Equinties - the big race weights

Gm Equinauts

The team behind this newsletter are a man down this week but we’ll still try give the people want they want and knock it out the park.

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

GRAND NATIONAL WEIGHTS 

The annual Grand National piss-up for people in the racing industry occurred yesterday as it was time to reveal the handicap weights for the most famous steeplechase race in the world. 

Bar the Irish horses who had their marks assessed yesterday, we already knew what rating the British horses had and yesterday was more about seeing how they fit into the overall picture of the contest.

Notable ones include CORACH RAMBLER, last year’s winner, off 11-2, DELTA WORK on 11-0, and NOBLE YEATS on 11-8. At this early stage, we have taken a small look and here are our interesting ones as of February 21st.

The first, and obvious, one is last year’s runner-up, VANILLIER off 10-8. Considering Gavin Cromwell was hoping for a mark “not much over 11-stone”, to get away with just a two-pound hike from last year’s staying-on effort would have had the whole team at home doing cartwheels. 

He’s had three runs this season to blow the cobwebs off, and with a better ride this year, you could see him going well. The next is for Gordon Elliott who will probably have “eight or ten runners” in the contest, though CHEMICAL ENERGY is the one at 40/1 that looks interesting. Although connections have known for a while that he wants better ground, he has yet to race on officially good ground since his 61-length success at Cheltenham in a novice chase in October 2022. 

He ran a belter in last year’s National Hunt Chase when GAILLARD DU MESNIL made the most of the softening ground, so if he gets good ground, he could go well.

Finally, MEETINGOFTHEWATERS could head to several places based on his entries, but we think he could be heading here and off 10-4 at 40/1, he could be interesting. He was bought to be Patrick Mullins’ Kim Muir horse but Danny Mullins gave him a good ride in the Paddy Power Chase and that saw his mark get blown. https://twitter.com/RacingTV/status/1740027320172253374

CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL ENTRIES

Further news relating to big handicaps was released yesterday as the official entries for all the Cheltenham Festival handicaps came out. There’s a lot (but not as many as last year) and if you had one in mind for a handicap, this list below will reveal whether or not some of the high-profile contenders are entered.

At a glance, HEART WOOD is a big omission from the Plate as he was a good winner at the DRF, ZENTA (a Grade 1 winner at Aintree in the 4-Y-O Hurdle last year) has just one handicap entry in the County Hurdle, and GIOVINCO could head to the Ultima if he doesn’t take in the Turners or the Brown Advisory. 

A LOOK AHEAD

This new success as produced some serious yield recently and we want to push on with trying to find the early mid-week value in a big Saturday race. 

Today we look at the Class 1 3m Premier Handicap at Kempton. For a race that was referred to as the Racing Post Trophy in years gone by, this season’s renewal of the £150,000 Coral Trophy Handicap Chase has attracted 14 horses at the five-day stage. The favourite is FLEGMATIK who was second in the contest last season and has won three times at Kempton. 

The only problem with his form coming into this, and tbf it’s a big one, is that he’s never won or even gone close on ground worse than good to soft. If the rain continues to come as predicted, Kempton could be soft to heavy on Saturday - would that ruin his chances? 

Saying that, is Kempton ever that bad?

If you like FLEGMATIK’s form lto then you’ll love FORWARD PLAN’s. He has gone from strength to strength this season and put nearly triple the distance between him and LATITUDE as FLEGMATIK did. Like FLEGMATIK, most of his form is on better ground and it is currently soft with rain expected later this week, so that may dampen his chances.

TWEED SKIRT nipped back over hurdles lto for the first time in nearly two years when third to MARIE’S ROCK and YOU WEAR IT WELL in a Grade 2 at Doncaster which does raise some eyebrows. In fairness to her, she ran a cracker and was only beaten by nine lengths in what was a race she probably was never going to win. She has form over course and distance having won at the track two starts ago and if her last run was a proper ‘prep run’, then she could be dangerous. 

LORD BADDESLEY is next in the market. He has been beaten off 131 in the not-too-distant past on soft ground in an easier contest than this, so it would be hard to make a strong case.

As for BOWTOGREATNESS, he’s on a recovery mission as his form is too hit and miss to be of any use as a betting prospect. We spoke about him when he was entered for the Swinley Handicap Chase last weekend, but he has always held this entry and a flat track over three miles is probably what he wants having run well at Aintree last season. Back to a mark that is just one pound above that Aintree effort, he looks to be ground versatile and the WESTERNER blood in him would see soft ground as no problem. But could we back him? Probably not. 

At a bigger price, UNANSWERED PRAYERS is creeping down to a mark that could see him in the winners’ enclosure soon. His mark of 128 is two pounds above his last winning mark and he was running a good race behind VICTTORINO at Ascot before falling three starts ago. If Chris Gordon has him ready, he could bounce back…but probably not in this race. 

Verdict: Without a doubt the class horse in this field is IL RIDOTO. He normally only runs at Cheltenham but perhaps he might try take this pot before March if Paul thinks he can’t win at the Festival? He is such a model of consistency. More, if the going is true soft/heavy which the weather forecast might produce, he’s one of the few who will handle the ground. This selection is a no bet until he is declared.

RISK ON

We feel like we’re repeating ourselves today but we really should have been celebrating a winner yesterday with Fergal’s bumper horse. He was without a doubt the best horse in that race.

We’re a man short this week so won’t be able to produce the detailed content we usually do, namely Young Blood, but the Donny bumper selection is MONTY BODKIN for Pauling who is KILLING it in bumpers.

Any more bets will be posted on X @equinties