Equinties - Ballydoyle on top

Gm Equinauts

Our new hire Norm hit 6 in a row yesterday! We’ve never seen anything like it… ever and we’re just grateful to be able to work alongside such a pro like him.

Keep it up big Dunc.

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

JUDDMONTE OVER KING GEORGE

Was CITY OF TROY really ever going to run in the King George? The answer is probably not.

As much as it was reported that he could join stablemate AUGUSTE RODIN in the Ascot showdown, Ballydoyle never run their proper good horses against each other. This probably explains why Aidan O’Brien is “swaying towards York” with the Derby-Eclipse hero as the Juddmonte International is a likely next target.

This not only makes the Juddmonte International instantly interesting, but one would have to analyse the runners Ballydoyle could have in the King George.

Of course, AUGUSTE RODIN is the headline name, but one would have to admit that he is an enigma and you don’t which AUGUSTE RODIN is going to turn up.

So, could the potentially interesting one be CONTINUOUS?

He was always going to need that run in the Group 2 Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot, though he still finished a reasonable fifth and connections admitted he would have bigger targets throughout the season.

Could this be the target they were thinking about?

Maybe it wasn’t the most immediate one as trips around the world at the end of the year will probably be his priority, but he’s a smart horse and will be much fitter for a run under his belt.

Back to the CITY OF TROY news, he’s now 7/4 for the Juddmonte International while AUGUSTE RODIN is a general 7/4 for the King George.

More: https://www.racingpost.com/news/ireland/were-swaying-towards-york-at-the-moment-derby-hero-city-of-troy-set-to-have-next-start-in-juddmonte-international-a3SrJ8g6GM9g/

LOW-WEIGHTED SPRINTER

The Super Sprint at Newbury is always a fascinating contest. Unexposed two-year-old sprinters weighted based on their price tag – what’s not to like!?

For reference, the weights for the Super Sprint are easy to calculate. Colts and geldings get 9st 5lb as a starting point, but they get a pound taken off for every £5,000 paid below £65,000. For fillies, it’s similar, but they start on 9st and work down. However, an extra £3,000 must be added to the horses’ auction price before you calculate.

As for penalties, horses who have won a Class 2 race get 3lbs while a Listed winner gets 5lbs and a Pattern winner gets 8lbs.

So who are the horses to keep an eye on?

IT AIN’T TWO is a horse who should be noted. Trained by Hugo Palmer, she gets just 8-7 on her back as she cost just 10,000gns! She is related to BALON D’OR, so Palmer knows the family well.

So, because IT AIN’T TWO cost just 10,000gns (which is nearer to 13,000gns once the £3,000 is added to her auction price), she gets 10lbs off, but she also shoulders a 3lb penalty for her Class 2 success at Newmarket on debut.

Understand? Good.

Oisin Murphy is booked to do the steering and the lowest weight he has done over the last 12 months is 8-6, so 8-7 is on the light side for him!

His second behind AESTERIUS at Sandown:

Not a tip, more an explanation of the weights distribution. We’ll find the winner on the day.

More: https://www.racingpost.com/news/britain/hugo-palmer-delighted-as-oisin-murphy-commits-to-riding-well-fancied-and-low-weighted-super-sprint-hope-aS5912S2CF8h/

A LOOK AHEAD

We really enjoy producing this section of the newsletter as we are able to scratch that ante-post itch with as much information on our side as possible.

This isn’t like Cheltenham ante-post punting where you are betting on what race Willie Mullins will send his third-best novice hurdler. This is betting with confirmed entries, jockey bookings, and a good idea of what the ground will be like.

Speaking of Cheltenham, this weekend’s biggest handicap contest is (would you believe it) a jumps race as the 15.15 Summer Plate at Market Rasen takes centre stage.

£56,950 is on offer to the winner and Ben Pauling fields the favourite with MOLE COURT. He’s 5/1 and he’s in good health as he’s had three runs since April, one of which yielded a victory over 2m4f at Huntingdon.

He’s a sound jumper, but he’s potentially a bit too safe. He threw his head up and took a look at the last two at Huntingdon, so he might not be one to rely on in a tight finish.

PLANNED PARADISE looks like a typical Christian Williams horse. He was rated 122 when he was racing over two-and-a-half miles in 2022, but he dropped to a rating of 107 ahead of his last run. He bolted up that day at Perth and now has an eight-pound penalty to shoulder. His first run for Williams occurred in October, so knowing he is partial to a bit of good ground, this could well have been a long-term target?

AL ZARAQAAN also likes a bit of decent ground as he’s even dabbled in the Flat scene a little bit. He probably benefitted from a pace collapse the last day and this mark of 138 is a career-high rating. He would need a career-best effort over a new trip.

SOUL ICON is in the same category as his mark of 137 is a career-high. He’s kept himself in high company though, notably when third in the Grade 2 Wayward Lad Novices’ Chase alongside MASTER CHEWY and NICKLE BACK. He’s also won on good ground before and this trip suits him although we do think he’s better in the mud. That said, his mark of 137 is workable and he could have a nice racing weight due to HANG IN THERE who has a rating of 159.

It’s a tough situation for Emma Lavelle’s 10-year-old as he is a good horse that can only run on good ground. That’s why connections are running here as they need to get runs into him and can’t bank on some of the early-season Graded races turning up on decent ground.

One horse at a price to note is SOMESPRING SPECIAL. She was with Anthony Honeyball and she won nicely on decent ground at Cheltenham in April. She has now moved to Chris Gordon which is an interesting one. She’ll like the conditions of the race and her mark of 117 gives her scope to win.

Verdict: Summer specialist Bowen loves this race and he has two runners but one is 11yo and the other doesn’t look like he can win this. Emma’s is the best horse in the race by a long way but we’re not sure about the huge weight so is the tentative nod!

RISK ON

Another winner for the newsletter yesterday and another winner for our new hire Norm.

Todays bets:

14.10 BILLAMS LEGACY & 15.00 TWILIGHT BALLET

Shorties but a goodies, hopefully! First one is pedigree pick, should be heavy odds on in our opinion. Latter is strongly fancied today. Finished behind a bet of ours last time so we know the form. 6/4 a great bet. Oisin fancies this and the 17.00 but this, for us, looks stronger. Strong bet on BILLAMS LEGACY, standard bet on Oisin and small double.

20.00 GODSEND

Should be a gift from God today - he’ll about 20lbs well in. Short enough so add to another for leverage. Perhaps lever LAKERS at Yarmouth?

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