Equinties - National plotters

Gm Equinauts

There are two horses we’ve followed this season, trusting they would be landing a big prize at some point.

THE CHANGING MAN is one. We were prepared to follow him of a cliff this season and he finally converted our belief to readies last time out when bolting up at Ascot on Clarence House day. That was very, very good feeling.

The other horse? SALVER.

In a period when most of the big trainers are wrapping horses in cotton wool after final preps, their fantasies of Cheltenham success still have a pulse, Gary Moore picture might look quite different.

Over coming a yard bug is something all trainers will have to deal with at some point, that’s part and parcel of working with animals, but not all trainers will have effectively reset by removing what they thought was their top horse as the measure for others. That’s basically what Gary Moore is doing today with SALVER disappointing so much yesterday.

He’s simply not the horse they thought they had and now they’ll be wondering what they’ve got at all.

Let’s dive in.

HEADINE ROUND UP

PLAIN SIGHT

Who are some of the horses that we, and many others, have made cases for regarding the Grand National?

INOTHEWAYURTHINKIN is one. He’s rated 160 and he’s the ante-post favourite, though he’s not a guaranteed runner.

TRELAWNE is another. He’s as mad as a hatter. Rated 152 and we’ve been keeping an eye on him all season, so it was nice to see that Kim Bailey is looking at the race after the Ultima. He may not have too much up his sleeve with his rating, and he would need softer ground.

The final horse is IROKO, though at least everyone knows he’s running. Connections have, in fairness, blatantly targeted him towards this race, and they’ve not tried to win anything valuable all season in order to give him a chance at Aintree.

But, is there one hiding in plan sight? Last year’s Irish Grand National winner INTENSE RAFFLES could be one. He’s shown himself to be effective in big-field staying handicap chases, he won his last one off 140, and connections have been saving him for the race by running him in handicap hurdles before the Grand National weights announcement.

This weekend, we got our first look at him back over fences since his big success at Fairyhouse, and he ran a big race to finish second to NICK ROCKETT in the Bobbyjo Chase.

He gave 3lbs away to the 161-rated Willie Mullins-trained chaser, and with his rating of 151, that shows how much of a fine run it was. If they meet again at Aintree, INTENSE RAFFLES would get 12lbs in weight from NICK ROCKETT. That’s a big swing, 15lbs to be exact.

Both horses are on the road to Aintree now, and while Thomas Gibney didn’t give any quotes post-race, Mullins had some nice things to say about the winner.

He said: "I thought it was a nice performance, beating an Irish National winner in the process, and it was a nice trial for Aintree. I'm very pleased with him. It was tough coming back from the Thyestes only four-and-a-bit weeks before this. That was tough and this should leave him spot on for Aintree.

"They were very tough conditions there and he'll probably take a little while to recover from that but he has the time.”
Nice effort from him, and it was a nice effort from the runner-up. Lovely stuff.

SLIPS IN FLAMES

The dreaded red cross emoji on Racing X; it’s what every Cheltenham Festival ante-post backer fears the most.

This season has seen SIR GINO betting slips hit the fire, and yesterday, loyal fans of the green and gold silks were dealt a blow as KAWABOOMGA was ruled out for the season.

KAWABOOMGA is a funny old horse. He was a Willie Mullins French import that didn’t get caught up in the racing X hype train like WILLY DE HOUELLE, so when Tony Mullins tipped it up at 100/1 at the start of the season, one or two eyebrows moved closer to one’s hairline.

Now, Tony Mullins has a reputation for putting up under-the-water Willie Mullins-trained horses on these preview panels, but once KAWABOOMGA won at Fairyhouse in January and then had his KOPECK DES BORDES form franked in February, everything became so much clearer.

WILLIAM MUNNY then went on to frank the form of his maiden hurdle win, and as such, he was squeezed into 9/2 for the Turners Novices’ Hurdle behind THE NEW LION and FINAL DEMAND.

He was becoming a popular fancy for the Festival, but now, he has been ruled out for the season.

What does this do for the Turners? Well, in all honesty, it makes it a bit of a match between THE NEW LION and FINAL DEMAND.

THE YELLOW CLAY would be better suited for the Bartlett in our opinion, POTTERS CHARM dented his form at Trials Day and had his form dented in the Dovecote thanks to MIAMI MAGIC, and SIXMILEBRIDGE needs to back up his Trials Day win.

As a punter, the Turners Novices’ Hurdle is a bit of an easier thing to work out now. You either like THE NEW LION or you like FINAL DEMAND.

Furthermore, whichever horse you like, you’re getting a nice price for fancying them. They aren’t odds-on, they aren’t stupidly short, they are both about fair.
It should be a fun race to watch, and we can’t wait for it.

WEEKEND EYE-CATCHERS

BOURBALI – SATURDAY 16.10 KEMPTON

BOURBALI is getting back towards a time and mark that will see him winning again, and Saturday showed this. He travelled well around the bend on the weekend on his return to Kempton, and he looked to be going the best when push came to shove.

As they rounded the bend, BAD and KEEP RUNNING passed him, but he plugged on well to finish a close second at the line. He’ll get dropped in the handicap for that which could bring him back to his last winning mark of 127, and if so, he will be worth watching on his next start.

KOOL ONE – SUNDAY 14.40 NAAS

This time of year, all eyes, including ours, are on the Cheltenham Festival, and this weekend was the last time horses could get their final qualifying runs in before the handicaps.

Naturally, we’ve had a look to see if any could be getting ready for handicaps, and weirdly, one in Ireland caught the eye.

KOOL ONE, trained by Connor Maxwell, finished second to BACCHANALIAN in a Grade 3 hurdle yesterday on pretty horrid ground. He’s a former Flat horse who won on yielding and placed on soft, so maybe heavy ground wasn’t truly his bag.

Sunday was his third run, so he might just sneak into the bottom of a Boodles, and he has run some eye-catching races behind Willie Mullins-trained horses since January.
He finished third to the French import CHARLUS and then second to BLUE LEMONS, a former 97-rated Flat horse. This latter run was rather eye-catching as he wasn’t given a hard time.

Look, he probably won’t win a Boodles, but he could be well-handicapped when he gets his opening mark, and there will be a handicap for him going forward.

RISK ON

There was a bet at Plumpton but they’ve abandoned for water logging so we’ll down tools today but there is a bumper preview below.

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