bold statement to make, but he was absolutely smothered a few times at Haydock on Saturday before flying home to finish an eye-catching second. It was a seriously unlucky route through the field, and he probably would have won if not for the interference.

His mark of 91 is actually on the higher side, but he’s been fairly consistent all season, so he probably deserves his rating. There is a race in KODI LION before this season finishes.

TREASURE TIME - SATURDAY 16.30 ASCOT

The Shergar Cup may have been on our screens this weekend, but that’s doesn’t mean we can’t pick an eye-catcher or two from the event, and TREASURE TIME shaped well in fourth in the finale.

He probably hasn’t been the best-handicapped horse in recent runs, but he ran off 93 on Saturday and could get dropped a few on Tuesday. The front pair of EBT’S GUARD and URBAN LION probably benefitted from prominent track position to finish first and third, and while TREASURE TIME was there, he was still behind horses up the home straight.

If he gets himself down a few pounds, he is showing good signs that he can get back in the winners’ circle.

AUTHENTIC CHARM - SUNDAY 16.45 HAYDOCK

RISK ON

After a good run of things at the moment we were going to cancel today as the racing looked pretty bad. But we have found two hyper-speccy plays which deserve small stakes. It is gambling at the end of the day:

16.52 PRINCESS RASCAL & IVATT

PRINCESS RASCAL is a group horse in the making but they’re going for this to win the bonus money. Fellowes thinks a lot of IVATT who should be well handicapped with the yard finally coming into much deserved form - his horses are running out their skin at the moment. Rev forecast with two singles on each, larger one on PR who we think should win but the worry is the yard form.

We have one more bet which we’ll tweet on X @equinties!

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