Gm, Equinauts

This weekends results proved just how important it is to factor in the going when weighing up collateral form.

THUNDERING ON became the third filly from the Oaks to disappoint on her next start, prompting plenty on X to write off that Epsom form line, so to in a way have the the bookmakers who’ve have been quick to ease her in the betting, including for October's Arc.

But don't forget she's likely to be running in much softer ground by then – which could see a very different filly.

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

🇮🇪 BIG BEN STRIKES

We don’t typically bet Irish as it’s hard enough to keep up with the British racing and we don’t want to spread ourselves thin, but BENVENUTO CELLINI should have been a good bet yesterday in the Irish Derby. His price was a joke and was propped up by Burrows’ RAAHEEB who had no business being 11/4.

He won easily:

Some called it a remarkable turnaround, but it wasn’t, it simply underlined how important the GROUND can be to a horse.

Ryan Moore rode him with confidence, content to bide his time in rear before making easy headway in the closing furlongs to win comfortably and make his 7/4 starting price look generous.

They crossed the line a couple of lengths clear of CHRISTMAS DAY, with PIERRE BONNARD in third to complete a Ballydoyle clean sweep - Aidan’s 18th Irish Derby win and 9th time he’s had the 1-2-3!

O'Brien suggested a possible Breeders' Cup campaign in America, where quicker ground is likely to suit, rather than an immediate return in the midsummer targets.

There was no shortage of irony yesterday though as BIG BEN crossed the finish line first, HOPE RISING was refusing his start yet was still deemed a runner. Let’s not forget this moment:

Yes, we understand the current rules distinguish between the two, but from a practical, common-sense perspective, we can't see why Big BEN was deemed a non-runner while HOPE RISING wasn't.

To be clear, our view is that both should have been declared runners.

Oh, BHA...

The irony didn't stop there. Post-race, Magnier was vocal in his opposition to France Galop's proposal to allow geldings into the Arc. Funny that. Perhaps if he didn't own Coolmore, we'd take his view a little more seriously.

❗SELL OFF

Joseph O'Brien remains confident that THUNDERING ON is on track for the Juddmonte Irish Oaks, despite her surprise defeat in Saturday's Pretty Polly Stakes at the Curragh.

The impressive Epsom Oaks winner, who was sent off favourite and briefly traded at very short odds in-running, could only finish fourth behind ESTRANGE. However, Joseph revealed the filly emerged from the race in good order, with a minor post-race cough proving insignificant.

The excuses were soon made for the disappointing performance: a drop back in trip on the Curragh's sharper track, combined with taking on older fillies and mares, supposedly didn't play to her strengths.

The one positive Joseph took away from the race is that the run would prove valuable experience ahead of her return to Classic company later this month.

THUNDERING ON has subsequently been sold off to 2/1 for the Irish Oaks, with EARTH SHOT, DIAMOND NECKLACE and PRECISE now among her main market rivals. Her Arc credentials also took a hit, with her odds for Paris drifting significantly after the weekend which is has our attention - she’s almost guaranteed to get soft ground again.

👊 KNOCK OUT BLOW

BIG GYPSY KING caused a 25/1 upset at Cartmel, giving part-owner TYSON FURY another winner with an impressive display in the 2m1f mares' novice hurdle.

Ridden by Leah Noreci, the 4yo travelled strongly throughout before pulling 7 lengths clear of the next best to record her second career victory.

The success continued trainer Jimmy Moffatt's excellent recent record at Cartmel, with the yard once again making the most of its favourite hunting ground - it’s own door step!

WE HIT ONLY 11 BETS OVER THE 5 DAYS OF ROYAL ASCOT AND HAD 3 WINNERS AND 2 PLACED. THE SHOW GOES ON! SUBSCRIBE BELOW TO ACCESS OUR DAILY BETS:

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