Gm, Equinauts

Whether you take punting seriously to supplement your lifestyle or just treat it as a bit of fun to make sport even more exciting, in some parts, the highs and lows are experienced the same. Okay, sticking a grand on something (if you can) versus a tenner have vastly different consequences (although it’s all relative) but any notional stake can serve up the same juicy does of dopamine when the horses start galloping. This weekend was a real emotional rollercoaster as dopamine and cortisol were booted around every hidden crevice of the body.

Saturday kicked off with us finding the Brocklesby winner again (and landing the tricast to boot),

and then all that happened next were blanks and a real good ante-post kicking.

We didn’t expect ALBERT EINSTEIN to win Saturday (hence we were never tempted to play a single on the drift) but the performance was so poor that the books are seemingly thinking he now won’t even line up at HQ in May.

Our exposure on him was intentionally minimal (as is our rule for all ante-post bets) as we used other horses to increase the odds. That’s the power of leverage.

But it still is a kick to the gut to see Aidan openly admit they might revert to sprinting.

Now, they could still go. Saturday was a necessary blow out. He’d have lost a weak maiden at Bath running like that. It’s not like we’re counting on Aidan to do something he’s never done before, it’d be hard to count how many times he’s turned a horse inside out after on run and he genuinely could do that here.

The market will tell us what they’re going to do and admittedly it looks f*cking bearish right now. Any squeeze in the coming weeks will be telling and we’re going to continue to cost average his price but at much reduced stakes. 5% now rather 10£. 5p to the £1. So if your standard stake is say £50, you’re betting £5.

A very clever way of betting.

If he does go to the Guineas, he won’t be the 16’s or 25’s he is in some places, he’ll go off 7’s at the most.

Is there ANY sign at all he could go to the Guineas - yes, the fact Aidan has since mentioned on numerous occasions how well behaved he was. When he says that he means well behaved enough to keep a lid on it and get the mile.

Watch the market. Any squeeze will be significant.

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

👀BALLYDOYLE SHOWCASE

ALBERT EINSTEIN might have been 2/1 had he joined in Ballydoyle’s public work out yesterday but alas, the special one got stuffed on Saturday and the market doesn’t like it. He wasn’t the only market mover though as the press were given a chance to dissect all the other Ballydoyle guns with Classics target.

All the info you need about the morning is here:

And are the key-takeaways…

Ryan Moore sat GSTAAD and the Coventry Stakes and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf winner has edged to the head of the 2000 Guineas pecking order, in market terms only for now because let’s not forget he’s already been spanked by two he’ll reoppose on the day. He moved well on soft ground and shaped like a colt progressing nicely from 2 to 3yo. PUERTO RICO, TWAIN and HAWK MOUNTAIN also featured, underlining the depth in the yard’s older sprinting division.

The Derby squad looks as strong as ever. PIERRE BONNARD travelled smoothly, BENVENUTO CELLINI finished his work with purpose, and PORT OF SPAIN is noted as a big improver. CONSTITUTION RIVER may head to France, adding another layer to Ballydoyle’s Classic spread.

Among the fillies, PRECISE remains the key 1000 Guineas hope despite a minor setback (temperature), while DIAMOND NECKLACE continues to impress and was squeezed in the Guineas market as back up should PRECISE not make it (Aidan thinks she will).

Overall, it’s the usual story—Ballydoyle are loaded with talent.

✨PERFORMANCES OF THE WEEKEND

It’s not often we highlight international horses, let alone outside of England but a French monster debuted this weekend it was the performance of the weekend:

ERDENALI is by ex-Coolmore stallion CARAVAGGIO who now stands in Japan and out of a SEA THE STARS Aga Khan mare. The pedigree isn’t ‘electric’ but this geldings debut certainly was and topped off a big weekend for the Aga Khan, Grafford and Barzalona team who also saw their CALANDAGAN prove world class in Meydan:

Back on British soil, Hannon’s A BEAR AFFAIR shone in the Donny opener, the Brocklesby but there are a couple in behind who would have run better had they not got knocked in running so the stand out winner of the Lincoln meeting has to go to LANGSTONE:

An expensive son of MAYSON, he is an absolute unit and look exceptionally green yesterday but when the penny dropped in the final furlong he won with ease and, to the eye, looked very good. You’d think there is a lot to come from this big lad and looks one to keep on side throughout the season.

🚪CHELTENHAM CLOSED

Cheltenham Racecourse has announced a temporary closure to allow essential drainage works to be completed. The project is aimed at replacing old and inefficient drains, ensuring the track maintains it’s safety standards for racing (think what happened on trials day!).

Officials confirmed that the closure will affect parts of the course for the remainder of the season and therefore have no choice but to give their meetings to other tracks like Warwick.

Cheltenham members to receive a small re-imbursement.

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