Equinties - smooth winner down under

Gm Equinauts

There was a huge move in the Melbourne Cup market last night and now Northern trainer Brian Ellison has the new favourite!

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

HURDLING DAYS AHEAD

Gordon Elliott dropped a few hot lines to the press yesterday about two of his top stars ahead of the 2024/25 jumps season.

The first came in the form of BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD as she is set to stay hurdling this season. Weird one really.

She is clearly classy over hurdles as her Aintree run would suggest, but you always got the feeling last year that connections were just waiting for fences with her.

Back in April, Elliott said: “I’ll have to speak to Michael and Eddie (O’Leary) about whether we’ll go chasing or whether she’ll stay hurdling, that’s yet to be confirmed. But knowing Michael, he loves chasers and it wouldn’t be the biggest shock in the world if she goes chasing next year.”

And in July, Eddie O’Leary, racing manager to Gigginstown, said: "The plan at the moment is very much for Brighterdaysahead to head straight over fences. We've always thought she was made for chasing, so there's no point in hanging around over hurdles when you have a mare like her.

"She's a lovely young mare and we hope her best days are ahead of her, but we'll take it one race at a time and see how she gets on."

She is also a beautiful, big horse, so she looked the obvious one for fences.

So, you must ask why they are keeping her to the smaller obstacles this season. Does she jump like a grand piano or is the prospect of running in a Mares’ Chase at the Festival not worth their time?

Naturally, one would like to think it is the latter. They went to the Grade 2 Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle at the Festival (when beaten) but she is Grade 1 quality, so maybe O’Leary feels like another Grade 2 at Cheltenham this year is a waste of their time.

HOWEVER, the poor jumping argument might also be true.

Go back and watch her win at Aintree. She jumps those hurdles like they aren’t there. She takes them in her stride like a very good and economical hurdler. It could just be a case – where much like STATE MAN – that she just might be a brilliant hurdler, so why not stick to her strengths?

Given the quotes from last year, we have the sneaky suspicion she isn’t that good over fences.

As for the other news, IRISH POINT – second to STATE MAN in two Grade 1s last year – will miss the season.

Huge shame as he could have been a top, top novice chaser this year.

SUCCESSFUL SWANSONG?

John & Thady Gosden have had a muddling season.

93 winners from 503 runners at an 18% strike rate makes this year the Gosden’s mathematically worst year since John added Thady to the licence, which, granted they haven’t heal the joint license long, it’s a terribly low strike rate for such a famous duo.

FRIENDLY SOUL has been one of the shining lights of the campaign having won four of her five starts this year, one of them at Group 1 level, but plans for the Breeders’ Cup are off the table as she is done for the year.

So, who will represent the yard in the Filly & Mare Stakes? That job will be left to EMILY UPJOHN, their two-time Group 1 winner.

Her best performances of the year have both come when behind BLUESTOCKING, the subsequent Arc winner. The first was when just beaten in the Group 1 Pretty Polly at the Curragh and the other came in the Group 1 Prix Vermeille lto.

She might not be at her four-year-old best, but there’s no denying her form from this year (notably second to Arc winner BLULESTOCKING at the Curragh (below)) and she goes there fresh having missed Arc weekend.

John Gosden said: "We wanted Emily Upjohn to go to the Breeders' Cup fresh, so we decided to miss the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe with her, and she's had a nice break since the Vermeille.

"That form turned out to be 'the form' if you like behind the subsequent Arc winner and runner-up and we feel that Del Mar will play to her strengths. She enjoys quick ground, which you usually get at Del Mar, and we are looking forward to taking her out there.

"Emily Upjohn is entered in two races at the moment, which are the Breeders' Cup Turf over a mile and a half and the Filly & Mare, which is over a mile and three. We'll make a call nearer the time which race she goes for, while Running Lion is entered only in the Filly & Mare."

One would have to say that the Filly & Mare is more likely. Would you back her ante-post at 3/1?

CROMWELL CHARGE

Gavin Cromwell and early-season Cheltenham meetings. A duo that has gone hand-in-hand in recent years.

The top Irish trainer has a good number of entries for Prestbury Park across its two-day meeting this weekend, but what runners can we expect?

The pick of the bunch is BOTTLER’SECRET who is the favourite for the Masterson Holdings Hurdle, despite the fact he’ll be racing on good ground, a surface he has yet to face over hurdles yet.

Cromwell thinks “he’ll be fine on it over hurdles”, but he is a half-brother to VIRTUAL ROCK who did his Flat winning on heavy or very soft and he hasn’t been the type to necessarily show an immediate turn of foot. He’s more of a galloper.

Cromwell has also confirmed that VANILLIER will be making his way over, though that’s more than likely to get a few pounds off his back for another Grand National (or Welsh Grand National) attempt and PATH D’OROUX will contest a 2m novice chase.

The one to watch could be AL GASPARO, a race-fit five-year-old who came over to Worcester two starts ago when third to LETTERSTON LILY.

He’ll go on the ground and is entered for the Pertemps Qualifier, a distance he’s never tried before. With the new rules regarding winning a Pertemps Qualifier, could he potentially win this weekend and be put away for the Festival with a mark in the 140s?

Either way, be wary when taking on his runners this weekend!

SMOOTH OPERATOR

At 6.10am this morning, when most of you were either fast asleep or reaching for the kettle, Brian Ellison was bouncing up and down enjoying big success as ONESMOOTHOPERATOR trounced a big field in Geelong, putting him firmly in the picture for the Melbourne Cup.

He needed to win the race to qualify, of that he has done oh so well and has subsequently been smashed in the MC market - 66’s into 12/1!

The race is in two weeks time and the yard are now very confident they will win it. Is he your idea of the winner of the race that stops a nation? Hollie Doyle to get the leg up.

Good luck, Brian and Hollie!

SOUTHWELL BUMPER

Another bumper in the middle of the card, it’s quite nice to not have to wait all day given we like punting them.

DEEP PURPLE for the Skeltons is odds on in this market. He is by up and coming jumps sire SOLIDER OF FORTUNE and was last seen finishing a good second to our previous bumper gamble KAYLAN. On paper that is good form but the race was weirdly run and we wonder if it flattered Skeltons? The Racing Post handicappers don’t rate it highly at all at 82 rpr.

THE LONG WALK is next for JJ. By super jumps sire WALK IN THE PARK, he is a half to monster bumper performer TRIPOLI FLYER. That’s good blood but as a £45k vendor buy back at the sales in ‘23, why did no one want him? Well, TROPOLI FLYER hadn’t run yet and his other half ANYHARMINASKING had only won two modest hurdles, so perhaps the market reacted accordingly. The question is, now TRIPOLI FLYER has done what he’s done, what would THE LONG WALK go for now? Hmm.

We think GEORDIES SECRET is only the price he is because his yard is in good form and their horses typically try in bumpers. Other than that, he doesn’t have much going for him by way of bloodlines!

LITTLE WATSON was sold by the Twiston Davies’ after winning his point. Moderate pedigree and will do well to back his last performance up even with the claimer on board netting off the pen.

CINDERELLO is the only girl in the field. None of her siblings have ever won but she is a direct relation to the fairly useful COGRY. Bumper winners in the family too if you look back far enough. Gets weight from the field.

SNITTERFIELD is a an Olly Murphy cast off after flopping on debut. Looks one to take on.

KALIPSO HIS is probably one for low grade handicaps later down the line but could end up better than a couple of these in the field. Sire is a complete unknown.

Verdict: Skelton’s ran well lto but we do wonder if the way his race was run flattered him slightly. That said, the bumper wasn’t that bad, with most of the field quite well related to a certain level. At 5/6, the market think he just wins. But, big but, we can’t ignore the pedigree of JJ’s THE LONG WALK. The yard own mixed form right now, but they have had a winner and a second from the four recent bumpers they’ve had runners in. This lad, although a sales buy back (we think we have a reason for that), is by far the best bred in the race and should not be taken on! With the market seemingly a little bearish of his chances at 9/2 in only a 7 runner race, we still think he should be an ew to nothing against the fave with all books offering 2 places.

NEWSLETTER BUMPER RESULTS

03/10/24 KAYLAN 2/1 (11/8 SP) - 1st

08/10/24 LAURA LOU 11/1 & PLAYAWAY GIRL 14/1 - 6th & 9th

09/10/24 JOTO 2/1 6th

09/10/24 ID GO MANIAC 5/2 - 4th

12/10/24 MONEYGARROW 5/1 (13/8 SP) - 1st

16/10/24 KINGSLEY 7/1 - 8th

18/10/24 STRONG RUN 5/1 - 2nd

22/10/24 SECRET SNIPER 5/1 - 3rd

RISK ON

Two jumps meetings on today - one in the slop and one on quick ground, it’s funny how the UK can produce such extreme and contrasting goings on one day. We like three horses and eye’s on the market for another:

13.55 LA HIGUERA

With Pauling’s taking so much of the market, we think this lad is a good ew in what might just turn out to be a two horse race between him and the fave. Pauling seems to have them lined up at Fontwell today with four faves but we are, cautiously, going to take him on, despite the yard being so good to us last season. LA HIGUERA was a good 90k purchase after running okay in Points, of which the form has been boosted to varying degrees - lots of winners have come from the form lines. The step up today will be very much in his favour. A win today will boost his Exeter form line and give a speculative nod to the bloodline of JJ’s Southwell bumper winner - will leave you to work it out but it’s fairly obvious. Oddly this lad is a huge 8.0 on the exchange (versus 9/2 on the books) making available a self-made 7/1 ew for machine users.

15.53 BELLAS BRIDGE

A strong and short fave at 13/8 but for a reason, her point and bumper form is stand out. She’s really only run on soft ground but given her pedigree, we do think she could be even better on a quicker going. With the yard in form, we think she is a medium stakes win bet today.

17.00 CLEAR THE RUNWAY

A small speccy play on one where we think the handbrake will be off soon. Either that or he’s totally lost his way. Adam Wedge has been bringing this lad down the handicap to the point now where he is about 25lbs below his last winning mark. With the claimer onboard taking off 7lbs, his weight is total joke. He ran well lto and jumped perfectly, fading the last few furlongs - by design? We’re not sure but if retaining any ability close to what he was doing a few years ago, we do think it won’t be long until this lad lands one. At 18/1, it’s a small play and if there is a sizeable market move ahead of the off, we will top up to a full bet. 18/1 lunch money play.

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