Equinties - big targets next

Gm Equinauts

Well, the Melbourne Cup happened when we were all tucked up nicely in bed during the early hour of this morning and we can’t stop thinking about this bet!

The winner of the race that stops a nation came in the form of HALF YOURS which is an incredibly story as he was the ONLY Australian bred horse in the race!

And check this amazing gesture out too:

A perfect ending for the Aussies who love their racing so much… and might just keep the RacingBlogger over there!

Let’s dive in!

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

BIG TARGETS NEXT

Some nice horses have won the Colin Parker Intermediate Chase in the past. Just in the last 10 years, LOSTINTRANSLATION won in 2019 before his dominant Betfair Chase success and WAITING PATIENTLY went on to win the Ascot Chase two starts after his 2017 success.

So, on Sunday, did we see a future Grade 1 winner or two? We didn’t cover the contest in yesterday’s newsletter due to how much we had to talk about, but RESPLENDENT GREY improved past HANDSTANDS - a big surprise to the market.

Firstly, what is the BHA handicapper going to do with RESPLENDANT GREY? We won’t find out until next week, but quite simply, the seven-year-old grey has won the bet365 Gold Cup off 142 and now a Listed race when getting 2lbs from the 157-rated Grade 1 winner HANDSTANDS. The handicapper will surely look at that and pull 152-153 out of the mixing hat, right? Only two horses (NATIVE RIVER in 2016 off 155 and SMAD PLACE in 2015 off 155) have won the race with a rating of 150+, and only a handful have placed in the race with 150+.

They include MAHLER MISSION, FIDDLERONTHEROOF, AYE RIGHT, ELEGANT ESCAPE, BEWARE THE BEAR, WHISPER, and REGAL ENCORE. So, it’s a fairly good list of horses that have achieved this feat, can RESPLENDANT GREY join the list?

It’s obviously not impossible, as he is only seven, and he did beat SPANISH HARLEM at Sandown before his Kerry Nash success but still, he will basically need to be a Grade 1/2 horse to win the Coral Gold Cup, or the field will have to be below average, which can happen. Could he be a Grade 1 horse? Well, he has drastically improved but to be fair to him, probably doesn’t need to be one given his ultimate aim is the Grand National.

Let’s talk about the horse he beat, HANDSTANDS? Throw it back to the summer, and Ben Pauling was quietly confident about this lad being a Grade 1 horse, if not a Gold Cup animal. Losing on Sunday is a big blow to that claim, but he’s very entitled to come on for it, and let’s not forget that he is a heavy ground winner and it was probably solid good to soft ground on Sunday. That’s the thinking Pauling had post-race, as he said: “He just looked like he was half asleep.

“It’s funny but first time out last season at Wincanton (fell when beaten) it was on quick ground so we put it down to that, but he looked the same (at Carlisle). He’s there, but the lights weren’t really on.

“He didn’t make any mistakes but he was careful and deliberate at a few (fences) and he must have lost 10 or 15 lengths on the way round jumping slowly.

“When they’ve come to join him and they’ve got racing, he’s jumped much better and he’s been literally nabbed on the line. He’ll come on a million for it and there’s no disasters. He came back A1 with his ears pricked and looked like he hadn’t had a race.

“I don’t think it will change what we’re going to do – we’ll probably still go Betfair and I think he’ll be a lot sharper for it.”

Some people are writing him off after Sunday, but that is probably harsh. A race-fit HANDSTANDS (8/1) against a fist time out GREY DAWNING in the Betfair Chase will be very interesting.

YOU’RE ALL OKAY, POTTER

So, Sean Bowen was masterful on STRONG LEADER in the Grade 2 West Yorkshire Hurdle on Saturday. Delicate yet aggressive, beautifully timed but fortunate, troubled but at the same time always in no doubt.

To the naked eye it would appear he had no right to win the race from where he was but you always knew they’d get there, but we do bet Skelton thinks they robbed TAKE NO CHANCES on the line.

Bowen seems to be able to get any horse in any race up just in time. How many times did we think this when Sir Anthony McCoy was in the plate? WICHITA LINEMAN was one of a hundred times it happened, and Bowen is slowly building up a similar CV.

Would we be in a rush to back STRONG LEADER next time out in something like the Long Distance Hurdle? We love the horse and we’re happy with our winnings last weekend but we’ll probably leave it there with him now.

Anyway, another big thing from the race was POTTERS CHARM’s fall. He jumped the fourth hurdle well, but he simply stumbled, and it looked like a pretty horrible fall. Luckily, he is none the worse for the effort, and the Twisters are continuing with the three-mile hurdling route. Willy Twiston-Davies said: “He’s absolutely fine, he’s cantered this morning. It was just very unlucky.

“He jumped the hurdle fine, he just seemed to trip and tumble over afterwards. It’s disappointing because Sam said he was very comfortable at the time, though of course they were a long way out, but we’re none the wiser.

“He worked well this morning, so we’ll work back from either Ascot or Newbury the following week.”

Again, like HANDSTANDS, he is not one to give up on, and he may even be a bit fitter on his next run.

TODAY

There are a few nice horses out today on either their first start in a specific type of race or just of the season. Starting at Warwick, MOON OVER AMERICA (Twisters) takes on the ICE IN THE VEINS for the Skelton’s and an interestingly-bred horse for Alan King and Robert Waley-Cohen in LIGHTFINGERED JACK.

The former won an Irish PtP before finishing second in a Ffos Las bumper. The winner at Ffos Las, HARBOUR ISLAND, is from the family of BINOCULAR, and Olly Murphy thinks he has “lots of ability”. NECRONAUT, a dark horse for Paul Nicholls, was also behind in fourth.

His main market rival ICE IN THE VEINS looked a weapon last season:

By new sire ORDER OF ST GEORGE with a dam side littered with jumps winners, he’s bred to be a winner over hurdles but has been beaten twice now at heavy odds on. He’s race-fit with a run in June and September, but he’ll need to learn to settle better.

Then, there is LIGHTFINGERED JACK, whose dam is a half-sister to SOME MAN. His granddam is also a sister to DENMAN and SILVERBURN, so that’s a lovely pedigree. Whether he’ll be better in time, who knows, but he’s certainly got the pedigree.

The race immediately after, the 14.02, includes a few nice types having their chasing debuts (bar DEEP PURPLE). It has just five runners, with strong fave in GO WEST. We can see why the market favours him. He’s a nippy little front runner who might just run the field ragged today over a tight course which favours front runners (a negative for hold up horses like JIPCOT).

One of the more interesting players to follow is SILVER THORN, the rank outsider. He ran well in a bumper behind COUNTRY MILE last year, and he also chased home the likes of THE NEW LION, MOON ROCKET, CALIFET EN VOL, FRENCH SHIP, and BELLIANO. That’s a hot list of horses, but he needs to prove that he isn’t just a horse who runs well without winning. He’s by MARTALINE (great sire) out of a half-sister to the Triumph Hurdle winner KATCHIT. After this prep run, he’d be one to look out for when there is a lot of cut in the ground.

And then, over in Ireland, what do we make of AIR OF ENTITLEMENT, who runs 14.45 at Fairyhouse? She won the Grade 2 Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle, but she flunked at Fairyhouse, and connections have not gone over fences with her. Is she one for the Mares’ Hurdle in time, or is this a race where she can build on whatever she does?
BACCHANALIAN, a winner over MURCIA (Grade 1 winner) at Naas in February, will be no mug, and KAINSBOURG ran very well behind STICKTOTHEPLAN in the Grade 2 Persian War Novices’ Hurdle last month. He’s race-fit, and why did Gordo send him over to Chepstow? Did he think he was good enough to win? If so, he has to have a good chance today.

RISK ON

Tools down yesterday, today we pick them up for a couple of races, Firstly we’re backing two in the 15.07:

15.07 MILAN TINO & PEPE LE MOKO

Greatrex’s fave sets a bloody low standard. We think MILAN TINO will be a different proposition on quicker ground and his best hurdle form wins this. Jane WIlliams’ is too well handicapped to ignore and won the race two years ago albeit on soft. Splitting a stake on these two at 7/4 and 4’s.

The other bet on the shortlist we will post on X @equinties

A WINNER FOR THE STATS SECTION YESTERDAY, SUBSCRIBE TO PREMIUM TO ACCESS:

Become a paying subscriber to get access to all of our pedigree analysis, big race previews inc. bumper previews, standout stats and best bets over the coming NH season!

Already a paying subscriber? Sign In.