Equinties - BGP Capital

Gm Equinauts

78% of retail investors (non-professional, everyday people) lose money trading stocks. The trading platforms literally have to provide this information when marketing their apps – look out for it next time on the adverts you see on the tube or on the side of a bus for companies like eToro or IG.

In sports betting, bookmakers don’t have to provide this information, but they are legally obligated to provide stats on their customers to the government. From the most recent data collection I can find, more than 93% of customers are down. I actually think the % of winning customers is closer to only 2%. That means for every 100 people betting on sports, around 95-98 people lose money, which is absurd given the objective of betting is to win money.

My view is that people lose money for two reasons – lack of knowledge and lack of control of the chimp.

I speak a lot about controlling the emotional and behavioural side of betting, but its not a quick fix – it takes months and years to learn to get your chimp in order, trust me on this, and I will always continue to drip feed advice on chimp management in every newsletter, both during bull and bear runs.

Today I’m going to talk about knowledge.

Genius value-stock investor, Warren Buffett says risk is derived from not knowing what you’re doing. By simply knowing more, you have the power to minimise risk and at the same time, maximise the upside… now that’s a fucking powerful concept.

I imagine some of you reading this might feel a little overwhelmed reading that, wondering ‘how do I start knowing more?’ or simply ‘what do I need to know?’

Well, with Buffett in mind, let’s think of horses in terms of stocks. Its form might be the company financials, trainer and yard staff it’s Board and employee’s, it’s blood the business model or minds of its founders etc.

Feel confident you know as much as possible about the horse you want to invest in? Well, now get to know that detail about every other horse in the race.

Where stocks are just a one-horse race with a binary outcome (up or down), horse racing means your workload is multiplied by the number of horses in the race. Betting horses is A LOT harder than picking stocks, but that is why the risk to reward is so much higher.

The above workload is too much for one person to do. The 2% of people who make a success of trading horses have help… a trusted network, or as I like to call it, a ‘circle’ where those ‘in the circle’ share as much info as possible to collectively work out the most likely outcome of a race. For perspective, this newsletter is often late because we’re waiting on feedback from better connected people.

These circles are hard to get in to. No one is going to simply let you in, especially if you have nothing to offer back. This is what makes me laugh about most people on racing twitter - I see so many people take take take but give fuck all back. If you’re not adding value, if you’re not a part of the money flow keeping racing going, why tf would you be so arrogant to believe you deserve to be in that 2%?

Granted BGP is a bit of an anomaly in the sense we’re now in our third year of being ‘on twitter’ and yeh it started as a bit of a joke but we have amassed one of the biggest followings on racing twitter for giving the everyday person access to our circle but don’t get it confused, only about 10% of things we know goes public as much of it could become compromising.

With this in mind, I’m now allowing people to register their interest in BGP Capital – the investment syndicate. It is not only for those wanting be a part of a unique business model (I will get on to this), but it is for people who want to be in the 2%.

It’s aim? To minimise risk, maximise upside.

How do we do this? Simple, in five ways:

1. Purchasing power. With our combined purchasing power, we will buy young horses to go to war with next season*

2. Create our own ‘circle’. Create an owners community via a secure community platform while adding value to BGP’s existing circles.

3. Buy low, sell high. When the market value of our horses has increased, they will be sold and profits distributed to investors. This pinhooking, we have done this 100’s of times.

4. De-risk. Gamble the horses that don’t have pinhook value and leverage networks to gamble other people’s horses.

5. Liquidate. Anything with four legs is expensive to keep. Therefore all assets will be sold before the end of the season and we go again next season. This is clever trading.

*Let’s talk about the business model. Our aim is to buy yearlings in Sept/October, prep them at BGP HQ and get them ready to race as two-year-olds in May. By that time, we will have a firm understanding of the ability of each horse. We will know which ones have pinhook potential (sell on for profit as a 2yo) or whether they need to be lined up for a gamble and then sold. At the end of the investment cycle, all profits will be shared between owners according to % owned.

If you’re looking for normal ownership – this is not for you.

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again expecting a different result. If you’re not in the 2%, this might be your opportunity to make the change.

More detail about the business model including case studies on previous success and cost structure (tiered to give everyone the chance to be involved) will be available next week. Everyone wanting to register interest, keep an eye out for tweets for more information on how you can do so.

Now, lets dive in.

Headline roundup

Racing League WEEK FOUR Review – The North top and tail

Following a good week at Newcastle, the Racing League put on another proper night of action yesterday which saw Matt Chapman’s London & The South extend their lead at the top of the table.

This was thanks to consistent performances all night from the team in maroon and a 1-2 in the penultimate race of the day, a contest won by the current top jockey, Sean Levey.

A last-to-first effort from the in-form pilot onboard SANITISER:

Away from the top, Mick Quinn’s The North gained 149 points and one place after round four of the Racing League – victories from WOOTTON’SUN in the last and VINTAGE CLARETS, third in the 2021 Coventry Stakes, in the opener made sure the long trip down to the southern track was worth it.

Ding-dong battle from the front for Richard Fahey’s son of ARDAD:

Away from the action, there was one thing that caused a bit of controversy.

The BHA was forced to change the rules of the competition yesterday to allow The East’s EKLIL to run in the final race of the day after a jockey booking cock-up.

His trainer, Rae Guest tried to book Luke Morris for the ride, but he already had the leg-up on his teammate, HAUNTED DREAM – because EKIL was carrying only 8-2 and Hayley Turner, the only other jockey of Team East’s nine-deep squad who can get down to that weight, had already ridden at Salisbury earlier in the day, they were forced to rope in Jimmy Quinn for the ride.

This was Quinn’s first ride in the competition this season as he is not part of any other team – the duo finished a good third as well! A bizarre moment for the Racing League, one they won’t be too proud of.

More:

She’s Free to leave

The four-time Gr1 winning filly ALCOHOL FREE will be sold by her owner, Jeff Smith, at the Tattersalls December Mares Sale.

Recent July Cup success for the NO NAY NEVER mare:

The four-year-old has claimed success in the Cheveley Park, Sussex Stakes, Coronation Stakes, and July Cup, making her a very attractive proposition as a broodmare for years to come – her pedigree of a NO NAY NEVER out of a HARD SPUN mare means she won’t clash with any GALILEO/FRANKEL horses as well to breed with.

More:

Amo and Rossa officially split up

Following a joint statement released between both parties, Amo Racing and Rossa Ryan have officially terminated their contract together, weeks after Ryan’s bombshell announcement live on ITV Racing.

The wording of both statements seems to suggest that this split is being driven by Ryan – “he now wants to move on”, “we hope he will ride for us again in the future”, and “leaving Amo has been a difficult decision” all ‘apparently’ suggest this is the case. I’m calling bullshit. Rossa looked quite upset on ITV Racing when he announced to Oli Bell he’s no longer with Amo, live on TV, I think Amo have paid him off to sign this thing so they don’t look like c*nts.

More:

Cachet to miss the rest of the season

And finally, George Boughey confirmed yesterday that his 1000 Guineas heroine CACHET will be put away for the remainder of the season, but she will return in 2023.

1000 Guineas:

In an interview with the Racing Post, the Newmarket-based trainer said that “she wouldn’t have been ready for the Sun Chariot and it’s not fair to take her straight to the Breeders’ Cup against the colts,” sharing that she will stay in training for a four-year-old season next year.

A potential drop back in trip for the six-furlong winner could be on the cards, as Boughey said: “It would be no surprise to see her get some entries in the sprinting division - we’d certainly be coming back in trip rather than going up."

More:

Risk On

Tough racing today so only two proper bets. There is a chimp acca below.

16.13 LEITZEL

Did it easy enough lto and form boosted yesterday through OSCARS SISTER. I’ve got her down as leverage for any bet.

19.00 WE’LLHAVEWAN

Finndog NAP.

Note: We think Ryan Moore could have a good day. Steering clear of singles as two are novices’ races and they could be green/given easy race but I really wouldn’t put anyone off speccy chimp acca’s on his rides in the 1st, 3rd and 4th race.

A brief on each:

14.00 HELLO DEIRA

Beaten odds on lto and I don’t like his sire but he’s the form to beat in this race where most might not be trying. Haggas’ next in market is okay but won’t be knocked about and others need improvement to beat Moore’s horse.

15.10 RED RIDING HOOD

Her mum is named BALLYDOYLE. They would have had that name lined up for a long time and only an exceptional horse would have been given it. JUSTIFY (her sire) is a proper, proper sire and Ballydoyle are turning more and more to the US sires to diversify.

15.45 AL MARMAR

Ran a stinker at York but horses sometimes hate the track. Badling’s lot like him to go in today as could be ahead of is mark.