Equinties - arc week

Gm Equinauts

Happy Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe week to all who celebrate!

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

ARC WEEK

We didn’t big up up the season-defining race that is the Arc in yesterday’s newsletter because the obligatory weekend review took up important space, but today marks one less sleep until we head to Paris Longchamp, and we couldn’t be any more excited.

The Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe is special for so many reasons. It creates legendary horses, engaging battles, and iconic pieces of commentary. We’re looking at you, SEA THE STARS.

It’s also a natural point for us UK-based fans to start switching on jumps brains on. Of course, there is the small matter of British Champions Day, but Chepstow is the week after, and then it’ll soon be The Showcase Meeting at Cheltenham. Anyway, what about this year’s Arc - what type of race could we be looking at, and who’s still in contention?

Let’s start with the ground, because this is a hotly-discussed topic ahead of any renewal. Last year was a bit of a swamp, ACE IMPACT’s year was rattling quick, and ALPINISTA’s Arc was bottomless. This year will probably be more ACE IMPACT than ALPINISTA, as there is minimal rain predicted for France, and they haven’t had much over the last week or so.

They may get showers on Saturday and Sunday, but there doesn’t seem to be any substantial rain that could massively affect conditions. Now, we’d love to predict what the official going could be, but the French work in their magical ways, and even they throw out pretty sketchy descriptions, case and point ACE IMPACT’s Arc which was apparently good to soft. Hahaha, no.

We’d be working off good ground. It won’t be rapid for those horses who like a road (cough cough Japan), and it won’t be bottomless for those mud lovers.
Annoyingly, it’s likely to be ‘no excuses’ ground, though some of those proper mudlarks may find it tricky. What else is noteworthy ahead of this weekend?

Well, 17 remain for the race, but MINNIE HAUK still needs to be added at the supplementation stage later this week. 18 runners in an Arc is thoroughly intriguing, as the draw and track position will play a bit more of a factor.

As for some of these contenders, apparently Oisin Murphy has been booked for the ride on BYZANTINE DREAM, one of the Japanese raiders, since Royal Ascot.
That’s rather bullish, and quite bolshy from Murphy to tie himself to an outside ride so far away from the race itself. On the horse, Murphy said: "He's had a faultless prep so far, and so have the other two horses, to be fair. It's a race they [Japan] are going to win sometime soon, so hopefully this fellow can run his best race. It's dry in Paris at the moment and I hope it stays that way. 

"I was delighted with him in the trial [Prix Foy]. He broke okay, then stumbled, but he travelled around, didn't get keen and he showed a very good turn of foot. I thought Sosie was a very good benchmark.

"I'm really hopeful. They seemed delighted with him at home. I don't think there are any question marks, really. He's going to be ridden quiet no matter what and he has a good turn of foot. There's lots in his favour."

Murphy seems confident for a horse at 10/1, and Japan also have CRIOX DU NORD and ALOHI ALII, who have been very impressive so far this season. Could this finally be the year for Japan? It’s not a vintage renewal, and they have all had a bit of a European prep ahead of the Arc, which could be crucial. They might just do it this year.

We may not know what the ground is going to be like on Saturday, but a few of the French-trained sets of connections are thinking that soft ground could be the order of the day, which is interesting to what the weather reports are suggesting. Christophe Ferland, trainer of the Arc co-favouriye AVENTURE, will probably be hoping for softer conditions with his four-year-old mare, as he said: “We can't control the weather and we heard this morning that the ground is 3.7 which is fine.

“There's no more rain forecast until maybe Sunday afternoon but we're at a time where the track does not dry out all that quickly because we've got very cold nights and I don't think the ground will change very much between now and Sunday.

"She's as good in soft ground as she is in heavy, so it's not going to impact any decisions."

At this stage of the week, the hype is still real, and the possibilities are very much there. Things like the weather will become clearer as the days roll on.

NO SLOWING UP

It may be Arc week, but we can still have a look at some big jumps races this season, and we should start getting giddy about the King George at Kempton on Boxing Day.
In the few months leading up to last year’s contest, there were a plethora of horses who could have headed to the race.

GAELIC WARRIOR was one, FACT TO FILE was another, and FASTORSLOW could have also gone there, but injury plagued him last season.

Well, he’s back in Martin Brassil’s yard, and that is quite exciting. Just think about this year’s potential King George. GAELIC WARRIOR, IL EST FRANCAIS (now with Tom George), JANGO BAIE, BANBRIDGE, THE JUKEBOX MAN, and maybe even FACT TO FILE or INOTHEWAYURTHINKIN. That’s a strong potential field, with THE JUKEBOX MAN and JANGO BAIE representing last year’s novices.

Anyway, how is FASTORSLOW? On his well-being, Brassil said: "Fastorslow is great. I couldn't be happier with him, to be honest with you. He's been back with me about two months at this stage. We got him back in to us nice and early and have kept him ticking along. It's a case of so far so good with him and he's over all his problems, which is great. 

"He just got a bit of heat at the top of his leg after he ran in the John Durkan last year and, with a horse like him, you just have to be careful. We didn't rush him and gave him all the time he needed. That seems to have done him the world of good as he looks great and is moving great now.

"The King George is definitely the plan. We're going to stick to the same sort of plan we had mapped out for him last season, which would mean he will return in the John Durkan at Punchestown before we have a crack at the King George. I still think that race is made for him. 

"He seems to have all his old swagger back anyway. He looks as well as he ever did and the thing about him is that he doesn't have much mileage on the clock at all. He's only nine and I think he's only had 17 runs in his whole life. He hasn't been over-raced at any stage of his career. 

"We're very excited about the season ahead for him and looking forward to getting him back out at Punchestown."
Keeping him off for most of the season seems like a great move. A lesson in horse management from the super shrewd Brassil.

RACHEL FROM ACCOUNTS

“I’ve never betted in my life.” That was the grammatically incorrect confession from Rachel Reeves on ITV News yesterday, as she gave her clearest signal yet that there will be a tax hike on gambling. How much more unaware of the topic could you really sound?

“They should pay their fair share of taxes” looks like a definite indication that the bookies will be getting taxed more, which will only affect us punters and the horse racing industry as a whole.

Just to remind you, based on data from the Netherlands, the BHA has predicted that the industry could lose out on £66 million from the sport’s income in just the first year.

But Labour doesn’t have the foresight to see how damaging it is long term. They just look at something and think ‘yeh, we can tax that’.

It such huge long term damage for such a measly quick gain.

When racing is on it’s arse, this might the bullet to put it out it’s misery.

Horse racing can do as many protests in Westminster as they would like, when you have the chancellor and people like Gordon Brown backing this IPPR (Institute for Public Policy Research) report in order to help raise money to lift children out of poverty, what chance do we really have? The future of our sport is as unstable as Maxwell on a novice chaser and it has been for a very long time. Animal Rising may have attracted some public noise in the media when their stunts were rife, but they never really hurt our finances. This does, and it does in a bad way.

Well done to all those who voted Labour btw. Pathetic.

RISK ON

14.37 LUNAR ORBIT

Bred to be a jumper versus flat castoffs and Greatrex has a good record at Sedgefield in these types of races. 5/1 win a guessing half bet against the heavy odds on shot repping the James Owen yard.

15.30 QUEST FOR FUN

Looks very well handicapped on soft ground. The right fave at 5/2 and is a bet.

16.22 BLUE COURVOISIER

We backed him on debut, we’re following him again. It was a good speed figure despite the race falling apart and he is Cox’s best 2yo. Taking on the odds on fave. 13/8.

Beer money on the above - 54/1 treble.

PLEASE SUPPORT THE NEWSLETTER BY SUBSCRIBING TO THE PREMIUM EDITION BELOW:

Become a paying subscriber to get access to all of our pedigree analysis, big race previews inc. bumper previews, standout stats and best bets over the coming NH season!

Already a paying subscriber? Sign In.