Equinties - banned

Gm Equinauts

As we expected, Colin Keane will miss all of Glorious Goodwood, which means Field Of Gold will be without his new ‘regular rider’ if he runs in the Sussex Stakes.

His ban will begin on July 22nd and last until August 4th. With the likes of KALPANA (King George), COSMIC YEAR/JONQUIL/QIRAT (Lennox Stakes), JONQUIL/LEAD ARTIST (Sussex), and QIRAT/ARRAY (Golden Mile) all entered across Ascot at Goodwood, this is a pretty big blow to Juddmonte.

But who will replace him!?

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUND UP

BANNED

For punters who literally have nothing else to do but wear their speculation hats on, Keane’s ban gives us a great chance to guess at who may ride FIELD OF GOLD if he runs in the Group 1 Sussex Stakes.

ROSALLION (Richard Hannon), HENRI MATISSE (Aidan O’Brien), DOCKLANDS (Harry Eustace), and FACTEUR CHEVAL (Jerome Reynier) would all be on our ‘definite’ list of Sussex Stakes runners.

That would likely rule out Sean Levey, Ryan Moore, Richard Kingscote/Mark Zahra, and a French jockey.
The likes of THE LION IN WINTER (Minstrel Stakes/City Of York Stakes), JONQUIL (Lennox Stakes), NOTABLE SPEECH (this weekend’s July Cup before maybe the City Of York Stakes), RULING COURT (Juddmonte International), and FALLEN ANGEL (Nassau Stakes) could all head elsewhere, though it’s hard to know at this stage.

We will take a stab and suggest that both RULING COURT and NOTABLE SPEECH, the two Godolphin entries, might avoid the Sussex Stakes. So, if this is the case, William Buick could be free for the ride, even if the Gosdens were slightly displeased at his OMBUDSMAN ride.

Kieran Shoemark could be on the radar, but one would imagine that Juddmonte don’t want him to ride another horse for them ever again.

There is, of course, Oisin Murphy. Despite his ‘troubles’ away from the saddle, Murphy does ride for the Gosdens, and the BHA have allowed him to continue riding, though if one of Gosden’s regular riders is the way Juddmonte want to play it, Rab Havlin could also be an option.

Barry Mahon has confirmed that “no decision” has been made yet, so more will be revealed in due course.

GROUP 1 POTENTIAL

James Tate is a great little trainer. He doesn’t have a massive string of horses, and he doesn’t have a boatload of runners every year, but he consistently gets good results.

His 62 winners in 2013 (21% strike rate) and 72 winners in 2019 (24% strike rate) were tremendous efforts, and he’s landed 23 winners from 108 runners so far this season at a 21% strike rate. Good effort.

Furthermore, some of his winners do it with such style. CLOUD COVER oozed class in the Listed Queen Charlotte Fillies’ Stakes at Chelmsford last week, and ROYAL DRESS did something similar in the Listed Pipalong Stakes at Pontefract yesterday.

We’re going to focus a bit more on ROYAL DRESS, because earlier this season, Tate thought she could be a Group 1 filly.

He said: “If she could take off from where she left off last year, which she certainly looks like she can based on her homework, you know, we are dreaming of a Group 1 or Group 2 glory with her this year. She's probably right up there as one of our main hopes for the year.”

That was said before she ran in the Group 2 Middleton Fillies’ Stakes at York in the middle of May, and connections probably thought she could be forgiven for the run because of race fitness.

That and the fact that SEE THE FIRE bolted up by 12 winding lengths!

However, when she went to the Group 3 Princess Elizabeth Stakes on Epsom Derby Day, they were probably hoping for a bigger run than her fourth-placed effort, eight-and-a-quarter lengths behind the runaway winner SPIRITUAL.

That effort probably contributed heavily to yesterday’s SP, as for a Group 3 winner last year, she went off a very reasonable 85/40 in a winnable Listed contest.
Anyway, she certainly showed on track yesterday what her connections have clearly been seeing at home, and bigger assignments await her.

Tate said: “Do we try to win a Group 2 or 3, or do we go for an each-way run in one of the big races? If she were to finish in the top three, it would be worth it for the value – she’s a well-bred future broodmare.”
She has an entry for the Group 3 Meadow Court Stakes at the Curragh on July 20th, alongside her entry for the Group 1 Nassau Stakes on July 31st at Glorious Goodwood.

As much as an attempt at gathering some Group 1 black-type is tempting, arguably the smart thing to do is head to the Curragh in 11 days’ time, if she is all well.
She is in good form, she bolted up in the same race last year, and she would get in penalty-free.

It looks like Tate has a nice decision to make.

THE FINALE

We thought she was done. We thought that now she was in foal to the mighty FRANKEL, Royal Ascot was going to be her swansong, and we hoped that she was going out in a blaze of glory.

She ultimately didn’t, but we still thought that Royal Ascot was going to be the final time that we saw BELIEVING hit the racetrack. Oh, how wrong we were.

It’s now confirmed that Saturday’s Group 1 July Cup will be BELIEVING’s final run of her career before she goes off to be a broodmare, and she is set to reunite with a former partner on the July Course as Billy Loughnane is taking over from Ryan Moore.

On this weekend, George Boughey said: “Billy will ride Believing in the July Cup and he deserves a shot at it as he’s our main rider. He rode her twice last year, in the King George Stakes at Goodwood and then the Prix de l’Abbaye, and did well both times.

“As much as I was banging on about a stiff five furlongs being her bag prior to Ascot, I’m now sure that a stiff six will suit her better. She couldn’t be in better shape for what will be the final run of her career.

“If she hadn’t run at Royal Ascot, she'd be nearly favourite for the July Cup. If you can forgive one below-par run, she goes there with a live chance.”
We love this. For a very, very long time, we’ve thought that six furlongs would be for her. Just look at last season’s Flying Five, Nunthorpe, and King George Qatar Stakes. She stayed on from impossible positions on all three occasions, but connections persisted with five furlongs.

She even went on to win the Al Quoz Sprint at Meydan in April over six furlongs!
This is slightly too little too late, as a few more tries at six furlongs in Group 1 company would have been nice, but hopefully, she is back to her best on Saturday with suitable conditions.

STATS OF THE DAY

There are NO standout stats today.

RISK ON

Boughey’s ZIGHY in the 15.05 has been smashed. She was a lovely yearling and is expected to get the better of the useful Crisford horse on debut. You will need to add to another as the price has gone now.

16.20 COSMIC SOUL

This is effectively a (bad) weighted fast ground bumper and we think Neville’s lad can finally get his head in front now. He’s in the form of his life despite being a maiden (we don’t think we’ve ever backed a horse 0 for 17 before) but this looks the right race where there is a big pedigree edge. Small stakes owed to him continually finding one too good.

19.40 CHARMING PRINCESS

This is either a stupid bet or a genius one. Beckett’s girls always come on for a run and this one has a beautiful pedigree, from the family of HERNANDO. Shaggas’ odds on to beat. 7/2 is an ew for the pro’s or a small win bet for those who bet small stakes and don’t care. Or for those who’ll be butt hurt with a win bet losing to the 11/4 on Shaggas horse, maybe the bet without markets are for you. CHARMING PRINCESS without Shaggas’ is 11/10.

At 7/2, we’re also going to us CHARMING PRINCESS to play a speccy ew double with 16.10 HINITSA BAY. We don’t normally get involved in racing at such a lowly level but it’s clear Ian Williams has been trying to land one with HINITSA BAY. We think if he’s ever going to win, it could be today as the drying ground might still have enough cut in it by race time which is what this horse has needed. Small 26/1 ew double.