Equinties - Nicholls update

Equinties

Gm Equinauts

Okay, we’re done with the frost now. Let’s get the mud lovers back on track, please.

Let’s dive in.

HEADINE ROUND UP

THE NICHOLLS UPDATE

Everyone knows that Paul Nicholls’ horses get flu-jabbed at the start of every year. He’s had no runners since January 8th, and for PFN, that means he can get a holiday in! Well, he was sporting his finest tinted spectacles and showed off a little chest hair as he spoke to Betfair Barry for a weekly update.

These videos tend to be somewhat useful, and this one was extra informative as he spoke about a few of his stable stars. This season has been slow for Nicholls so far: REGENT’S STROLL was disappointing in the Challow; CALDWELL POTTER has been beaten at Cheltenham; and his strike rate of 21% is the lowest strike rate since the percentage achieved in 2015/16.  Add to that he’s only has two graded races to his name this season and no Grade 1s, that’s less than ideal going for the champ trainer.

Anyway, what should we take away from the update video? Well, JUBILEE ALPHA is a good place to start. She was even mentioned by Nico de Boinville as ‘the horse from Ditcheat he’d most like to have at Sevenbarrows’ in a recent Q&A!

We know Cheltenham isn’t the main target for Nicholls who focuses on the wider picture of the entire season, a testament to the growing collection of trainer titles stacking up nicely in the trophy cabinet, but he is pretty adamant that should she run well at Windsor on Sunday, JUBILEE ALPHA’s aim is taking on the Grade 2 Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle at the Festival.

This pending prep race at Windsor will also feature ANNO POWER and HONKY TONK HIGHWAY, and should JUBILEE ALPHA win, that’ll put her right in the frame for March where she is currently a 12/1-shot for the race behind MAUGHREEN, who has yet to be seen, and last weekend’s winner SIXANDAHALF.

Speaking of Windsor, CALDWELL POTTER is set to head to the track for the Grade 2 Lightning Novices’ Chase, though L’EAU DU SUD for the same owners is also entered. Well, it looks like the decision has been made as Ged Mason wants to run his Nicholls-trained horse rather than his horse with Dan Skelton.

That Lightning is a race CALDWELL POTTER can win. Back over two miles, he can make use of his jumping against a returning GIDLEIGH PARK and PERSONAL AMBITION who made a big mistake at Ascot last time out.

We’re not pumping Betfair, we have no affiliation with the bookmaker who have pressed affordability checks on us, but their video is worth watching for info on the likes of KALIF DU BERLAIS, KANDOO KID, and more.

FRY UP

Speaking of big weekends, Harry Fry is treating the next seven days as a bit of make or break. That may seem on the extreme end, but he’s had just seven, yes seven, winners this season at a 10% strike rate. We honestly didn’t know how bad things had been for him this campaign until we looked when writing this.

He’s had the likes of LOVE ENVOI retire, but GIDLEIGH PARK and IN EXCELSIS DEO just haven’t done what he was probably hoping for this season, but he could get back on the road to recovery this weekend.

ANNO POWER and GIDLEIGH PARK are the horses leading his charge, and these are big occasions for the two promising horses. One could extend her claims for the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival and the other is looking to get back on track having had a bit of a worrying setback after his chase debut.

Let’s start with GIDLEIGH PARK. Two miles probably isn’t his bag, and a Grade 2 on his return isn’t either, but it’s a fine way to ease him back in with a pipe-opener. Like his trainer, he’s on a bit of a catch-up this season and he may not even head to Cheltenham.

He could be an Aintree horse though, or perhaps he could save himself for a big pot, something like the Paddy Power Gold Cup, next season. Fry said: "He's been given the all-clear by the vets and we've been happy with him as we've gone back up through the gears. He schooled really nicely in the week, so we're looking forward to it. He reset himself within 24 hours of Kempton and it's all gone smoothly since.

"We're starting from scratch as you can put a line through his [chase] debut, but hopefully he can progress from this into the spring. This is very much the starting point and we'll build from there.

"Running in a Grade 2 is not our first choice, but this is the only level-weights novice chase we can run in now. It's about getting him back, having some experience over fences and coming through in one piece. We've made no secret about what we think of him and can't wait to get him back out."

ANNO POWER looks a bit more straightforward and she was given a bad ride by Johnny Burke at Sandown last time seen, so she did well to win. Her, JUBILEE ALPHA, and DIVA LUNA all look like lively outsiders for the big pot at Cheltenham in March. A win on Sunday could see her rep for the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle go properly up.

NOT SO MERRY GERRI

Five hours. That’s how long it took for Gordon Elliott to rule out GERRI COLOMBE from Windsor’s Fleur De Lys Chase having entered him for the contest at midday yesterday.

Look, a horse not travelling over from Ireland for a standard mid-season conditions chase isn’t a massive deal, but the comments surrounding GERRI COLOMBE would be concerning.

On the decision, Elliott said: “He won’t run at the weekend, as he’s just not there yet. “He’s coming, but we are just not there yet. There is no point in running him until he’s ready.

“The Dublin Racing Festival is only a few weeks away so it will be tight for that, but we’ll see. I’ll have to talk with Brian (Acheson, owner).

“It’s possible we could give him a run somewhere over hurdles.” Look, the claxon is sounding a bit with these quotes. Lines like “he’s just not there” and “it will be tight [for the DRF]” sound like comments trainers make for the press when something is a bit amiss with the horse. He looked off in the Ladbrokes Champion Chase at the start of the season and Elliott was quick to suggest getting tests done to see what the problem was.

Those weren’t good words back then, and the fact he is running tight for time in January screams like he’s behind on his Cheltenham Gold Cup prep. Would you want to back a horse for the Gold Cup even though they can’t be ready for a race in early February? We’ll let you find the answer. He’s nine now, so he is getting on. His runs in the Faugheen, Scilly Isles, Brown Advisory, Ladbrokes Champion Chase (2023), Gold Cup, and Bowl were all gruelling affairs.

We don’t want to assume the worst, but is this the start of the GERRI COLOMBE regression? The signs are there.

And while we’re on the topic, DYSART ENOS was and then wasn’t entered for the Grade 2 Mares’ Hurdle at Ascot on Saturday. 

She was also scratched from the Betfair Hurdle yesterday, but she was entered for the Irish Champion Hurdle on Thursday. What is going on with this horse?

RISK ON

More NH cancellations mean it’s only the all-weather to entertain us - Newcastle and Southwell (no, we’re not watching Dundalk!). We’ll play a shorties double to feed the betting chimp:

15.38 JUJUBELLA & 17.15 SHES THE DUCHESS

The first for Lucinda Russell can win again stepped up in trip. She has half sister by AUSTRALIA rated quite a bit higher and arguably, this girl is better bred, so her ceiling could be a lotter higher than todays 58. Boughey’s is simply expected to just win this weak race on debut. 7/4 is short to rely on two horses on the flat but could look good by this afternoon.

Subscribe to Premium to read the rest.

Become a paying subscriber of Premium to get access to this post and other subscriber-only content.

Already a paying subscriber? Sign In.

A subscription gets you:

  • • The weekender edition (Mon-Fri still free)
  • • The weekends best bets
  • • That warm fuzzy feeling inside knowing the intern gets fed
  • • Only £1 a week!