Equinties - Ascot Friday

Gm Equinauts

Last day of the team not being in full force, back in time for Christmas and THAT Boxing Day card. Woof!

Let’s dive in.

You’ve all heard of Viagra. The one time, pump and dump pill. Lasts what - 30 minutes? Rubbish.

For the first time ever, Cialis is available without prescription. And boy it’s an absolute game changer.

Approved for medical use only in 2003, the French call it ‘le weekend’ because basically this thing lasts in your system for 3 day.

Boner’s on demand, for 3 three days!

Perfect for a weekend away when you know you’re going to need a little help.

Try it through UK MEDS, use discount code EQUINTIES10 and thank us later.

p.s none of this is medical advice but we’ve tried it…

HEADLINE ROUND UP

ASCOT FRIDAY

Today’s card at Ascot is a seriously cracking card. From the opening handicap hurdle to the concluding bumper, there are some nice, exciting horses out to watch. So, here are our main takeaways from the day: 

12.45. The opening contest could be a nice race to see ROGER POL win again. He is on the radar of many since having won in November and the 10lb claim of Will Featherstone aiding today. 

ROGER POL is in the up but what about the horses to catch on the way  down the handicap? Well, FIFTY BALL is an Ascot winner and is 9lbs below his last winning mark, so Gary Moore could be looking to add to the Christmas funds after landing two gambles Wednesday and MOT A MOT has beaten 140 horses like ANYHARMINASKING and races off 114. 

Tough race, we’ll leave alone. 

13.20. Although he is very good, we didn’t expect to see WELCOME TO CARTRIES at 4/7 in the second race, though an opening price of 4/5 did look ever so slightly more reasonable. 

His BEAT THE BAT form has been franked and Ditcheat are expecting a good performance from him today. Mind you, this race is warm enough with everything unexposed and ready to improve. 

Paulings WALK IN THE PARK, unimaginatively named LEADER IN THE PARK (such a shit name) is nicely bred and looks an ew to nothing vs the fave (if Pauling has him right). 

13.55. The third race is a limited novices’ handicap chase with just four runners, though there’s probably only two who can win. PERSIAN TIME ran a good race in defeat at Newbury lto and will come on for the run, and the McNeills think he is well-handicapped, so he is priced accordingly. 

That being said, AUTHORISED SPEED is making his chasing debut off a mark of 133 on what is also his handicap debut. He was thought of as a Supreme horse last year and even managed to put 15 lengths between himself and BROADWAY BOY in a maiden hurdle, so he could feasibly be well-handicapped off 133. Moore’s horses can often be too wild first time out so watch him in the pre’s. 

14.30. In the second-half of the day, the two-mile handicap hurdle is starting to see the market correct itself as BAD is a respectable favourite. He’s had time to acclimatise from France and is now progressing nicely. 

He finished a good second in the Gerry Fielden and when speaking to Ben Pauling after, he said he’ll be handy in these races going forward. Off 122, he could nicely handicapped.

That being said, the race around him is a hot contest. Plenty on Racing X believe IMMORTAL is a winner in waiting off 109 and he’ll come on for the race lto. Hendo’s lot have been pulling  their hair out over this horse - they thinks he’s smart but could he just be a morning glory horse - shows up on the gallops at home but not on track. Wouldn’t like to take him on just in case he shows up.

15.05. In the penultimate contest, there are just four runners to focus on. DJELO sets the recent standard and is very short at 6/4. 

KANDOO KID was good lto but it’s surprising he’s coming here considering Nicholls mentioned about stepping him up to three miles.

MIGHT I might be the best handicapped? His fourth in the Martin Pipe behind IROKO and BUDDY ONE is good form and he is a classy horse.

UNEXPECTED PARTY is eye catching back on better ground as his pedigree and last time out performance suggests he needs. He’s got load of experience and is good on his day - shouldn’t be bottom of the market and is worth a poke unless Dan is handicapping him?

To finish the card, we have a very hot bumper with BRECHIN CASTLE and CAPTAIN BELLAMY, two horses who are well-regarded. 

See Young Blood for full analysis. 

SAVILLS FOR COLOMBE

Horse racing can be a funny game sometimes and this was reiterated yesterday as plans for GERRI COLOMBE seemingly changed twice in the space of a few hours. The day kicked off with Brian Acheson of Robcour suggesting the New Year’s Day Chase at Tramore as an option… 

And the day ended with a confirmation that GERRI COLOMBE would run in the Savills Chase at Leopardstown rather than Tramore or Kempton. 

On the decision, Elliott said: "We've made our minds up and Gerri Colombe will go to Leopardstown next week for the Savills Chase. With the ground continuing to dry out at Kempton, we just felt the race at Leopardstown would be a better option for him.

"He's been in great form since Down Royal and it was always our intention to run him at Christmas before freshening him up for the Gold Cup. I'm very happy with him and we're looking forward to the race next week." 

That means the Brown Advisory runner-up will now clash with GALOPIN DES CHAMPS, FASTORSLOW, ENVOI ALLEN, and A PLUS TARD in a mouthwatering contest.

SAMCRO BACK AT CHELTENHAM

Everyone loves SAMCRO, right? The ever-lovable horse was a hit over both hurdles and fences, yet his career under rules is still hurt by the fact he never quite reached his full potential. That aside, the 11-year-old has the Cheltenham Festival in his sights now that he has switched back to the PtP scene. 

The two-time Festival winner has his eyes set on the Hunter Chase at Cheltenham in March and ever since his switch from rules to the PtP code, he has been unbeaten in four runs. He will return to a racetrack on Boxing Day for 14.33 at Down Royal - a three-mile hunters chase - and if he obliges here, all roads will be leading back to Prestbury Park for this classy animal.

YOUNG BLOOD

ASCOT BUMPER 

BRECHIN CASTLE is relatively strong favourite here for Brookhouse having done nothing wrong by winning his two bumpers and a point before that. A half to a nice mare for Alan King, he owns a text book NH pedigree. 

Surprised lto bumper pick CAPTAIN BELLAMY isn’t fave here, not for his lto effort, more just hype he carries. Hype was proved fitting as he did look good in his bumper despite being green to maintain his unbeaten racing record. 

CELTIC DINO was the bumper pick lto in a deep race and boy did he bolt up. He has a lovely pedigree, is a half to SAINT SEGAL and reps a trainer who harvests bumpers. Big player. 

LET IT RAIN is the first filly in the line up and was a monumental gamble lto for Dan Skelton. Related to WHISPER, she has a lovely ped but we’ll be surprised if a girl is going to beat the big boys today. 

HORACES PEARL was a lto bumper pick (god we’re good at bumpers) and is the 5th consecutive horse in this line up to be unbeaten so far. Won easily at Wincanton and has pedigree to be anything. 

I WONT BACK DOWN is a 100k new recruit for the Noel Fehily syndicate. By CHAMPS ELYSEES and out of a MONTJEU mare, this horse is bred for flat staying trips.  

MARVELLOUS MICK is ANOTHER unbeaten horse in this race but hasn’t been seen since this time last year.  He probably won’t need the run knowing Nicholls and has to be feared given he’s by super sire BLUE BRESIL with winners dam side. 

The others can’t win.

Verdict: 11 lto winners in this race, 8 unbeaten - this is a deep bumper with some useful ped’s on display. The market typically has it right in bumpers and this market is suggesting the winner comes from  Brookhouse, Nicholls, Skelton or Thomas - who all were visually very impressive lto with, for us, marginal preference for CELTIC DINO who looked pretty good on debut.

But… we’re taking on the market consensus. We’re going for a horse who, if these were all unraced, would be the pure pedigree pick. 

I WONT BACK DOWN was last seen hosing up in an Irish bumper, he didn’t beat much but obviously caught a few peoples eye and subsequently fetched 100k. He has a pedigree perfect for bumpers and can spring a surprise at a huge 18.0 on the machine for a self made ew. Evens for top 5 looks a solid bet for one half of a double.

RISK ON

A full house of winners Wednesday, a full house of losers Thursday. We should have just maxed the Varian horse but hey, that’s gambling. Just don’t chase the W, stick to the prog and find the next winner.

We will play the bumper horse both ew and to place top 5 even money.

15.15 DANYAH

Was last seen winning the Group 1 Al Quoz beating a decent field. Although he has penalty he is clear on ratings and loves Meydan.

15.25 SMART CASUAL 

Our redemption bets have never lost. Like, ever. JP doesn’t really bet anymore but his men do and this was their gamble lto. He got beat… poor horse was probably surprised not have been stopped. Ground perfect today - pedigree bet.