Equinties - a great gone

Gm Equinauts

We only had one bet at Stratford yesterday, unfortunately on a faller. And yes, you’re reading that right - we drove all the way to Stratford (a 2 hour drive from our Berkshire base), and we only bet in one race. .

Some might ask ‘what’s the point?’. Well, other than the fact the card was littered with odds on shots, keeping your hands in your pockets is good practice. When when you can learn to enjoy racing without betting, your long-term yield in the game will ramp up markedly just for the simple act of protecting your bank.

Why? Because sometimes, simply doing nothing is the most powerful play of all.

It sounds counterintuitive but we refer back to the advice we’ve pumped out since starting this newsletter - bet less but bet with conviction.

Fine, the small stakes multiples for fun is okay if that’s all you’re doing but you can’t be bitter you’re losing because, well, they’re lotto plays!

Taking betting seriously to provide an additional source of income requires one to have the mental aptitude to do absolutely nothing.

It might sound like a frivolous piece of advice, but we imagine if you asked people to really think long and hard about ways they could improve, we have no doubt it would be to bet less.

But that doesn’t mean not betting at all.

Whether it’s from your own methodology of selection or close contacts, play the strong plays, and then… do nothing. If they don’t come in, don’t chase - it will only compound the hurt. Protect your bank.

Go racing and practice. Instead of playing with your hard earned cash, simply paper trade. Back horses in your head and see how you do. And try it from just looking at the horses in the pre’s. Not the form or the price.

At Stratford we stood by the parade ring all day just looking and answering the questions you should be asking yourself like, are they big enough for jumps? Is the coat gleaming? Do they have a nice walk? Are they sweating up? You can even tell when a horse is getting too hot before they start sweating, you can smell them!

It’s a brilliant way to get your eye in without the liability and you’ll have a new appreciation for the animal.

Anyway, we can talk all day about this subject but only you are the one who can make the changes so we’ll move on to something far more exciting….

Breeders Cup tonight!

Make sure to subscribe to our Weekender edition to receive our BC previews.

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

BRILLIANT BROADCASTER DIES

The voice of racing for many who enjoyed his broadcasts, Alastair Down has sadly passed away.

Every one knows how brilliant he was, there is nothing else to say, We just urge you go to YouTube and watch his content. It’s magical.

RIP Alastair, you were a treasure.

DOUBT FOR DAWNING

Well, it’s basically confirmed, GREY DAWNING is unlikely to run this weekend due to the ground.

Despite his likely absence from the Charlie Hall Chase, it’s still a better race than we once thought at the entry stage. In what looked like a guaranteed four-runner race earlier this week, we could have six runners thanks to the inclusion of CONFLATED and SAM BROWN.

The interesting declaration is the former as Gordon Elliott is keeping GERRI COLOMBE at home and sending CONFLATED, who has had a bit of a run already this season (he did unseat), over the water.

As for GREY DAWNING, Skelton was very open about the likelihood of GREY DAWNING running this weekend at either Wetherby or Carlisle… It’s slim.

So where could he start his season?

Well, he won a Turners over two-and-half, so the 1965 Chase at Ascot over 2m5f could be a nice place if it rains. Or he could run in the Coral Gold Cup off a big weight and come on for it. He probably wouldn’t win, but it would be good for fitness.

HOW HIGH CAN L’EAU GO?

Speaking of smart grey chasers from the Dan Skelton yard, L’EAU DU SUD started his season over the big obstacles smartly by winning a two-mile novice chase at Stratford yesterday.

Okay, the race was terrible - NO RISK DE FLOS needed the run and deeper ground, ENVIOUS EDITOR is getting on a bit and has swapped yards more than an Amo horse, STORM OF LIGHT is no good and WALKING ON AIR looks cooked.

But still, visually he was impressive.

The fourth fence was a bit nerving as he pretty much jumped on top of the obstacle, but his leaps both before and after that mistake looked good.

He had a slick action, gave them good airtime, and barely touched a twig. Smart for not an overly big horse.

When you look through the form of the horse, he’s a bit different to the usual Skelton horses.

He came from France having won a Listed hurdle on his final start on the other side of the channel, so he already had a mark of 132 on his first run at Haydock when well-beaten in a handicap hurdle.

He was third in the 2023 Morebattle when behind COLONEL MUSTARD who went on to run into RUBAUD and STATE MAN (good form), but by the time the 2024 Betfair Hurdle rolled in, he was sent off 28/1 - a huge price considering he was sent off 7/2 to win the County and 11/4 to win the Scottish Champion Hurdle on his next two starts.

We shouldn’t be lauding him with too much praise right now as his Graded form isn’t directly there, but one can envisage the Grade 1 Henry VIII Novices’ Chase might be a race to test his ability.

The Grade 2 November Novices’ Chase at the Cheltenham November meeting could also be a contest for him if he wants more track experience.

He does have a small preference for softer ground, so maybe the Henry VIII Novices’ Chase at the notoriously soft Sandown would be more up his street.

TODAY’S THE DAY

BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD is back.

After the decision was made to keep her over hurdles, the five-year-old mare is back in the Grade 3 Bottlegreen Hurdle in the 2:05 at Down Royal.

So, will she win?

Good ground is an unknown, but she won on good to soft at Aintree in a Grade 1 and won her bumper on yielding, so she should be fine.

She was beaten in a sprint at Cheltenham, but GOLDEN ACE is a smart mare and smashing up ILE ATLANTIQUE, JIMMY DU SEUIL, and STAFFORDSHIRE KNOT at Aintree is decent form.

She gets a single pound from DADDY LONG LEGS who is technically best at the weights, and he is race-fit having won a Grade 3 at Tipperary 26 days ago.

He’s also likely to prefer the ground more than BETTERDAYSAHEAD, so he’s interesting even if he doesn’t own your typical NH pedigree.

KING OF KINGSFIELD is the other Gigginstown horse in the contest.

It’s hard to argue with the Grade 1 form he has as he finished second to FARREN GLORY at Fairyhouse in December, but he probably has a preference for softer ground and is he really that good? We aren’t convinced.

Unfortunately, SMOOTH TOM, MISS FOURIE, and BREAGAGH won’t be winning this. Sorry guys.

BUMPERS

UTTOEXETER

We imagine Ben Pauling felt smug yesterday. He was at Stratford with one horse and went home with one winner, but we have the sneaky suspicion he counted SIXMILEBRIDGE’s defeat as another little win. Losing those Megson horses was a huge blow to his yard. A sidenote, the horse who beat him, MYTHICAL MOON was in fact our paddock pick - lovely horse.

We digress, Ben trains the fave in this, THE HAWKSTONIAN, and the market move is probably the herd betting on the premise the yard cleaned up in bumpers last season, compounded by the likelihood Pauling will want the horse who Jeremy Clarkson is the face of, to win first time up purely for marketing purposes. This lad is out of top NH sire JUKEBOX JURY but from a bad mare who hasn’t produced anything of note.

BEAU GOLD for JJ has a better pedigree. By an up and coming French sire who is getting bumper winners, this lad is related to Willie Mullins’ PREDATORS GOLD who, obviously, won a bumper - he is trained by the Wizard after all! A brilliant pedigree. This lad was bought before PREDATORS GOLD went on to come second (twice) in a Grade 1, he’d have gone for a lot more than 90k otherwise.

FRESH PERSPECTIVE runs for Snowden who always does well in bumpers. He has a very flat orientated pedigree but does has stamina to prove, even if he did win a point - it could have been a bad one. He’s being well backed and will love the faster good ground today.

SURREY LORD as a nice enough NH pedigree but might be one for handicaps over hurdles later, NATHANS RUN has a staying flat pedigree but might find things a little too quick for him today, he’d want the ground a lot deeper and LITTLE DIPPER, RIVER RIDER, BELLS OF UFFORD, FAST WORK and ROCHESTER BRINKS will be out of their depths here.

Verdict: Despite the huge market move for Snowden’s now fave, we really think is just JJ vs Pauling and annoyingly we prefer Pauling as a trainer over JJ, annoying because BEAU GOLD has the better pedigree! So even though we love Pauling horses, we’ll bet (small) the pedigree over the trainer. If BEAU GOLD is anything like his older sibling, he could be a machine! There’ll be future winners from this bumper.

BUMPER RESULTS

03/10/24 KAYLAN 2/1 (11/8 SP) - 1st

08/10/24 LAURA LOU 11/1 & PLAYAWAY GIRL 14/1 - 6th & 9th

09/10/24 JOTO 2/1 6th

09/10/24 ID GO MANIAC 5/2 - 4th

12/10/24 MONEYGARROW 5/1 (13/8 SP) - 1st

16/10/24 KINGSLEY 7/1 - 8th

18/10/24 STRONG RUN 5/1 - 2nd

22/10/24 SECRET SNIPER 5/1 - 3rd

23/10/24 THE LONG WALK 100/30 - 3rd

27/10/24 SIOG GEAL 5/2 - 2nd

27/10/24 QUINNS REWARD 9/1 (14/1 SP) - 7th

27/10/24 TENNESSE TANGO 9/1 (12/1 SP) - 1st

28/10/24 ALLSTITCHEDUP 12/1 - 9th

30/10/24 KOSAC D’OUDAIRIES 11/2 (5/2 SP) - 5th

RISK ON

Probably not a big betting race but the first at HQ looks a belter and historically has thrown up good ones - AUDIENCE has won it and ECONOMICS placed 4th last year. Norm tells us Ed Walker’s NOBLE CHAMPION is very nice and we think you should keep eyes on CHARMING LIFE who was a beautiful yearling. A notebook race but we will also go with the message and play NOBLE CHAMPION standard stakes at 11/4.

There are two good jumps cards on in Wetherby and Uttoxeter too. Punting is hard here as it’s good ground every where. it’s nice to see one of favourite horses in MIDNIGHT RIVER back. We’ll be cheering him on, but our main plays are:

13.25 ADAAYLIGHT DANCER

This is a terrible race, like, really bad and it won’t take much winning. We normally don’t like horses coming from overseas to new yards as they need time to acclimatise but this girl hasn’t had time to be let down - she’s fresh off the boat and supposedly working well enough to be in with a squeak at 16/1.

14.25 LIAM SWAGGER

We maxed this lad lto he can win again today, more, needs to if he’s to even have a whiff of the Triumph (which he won’t win). 11/8.

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