Equinties - festival entries

Author

BGP Capital
January 08, 2025

Equinties

Gm Equinauts

The road to Cheltenham really is on now, isn’t it? Christmas has passed meaning, Cheltenham’s Trials Day is all but around the corner and racing X’s murmurs for the DRF are getting louder and louder.

Let’s dive in.

HEADINE ROUND UP

CHELTENHAM ENTRIES

Yesterday, we got our first official entries for the Cheltenham Festival, specifically for the Champion Chase, Ryanair Chase, and Gold Cup. So, what can we learn from the entries?

Well, JP McManus has indirectly stated his running plans for the staying chasers…

SPILLANE’S TOWER, INOTHEWAYURTHINKIN and I AM MAXIMUS have been left out of the Gold Cup, though the former has been entered for the Ryanair with FACT TO FILE and CORBETTS CROSS making up McManus’ chances in the blue riband event (both are also entered in the Ryanair as well).

This seems sensible from top to bottom. SPILLANE’S TOWER was a winner over 2m4f last season before his Punchestown win over three miles, so he may just prefer the test of a Ryanair, CORBETTS CROSS, though he may not win a Gold Cup, will stay the trip, and FACT TO FILE has plenty to like.

Speaking of the Gold Cup, the dire state of Britain’s staying chasers was further highlighted yesterday.

Just five, yes five, British-trained horses were entered, and it would be hard to say any of them can win. GREY DAWNING would have a chance if it turned bottomless, and maybe L’HOMME PRESSE has a slim chance of causing a surprise at the party too. THE REAL WHACKER would need quick ground (not guaranteed, even in March) to have a place chance but ROYALE PAGAILLE and AHOY SENOR would have to start now in order to lay up with the field.

There’s also one French entry in the Gold Cup, Ryanair, and Champion Chase, but he deserves his own section.

IL EST INTÉRESSANT

IL EST FRANCIAS picked up entries for all three open Grade 1 chases at this year’s Cheltenham Festival. He’s worth talking about because if you tuned into the Racing Post or Racing X yesterday, you’d almost believe he’s beaten JONBON in the Champion Chase already.

Is JONBON the most underrated Grade 1 horse ever?

Look, the entry for the Champion Chase makes sense, and he could well bowl along from the front and give some horses something to think about over two miles. He didn’t stay over three miles doing what he did in the King George, so if you bring him back in trip, he could be hard to catch!

It’s hard to get away from the fact that he was winning over 2m2f, 2m3f, and 2m6f on slow ground in France, which doesn’t quite scream like a two-mile championship winner on spring ground, but we do think he’s better on a faster going.

So, what about the Ryanair?

We’ve been saying how open the race is for a long time, and there are a few at the top of the market that are not going to the race. FACT TO FILE and EL FABIOLO are potentially doubtful, as is GAELIC WARRIOR, and who knows what is happening with GREY DAWNING.

The race distance would suit him better and he might just be able to serve up a carbon copy performance of what ALLAHO in 2021 and 2022:

ALLAHO was a similar type to what IL EST FRANCAIS is now. Go to the Ryanair, and if GAELIC WARRIOR doesn’t turn up, it could be a King George round II humdinger against BANBRIDGE!

ROYAL TARGETING

Royal Windsor could see some nice horses grace the track over the next few seasons. Nicky Henderson hasn’t hidden his love for jumps returning to the course and the quaint track is hosting two days of the revamped Berkshire Winter Million Meeting next weekend.

Windsor for the Lightning Novices’ Chase, Ascot for the Clarence House, and then Windsor for the Fleur De Lys Chase is the schedule next weekend, and it’s set to be a cracker as long as the weather plays ball.

This slightly altered concept has certainly grabbed the attention of many trainers, notably Gordon Elliott who is set to send a genuine Gold Cup contender to the feature 2m6f Grade 2 Fleur De Lys Chase. That is, of course, GERRI COLOMBE after he missed Christmas entirely. His last run came behind ENVOI ALLEN when disappointing in the Grade 1 Ladbrokes Champion Chase.

On the decision to miss Christmas, Elliott said: "I haven't been 100 per cent happy with him and that's why you didn't see him. He just wasn't quite himself after Down Royal and he's still not where I want him to be, but he's getting there. He just wasn't sparkling in his work before Christmas, so I said we'd be patient and give it a miss."

And on his next race, he added: "Maybe Windsor. There's a race over there the weekend after next that's worth a lot of money and it's been in my head for him. If he works well before that, we'll go there, but if he's still not quite there in his work at home I'd have no problem going straight to the Gold Cup. We'll see if he makes Windsor. If he does, great. If he doesn't, it won't bother me too much.”

Whichever way you read those comments, he would have to have serious question marks put against his name, not only for a potential Gold Cup bid but for this season in general. Maybe last year’s Gold Cup and Aintree win left a mark? We only really know in the subsequent seasons.

RISK ON

We definitely have bets today but we’re going to post a little later on X @equinties