Equinties - crazy punter wins $3m

Gm Equinauts

Unless your name is Ronan Keating, you’d have seen the result of this years Melbourne Cup, won by 80/1 shot KNIGHTS CHOICE, and thought ‘well, what a weird one’.

Landing bets and remaining ahead of the bookies requires a beautiful blend of skill, knowledge and a whole lot of luck.

But on the rare occasion when global race days like the Grand National or the Melbourne Cup invite a mass-participation of millions of people speculatively punting small change on favourite names and jockey silks (or if you’re Ronan Keating - betting on a former singer turned jockey), brilliant lottery win betting stories always come to the fore.

Some lucky punter turned $100 into $3.2m by picking the correct top 4!

Bravo to the person mad enough to put such a bet on - no doubt they’re still up partying, trying to put a dent into the winnings… while we all go back to work.

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

BIG BETFAIR

After Patrick Neville and Paul Nicholls ruled out THE REAL WHACKER and BRAVEMANSGAME from the Betfair Chase over the last few days, it would be easy to think that the Haydock feature could be a let-down this year.

However, Dan Skelton has come out and confirmed that GREY DAWNING will head fresh to Haydock Park on November 23rd despite a “frustrating” preparation.

The Turners winner was an intended runner in both the Charlie Hall and Colin Parker to begin his season this weekend, though Skelton made the move to pull him from both despite the good to soft conditions at Carlisle on Sunday.

If we’re being honest, the ground was probably sound enough for him to run on Sunday and Skelton might have made a bit of a mistake here.

That’s all in the past now, and he’s going to have to send his stable star to the Betfair Chase on his first start of the season.

That may sound like a big ask, but five of the last six winners won first time out including PROTEKTORAT for Skelton in 2022, and one could argue that BRAVEMANSGAME lost last year’s race because he went to the Charlie Hall.

"It's very frustrating," said Skelton. "I thought the ground at Carlisle was fantastic on Sunday. They did a great job. It was good to soft in the main, a bit better in places, and exactly as described, but we're dealing with a horse who wants at least good to soft or softer. He's never run in October.

"I hope to get him away for a gallop and then take him straight to the Betfair. I'm disappointed we've not been able to get him out. We really wanted to but we can't and it's as simple as that. I'm really happy with him and can't wait to get him started but safety first."

If the ground is too quick for GREY DAWNING to run at Haydock this month, HEWICK is likely to be a big player replacement as Shark Hanlon confirmed he’s targeting the race, though better ground is a must for him.

More: https://www.racingtv.com/news/hewick-lined-up-for-haydock-trip-if-the-ground-stays-good

A LUST FOR MORE

What to make of STARLUST now?

He benefitted from a pace collapse in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint on Saturday having failed in Group 1 company three times before this season.

He’s not a bonified Group 1 horse yet, but he’s still an improving three-year-old which is why he’s attracted some attention from down under in regards to a stallion career.

Alex Cole, racing manager for owners Jim and Fitri Hay, has confirmed that his phone has been white hot since the success and most of the calls have come “mainly from down under”.

It makes sense. He is by ZOUSTAR, who has a great standing down under, and he has quite the record on quick ground. And he clearly loves a bend - which he’ll get a lot of in Australia.

But, his racing career is not done yet, as Cole said: “[Next year] I'd have to work back from the King Charles III and he loves York. He's won twice and been placed in a Nunthorpe there, so the Nunthorpe would have to be very much on the agenda.

“He's going to have to be managed, but as I say, he's a three-year-old who has raced in four countries this year–it's an incredible feat, both from the horse and the trainer.”

His season next year will certainly be an interesting one.

More: https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/starlust-suddenly-a-colt-in-demand-after-breeders-cup-glory/ 

A LOOK AHEAD

Despite remaining ahead in our ‘A Look Ahead’ (bad pun), we haven’t done it for a while due to a few reasons namely the lottery of declarations and mixed going - the weather has played havoc this season.

But, we’re bringing it back for this week on a Tuesday because we have one of the more unique handicaps of the jumps season this weekend: the Grand Sefton.

Yes, it’s the first time this season we get to see the Grand National fences, so let’s give a quick summary of our thoughts.

Heading the market is KING TURGEON who has a lovely pedigree for good ground, should that be the going on Saturday (likely). At 6yo, he’s still on the up having won on seasonal re-appearance last week at Chepstow. He didn’t just win well, he jumped big and fairly bolted up. He looked bloody brilliant and will definitely have his followers on Saturday as he’s a beautiful grey. Pipe last won this race in 2014, can he regain his title?

Well, FRERO BANBOU was third last year off 133 and gets in off 130 now. November is for Venetia Williams and this current mark is his lowest since March 2021, so he’s well-handicapped! Last year was on heavy ground though and this year will be verging on good, see below GESSKILLE winning (we backed!):

PERCUSSION was second last year and is one pound higher. He has a bit of good ground form having finished third in the 2022 Becher on good to soft and won a Southwell handicap chase in May 2022. He’s been a hard horse to win with, but he does do well over these fences.

ARIZONA CARDINAL improved impressively last season from 123 to 142, the last of his wins came in the Topham over the National fences at the Grand National meeting. A mark of 142 is lofty and good ground is a small question mark, however.

ELDORADO ALLEN is a fun little entry here off a mark of 150. He went well off 154 on seasonal reappearance last year and was second to BRAVEMANSGAME in the Charlie Hall on seasonal reappearance in 2022. He could go well fresh, and he’d have the pace for 2m5f on decent ground if needed.

PERSIAN TIME is an interesting entry. He is race-fit after a spin at Kempton lto and he ran well over 2m4f as a novice hurdler. Beating SOUL ICON at Kempton last year has worked out well as he improved 11lbs to 142 and he goes well on decent ground, so he should go well off 134. That day he won at Kempton in March came in a bad spell for Nicky Henderson as well.

HARPER’S BROOK has a question to answer regarding how well he’ll go fto, but he was clearly talented whilst quirky for Ben Pauling. Now with Dan Skelton, he goes well on good and a change of training procedures may snap him out of his quirky characteristics.

Of the rest, IDALKO BIHOUE is feasibly well-handicapped and still on the improve.

Last year, he won on good at Cheltenham off 127 and he tried to chase down NICKLE BACK when giving 2lbs away at Warwick before falling. That looks like nice form. He goes well fresh and could be interesting for the fairly in-form Twiston-Davies team.

Verdict: KING TURGEON will be a tough nut to crack given the way he jumped lto should he turn up. But there is another who catches the eye and we know he is definitely going - GABORIOT. He runs off such a low feather-weight it’ll feel like he’s running free! He rep’s Olly Greenall, last years winning yard who will have targeted this in memory of their much loved and ill-fated GESSKILLE, last years victor. GABORIOT is the definition of a French import who needed time to acclimatise, he did nothing in 2023 but climbed through the ratings last season winning 5 times and hitting a mark of 127 from a lowly 110. That said, he’s still on the up, he jumps like a buck, moves nicely enough to appreciate the good ground and more, loves his racing - don’t forget he effectively won the Fox Hunter albeit riderless! It’ll be emotional for the yard should he win and the story will be Sunday’s headlines… let’s try and write them now. GABORIOT is the pick at 14.1. If his price action is anything like WHITE RHINO’s last Saturday, he will drift so small bet now and top up on the day.

RISK ON

No bet’s as yet. Any plays will be posted on X @equinties.

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