Equinties - Cheltenham 2026

Gm Equinauts

We didn’t envisage CONSTITUTION HILL falling, but we did think MAJBOROUGH’s jumping would let him down. We had our suspicion that BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD was a myth and were rewarded with the ‘been there, done that’ GOLDEN ACE winning. BALLYBURN’s figures were well clear but he didn’t show up on the day where as CALDWELL POTTER had his figures in an explored locker and duly bolted up.

The above is a small sample illustration of how and why the outcomes of races will read in the history books.

We’ve seen a lot of chat, both pre and post Cheltenham, about how best to bet the Festival; stats, trends and now we’re even seeing chat about ‘models’.

The only models we’re taking to Cheltenham are the tall blondes on our arm.

On a level playing field, betting the best horses pays, it’s really that simple. It’s how to deduce the field down to the best horse which is the test and is the reason it’s so highly rewarding when you do. Form (including yard form), pedigree, size and scope and jumping ability are the facets to consider, and that’s just for the horse. Owners’ dreams and trainers long terms plans are more boxes to be checked and ticked off. And let’s not forget about Lady Luck. You need her on your side too.

A model can analyse stats, fine, in fact, if it can make you work faster, then great, but it won’t have the answers for you.

It can’t tell you the trainers thoughts. It can’t tell you if Nicky’s yard will come down with a bug. It can’t tell you if BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD looked lame before she even raced. It can’t tell you why the two Cheltenham courses are apples and oranges.

Racing horses is too complicated for a computer.

In a sport where you cannot rely on a computer, we must keep watching horses run and be attentive to the nuance of turning animals into gold medal winning athletes in their optimum event.

In todays newsletter we’ve had a small dive into the key takeaways from 2025 in the hope we can apply some rules to betting 2026.

Let’s dive in.

2025 FESTIVAL AWARDS

It’s that time of year, the Equinties Cheltenham Awards! This is our way of reviewing the biggest week of the year without drowning on too much and still covering everything we feel is necessary. Strap in.  

PERFORMANCES OF THE WEEK

DINOBLUE - MARES’ CHASE

A few JP McManus-owned horses will be mentioned here, but we’ll start with our Friday NAP DINOBLUE.

She still fairly bolted up in the Mares’ Chase and it was largely owed to the quicker going. She sat in the box seat, jumped well on the whole, and once Mark Walsh pressed the button around the bend, she won as easily as she thought she might. We’d say Walsh will struggle to ride and easier winner than that in such a big race, and DINOBLUE has gone a fair way to improve her copy book. Ahead of last week, she still had her doubters of staying 2m4f and being able to string two big performances together. She doesn’t have that worry anymore; she’ll be tough to beat in similar races on that ground.

FACT TO FILE - RYANAIR CHASE

Obviously, the other McManus-owned horse to mention is FACT TO FILE. He was awesome in the Ryanair, and he made good horses look less than. There is a caveat to mention. IL EST FRANCAIS probably didn’t enjoy Cheltenham, PROTEKTORAT didn’t look like his usual self (he belted a few), and JUNGLE BOOGIE cut out quickly. 

Still, he looked like a horse that should have been in the Gold Cup and probably would have been in the Gold Cup if he had a different trainer/owner. He’s a Gold Cup horse for next year, but there’s no guarantee he’ll enjoy those conditions. He’s been beaten by GALOPIN DES CHAMPS twice this season, and he was outstayed at the DRF. INOTHEWAYURTHINKIN is a stronger stayer, and Mark Walsh knows FACT TO FILE has gears.  

If we thought this year’s Gold Cup scene was interesting at the start of the season, next year’s could well be even more fascinating.

MRYETOWN - ULTIMA 

It’s always difficult to back up monster performances if you are a handicapper, but MYRETOWN looked like a properly well-handicapped horse in the Ultima. He won off 127 and ran to an RPR of 145. That says enough, and he will get lashed in the handicap tomorrow. But still, he’s an exuberant jumper, and that will be on his side going forward as he can gallop horses into submission. He beat some nice horses, and he could well be a graded chaser in time.

FLOPS OF THE WEEK 

BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD - CHAMPION HURDLE 

After all the hyper and the Irish claiming she was a certainty, this was a fairly obvious one. BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD was never in a good place during the Champion Hurdle with Jack Kennedy working the whole way round. The plan was always to go hard, but did they go too hard? They clocked some speed coming down the hill, 36mph to be exact, but when BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD was left in front she did slow up. Perhaps n on-song BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD would have been closer, but she was too far below expectations and we imagine fences will be her next campaign.

GALOPIN DES CHAMPS - GOLD CUP

This may seem harsh on the two-time Gold Cup winner, but we think even Willie Mullins and Paul Townend would agree. Townend was never happy, and Mullins knew he was up against it from the first few fences.  

Why? Was it the ground? He’s pretty ground versatile, but the time of the Gold Cup was rapid this year and his worst performances of the season usually come at Punchestown on nice ground. For a while, Mullins has said how hard it is to get these staying chasers back time and time again, a testament to how good a trainer he is. He will hopefully be back, but let’s really hope that this isn’t the start of a GALOPIN DES CHAMPS decline. If it’s not, the 10/1 for next year’s Gold Cup could look quite big!

UNDERRATED PERFORMANCE - JANGO BAIE - ARKLE 

Although this wasn’t the best performance, JANGO BAIE’s effort in the Arkle should be given credit - it was the finish of the Festival! MAJBOROUGH nearly falling will leave a sour taste in the mouths of many, but the race was hot. Bar TOUCH ME NOT, all horses looked like winners at one stage during the race, but it was JANGO BAIE who crossed the line first. He’ll be some chaser up in trip next year. He might not be a Gold Cup horse, but the Ryanair could look perfect for him. Eyes on. Oh, and Nico de Boinville’s ride on him was very good. Set out to make the pace, changed tactics when the race didn’t go to plan, kept him in the race, and then won. Bravo, Nico.

RIDES OF THE WEEK - RACHAEL BLACKMORE 

Just when we thought Rachael Blackmore was going a bit quiet, she produced a day like Thursday. AIR OF ENTITLEMENT and BOB OLINGER were her two winners on the day, and both were very good ‘from the rear’ rides. The former saw her show her strength. She was off the bridle early, the horse had a field to get through, and yet she still beat SIXANDAHALF who was going away at the end. The latter saw her get BOB OLINGER, a weak stayer, to stay three miles in order to win the Stayers’ Hurdle. She sat tight, allowed him to save energy, let the pace setters eat away at their chances, and pounced late-on to win. Beautiful. She may be thinking about retiring soon, but she reminded us all this week that she massively deserves her seat at the big table. 

 PLOT OF THE WEEKS

CALDWELL POTTER - JACK RICHARDS

Paul Nicholls, you big beautiful b*satard. People had started to write you off, and you decided to pull everyone’s pants down by getting CALDWELL POTTER to win the Jack Richards off 146.

In hindsight, and that is a wonderful thing, his plan to run him at Windsor was perfect. He’s not a two-miler, but it was a winnable race, so he either won a Grade 2 or he would lose and still be in a good place to land a handicap. The latter occurred, and having given the excuse that he needs soft ground, he pitched up to Cheltenham on nice ground and bolted up. Good stuff, Paul, we hope you can do more of these going forward. 

JOHNNYWHO - KIM MUIR

It didn’t come off, but JOHNNYWHO came very close to turning his poor season into a great one, also known as the classic green and gold campaign. He was well-beaten at Ascot and finished last of three at Windsor which allowed him to pitch up to the Kim Muir off 140. We were concerned that he doesn’t see out his seasons very well, but he put that away to finish second, and he probably should have won in fairness. If he goes to Aintree or goes to a nice race at the start of next season, he could still be well-handicapped in the mid-140s.

EYE-CATCHERS

LIAM SWAGGER

LIAM SWAGGER was plotted towards the Fred Winter, but he had no chance of beating PUTURHANDSTOGETHER. The JP McManus-owned juvenile bolted up, but James Owen’s horse ran a huge race to pick up off the pace and finish third. He was a rather nice Flat horse and he has ability - he will be winning races over the next year. One for the Greatwood maybe?

MASACCIO 

The road to the Coral Gold Cup for MASACCIO really is on.  

His form with THE JUKEBOX MAN looks good and he ran a fine race in the Plate on Thursday. However, he was pretty much going flat out all the way and that was probably shown in his jumping as well. Three miles will be his bag, especially around a track like Newbury, and that will take an emphasis off his jumping as well. Alan King will be thinking about the Hennessy for sure, and we’d say he’s started plotting back from it already.  

EAST INDIA EXPRESS

We think Freddie Gordon would probably want the ride back on EAST INDIA EXPRESS in the Martin Pipe as he probably just did a bit too much too early. He raced really prominently, and fair enough, the horse is a great jumper who has lots of speed, so why not try do that? But, the field went pretty hard early and that ultimately cost him in the final furlong. The front six came from the rear or midfield and massively benefitted from the strong pace, especially on the New Course.

EAST INDIA EXPRESS was smashed in the market before the off and he really did run well, he was just lacking for energy at the end. Maybe Aintree could be for him, but he can certainly improve from 129 wherever he goes.

FUTURE BETTING MUSINGS

THE SUPREME

It’s evident recent Gr1 form is essential when finding the winner and the DRF is a very good stepping stone and a good indicator on who is the best young hurdler over 2m. 25 of the last 29 winners won last time out.

You need a horse who is a strong traveller as not many come from behind in this race, this trumps stats. Stats guys might look at the age thing (5 and 6yo have won the past 16 out of 17 renewals of the race (APPECIATE IT won at 7yo and WILLIAM MUNNY, 7, was second this year) but that’s most all go on to fences and aim for the Arkle.

ARKLE

Experience, experience and more experience. Time and form over the bigger obstacles is very important, similar to the Champion Chase, one bad mistake and you’re out and as such, 5yos are 0-17 since 2007. MAJBOROUGH lost his race owed to nothing but a jumping error.

ULTIMA

Respect British trained horses, especially Lucinda Russell!

MARES AND JUVENILE (in particular Triumph)

Willie is double handed, start your assessment with his runners and don’t be put off if Townend isn’t riding one - he can only ride one after all! With the Triumph best to keep on side flat bred horses due to the nature of the course.

ALBERT BARTLETT

As it is run on the New course at Cheltenham which only has 2 hurdles in the last 7 furlongs it is best to look at quick horses who stay, hurdling is secondary as a bad hurdler can make up ground in between hurdles and up the hill. The bumper from the previous year can be a good barometer, it often separates the wheat from the chaff. JASMIN DE VAUX added his name to the list of bumper winners who went on to win at the Festival the next year. Placed horses can be worthwhile following as well like ROMEO COOLIO and THE YELLOW CLAY from last year, APPRECIATE IT a few years back also ticks that box.

MARES NOVICE

If you can’t look at them in the paddock, then watch their races and check what they’ve done. You won’t go far wrong if a mare has shown good form over a trip more than 2 miles. This year’s winner AIR OF ENTITLEMENT is a case in point and she was ITV’s paddock pick chosen by Alice who waxed lyrical about her. We shan’t talk about MAUGHREEN.

BUMPER

Mares in the bumper have a very good record, even better when they are flat bred against horses which will improve from age. Two reasons we picked BAMBINO FEVER. We liked EL CAIROS in the race too and would have faired better had our beloved Maxwell not been on top. Moore has made public his intention to give him a flat campaign.

GENERAL RULES

Wednesday and Thursday can be tough if not done properly, Thursday more so. Don’t get lured in to give anything back but equally don’t be scared to back a couple ew in a race with a hot favourite; odds on favourites are only just over 50% to come in at the festival in recent history. The idea of a 4 fold, or even 3 fold, accumulator is always better in your thoughts than in reality. And on that point don’t get sucked in by all the preview nights to do too many ante-post bets. The Irish like a preview night more than the Festival.

Respect previous winners at the festival; JASMIN DE VAUX, GOLDEN ACE, FACT TO FILE and LOSSIEMOUTH all won last year and this year, STELLAR STORY, TEAHUPOO, GDC and UNEXPECTED STORY all won last year and were second this year, with DINOBLUE was the other way around. MARINE NATIONALE, JAZZY MATTY and BOB OLINGER all won at the festival in 2023 and this year. MAJBOROUGH also stands out as a nearly repeat winner. That’s a lot of names for 28 races!

Cheltenham is a real horses for courses track, course form is very beneficial. Similarly, Kempton is a horses for courses track - don’t compete two or get carried away with good Kempton form thinking it will carry over to Cheltenham, it often doesn’t. Think JONBON here.

That said, Kempton is going so that makes that easier!

One other thought is the difference of the two tracks at Cheltenham. Everyone should understand that the Old course used at the start of the festival on the Tuesday and Wednesday requires a horse to jump well, travel strongly and quicken. The New Course (Thursday and Friday) requires a different skillset, with only 2 hurdles in the last 7 furlongs you don’t necessarily have to jump well and you don’t really have to quicken but you do need to have stamina as there is a long straight to the finishing line.

A few examples are, EAST INDIA DOCK who didn’t quite stay in the Triumph, he’ll be better suited to the Old course as he travels very well, quickens and jumps a hurdle beautifully. PONIORS beat EAST INDIA DOCK when making his debut over hurdles but with only the two hurdles in the last 7 furlongs it didn’t matter too much how he jumped them. JASMIN DE VAUX is a bad hurdler but it doesn’t matter in the Albert Bartlett as it is on the New Course - he’s quick and he stays well.

AIR OF ENTITLEMENT is another good example of the attributes required for the New course. She stayed well over 2m4f in her race before the Festival, she was dropped back in trip 3f but it was her stamina which helped her beat SIXANDAHALF who is a speedier type. AoE was, like PONIROS, very inexperienced with only the one hurdles run to her name before the Festival but as aforementioned there is less of an emphasis on jumping. Again, we shan’t mention MAUGHREEN!

So, on this basis, who should we be looking at for next year?

Let’s start with the first winner of the Festival, KOPECK DES BORDES. He looks the real deal and will be surely aimed at fences? We’re guessing, of course but then again if LOSSIEMOUTH heads to the Mares, Willie might want two darts to take on CONSTITUTION HILL. Assuming he goes chasing, the Arkle could be mega next year with a more experienced MAJBOROUGH lining up, maybe THE NEW LION, probably LULAMBA and definitely WILLIAM MUNNY. At this stage we’d be tempted by the Donnelly double - SIR GINO for the CC and LULMABA for the Arkle.

Note CONSTITUTION HILL short in the ante-post market for it, but he is 3/1 fave for the Champion Hurdle still. Will Hendo introduce him to a fence to make him respect them more? We think he sticks to hurdles.

The Ryanair is interesting. Hendo must be licking his lips at the thought of JANGO BAIE stepping up in trip. 16/1 will be single figures with an uninterrupted route there. Any new entrant will have to beat the defending champ FACT TO FILE though. Arguably the performance of the Festival, it might be all too tempting for JP to keep him there knowing INOTHEWAYURTHINKIN is only going to improve at 8yo and can win the weak division that is the Gold Cup again. We can’t see him going to the madness that is the Grand National.

In the Champion Chase we’d be all over SIR GINO should he make a full recovery from his infection. That’s no guarantee and for a horse who is still side-lined in hospital, his 3/1 is short but that’s the books running scared. His Boxing Day performance might have holes in it now but to the eye it was devastating.

We absolutely guarantee there will be more ‘will she, won’t she’ questions over LOSSIEMOUTH going to the Champion Hurdle again. She would absolutely be a contender for the Champion Hurdle but why be a contender when you can just win the Mares again? She’s 3/1 for that and will be a lot shorter on the day.

Sticking with the girls, even if we think BRIGHTERDAYAHEAD wasn’t right for her big event, Gordon loves and her bubble might not be burst just yet. That said, she could be now campaigned over fences where should could dominant. 4’s is skinny but might be huge next year.

Note, the above mares market are on the basis we haven’t seen MAUGHREEN do her stuff yet!

As for the hurdle races, the market said CONSTITUTION HILL was back but we’ll never know. Punchestown will rectify that. We think if he stands, he wins. So who can beat him? Well, the new kid on the block THE NEW LION might end up there! He’s 7/1 for that and looks a good ew if you’re inclined to want to take on the fragility of CONNY HILL but we imagine that price might be around for a long while yet. A drop back in trip will be no problem, he’s got gears!

BALLYBURN has to go back over hurdles given his performance over fences this year and Willie could easily target the extremely weak Stayers event. He is 12/1 for that and looks a cracking price because he will be favourite for it should they decide to go that route.

And there you have it, they might be obvious but there are the horses that the betting rules point to if they were all to line up tomorrow - they’ve all been there done it and know how to pay punters.

RISK ON

No bets for today, we thought Gary Moore could have a good day but nothing got us excited enough to put risk on.

What did get us excited was the Curragh yesterday. The contributors behind this newsletter have a serious team of flat horses to go to war with the season.