Equinties - Betfair chase chat

Gm Equinauts

Chepstow looks a banging card today and we’ve played an exotic bumper bet for our premium subscribers to have a swing on too.

Let’s dive in!

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

NEW SHADE OF GREY

We briefly mentioned the Betfair Chase yesterday with HANDSTANDS, and accidentally this edition of the newsletter has turned into a bit of a Betfair Chase special.

So, if you will, cast your minds back to last year’s race. There was a lot of hype around GREY DAWNING, and honestly, Dan Skelton couldn’t have him beat.

He did lob into the contest, and approaching the last, he looked like the winner however, a slight miscommunication between horse and jockey saw him get in very tight to the fence, and on Haydock heavy, ROYALE PAGAILLE went past easily at his favourite track.

In the immediate aftermath, a lot of people said that this race would leave a mark. They thought that performing like that on your first start of the campaign was almost a season-ruined.

And, do you know what, this was partially true. He went on to pull up in the King George before beating IROKO in a Listed race and finishing second to GAELIC WARRIOR in the Grade 1 Aintree Bowl. He didn’t have a bad campaign afterwards, but he didn’t run in the Gold Cup, and he was probably a little bit below his best all year. Even Skelton agrees, as he said: "What happened on his first start last year scrambled his season. I knew in my heart that it was going to be hard to get him back from that run knowing how hard a race he had.

"Kempton was a disaster because he made an early mistake, hung left-handed and it was basically a no-show, but at least it got him back out there and we were able to clear the decks after that.

"The best ones come back and he came back well at Kelso and Aintree. Patrick Mullins is telling everyone Gaelic Warrior is going to win the Gold Cup, so maybe Aintree was an exceptionally good run. But if we'd have won at Haydock we'd have taken a different route and I know this year it will be different. He won't even be getting an entry at Kempton."

Earlier in this Racing Post piece, he quotes the fact that the heavy ground was probably the thing that got him beaten at Haydock that day, and we have to agree. Maybe he’s not good enough, but any horse would struggle on ground that was like the surface he experienced, and when ROYALE PAGAILLE has his swimming trunks on, there’s no stopping him.

We also know how well Skelton can prepare one for the race first time up, but with last years problems considered - will he put GREY DAWNING’s remaining season at risk so early? S tough one to weigh up. He’s current fave in front of HANDSTANDS and ROYALE PAGAILLE, but there might be an Irish horse to chuck into the mixer…

POWER TOWER

And that aforementioned ‘Irish horse’ is not one from Willie Mullins. Last season, Patrick Mullins went on record and said: “I’d say you’re as likely to see Willie in a baseball cap at the races as seeing one of ours in the Betfair Chase.” He wasn’t wrong, in fairness.

Mullins made no entries in the race yesterday, but do you know who did? Jimmy Mangan with his stable star SPILLANE’S TOWER, and the trainer confirmed yesterday that last year’s John Durkan runner-up is a likely runner at Haydock.

This just makes complete sense. What is something that has held SPILLANE’S TOWER back? Ground conditions. Mangan has made the point time-and-time again about the want to not run this horse in good ground.

He’s a big, old-fashioned chaser who wouldn’t want the going too quick, and soft ground is really for him tog get his toas in to. So, why not go for one of the feature races of the whole season that usually ends up at least soft?

The seven-year-old was entered for the BetVictor Champion Chase last weekend, but obviously, the ground went against him, and now Mangan is going to use a hurdles race this weekend as a prep run for Haydock. He said: "The plan is to run on Sunday at Naas over hurdles. I was discussing it with Frank [Berry, racing manager to owner JP McManus] and he needs a race. It's just about getting him out and the ground is softer now.

"He's in the Betfair Chase at Haydock so we'll see how we get on on Sunday. Haydock is definitely an option. I think the John Durkan is unlikely, especially if Inothewayurthinkin is going there."

If JP is going to run the Gold Cup winner in the John Durkan, that’s that race covered, and one would imagine that FACT TO FILE could also start there. Where else is there to go with him? You surely wouldn’t go straight to the Savills with him, and he clearly has the speed for a Grade 1 over 2m4f (he did win the Ryanair, after all). GALOPIN DES CHAMPS is also out, so that’s Mullins with one less in the race.

That leaves the Betfair Chase open for one of JPs, and it’s a horse who is unexposed over three miles (to a degree) taking on a not-so-vintage crop of British staying chasers on probably soft ground. Check, check, check, and one more check.

Quietly, the Betfair Chase is turning into a bit of a race this year. Please, heavens, bless us with some rain so these boys can run against each other. We beg.

GEORGE’S UPDATE

For a little while, it seemed like Tom George was going to run IL EST FRANCAIS in the Haldon Gold Cup as his first run of the season before the King George. He wasn’t entered for the race, so that plan has seemingly been scrapped, but George has got a plan for him ahead of Kempton on Boxing Day. He said: “He went to Worcester for one of the schooling races the other day and he enjoyed that. It wasn’t much of a race for him, but he basically went round Worcester and jumped very well and showed all the spark we wanted to see.

“He’s really adapted to the hills and everything else here now. I have got a mile-and-a-half (flat) long gallop as well, so he’s doing a bit of everything, but he’s really adapted to the hills and he’s in a good routine.

“He has changed shape. Noel was over a few days ago watching him and looking at him and he was delighted with how he was looking.”

“He’ll have another away day quite soon and then we’re leaning towards running him Ascot on November 22. He seems to be enjoying his work and enjoying life and we’re just finding our way, but that will be the first entry he’ll have anyway and if he’s ready for then we’ll run and if he’s not we won’t.”

We would assume he’s talking about the Grade 2 1965 Chase at Ascot, unless he wants to send him for the 2m1f handicap chase, but that would seem a bit crazy. The Ascot Chase seems like a good race for him. It’s a conditions race rather than a handicap like the Haldon Gold Cup, 2m5f is probably more up his street, and it’s right-handed. He may run into a race-fit PIC D’ORHY that day, but that’s not the end of the world, as Kempton is his Gold Cup.

To be honest, we are still a little bit apprehensive about him with Tom George. He doesn’t have the ammunition anymore so we imagine it would be difficult to get a gauge on such a horse when trying to work out how fit he is? Yeh, we get that IL EST FRANCAIS’ targets are British oriented but moving yards is quite a disruption to horses who absolutely need routine.

RISK ON

The Chepstow card is hard to study knowing the races will cut up quite badly owed to the ground (the chase course is good to firm with the hurdles form good to soft).

The two maiden hurdles race look great though, stacked full of good horses. One to note would be GILLESPIE for Nicholls in the 12.30, he’s a half brother to KILISART and full to THE BIG BREAKAWAY; MY OWN LOVELY LEE also in the 12.30 is a half to Grade 1 winning HOME BY THE LEE; MODERN MAN in the 13.00 a half to Grade 2 winning GWENNIE MAY BOY; and NECRONAUGHT who hails from the family of the mighty DENMAN.

14.00 SWINGIN SAFARI

A good bumper winner for us last season, he out ran his odds in the subsequent two better bumpers. With Skelton’s novices needing a run and Olly Murphy’s one for later, he should be the one to beat today. 5/4.

15.55 FORT ROCK

Has improved since his debut win and this son of WOOTTON BASSETT (RIP) should be very hard to beat tonight. 11/10 BOG single and lever our first NH ante-post to

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