Equinties - arc shake-up

Gm Equinauts

Thoughts with Trevor Whelan and Jim Crowley who each suffered broken legs yesterday as their mounts TIGER BAY and ALMERAQ brought each other down.

Apparently Jim has broken both legs! We’re also hearing ALMERAQ is fine. It’s such a shame he went down because as hot fave for that race yesterday, Shaggas’ next target was a Group 1.

Let’s see him back on track soon.

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUND UP

FASTNET ROCK DIES

He had the head only a mother could love, but boy was he some stallion. Champion sire, Champion broodmare sire, he has left an indelible mark on the thoroughbred industry globally.

MERHANT NAVY is coming through as his heir.

RIP FASTNET ROCK.

ARC SHAKE-UP

What a weekend to be the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe ante-post market, ay! Going into Saturday, KALPANA was the ante-post favourite, with WHIRL and MINNIE HAUK snapping close at her heels. AVENTURE and BYZANTINE DREAM were much bigger prices, but now, that has changed.

So, let’s start with KALPANA. Her loss in the Group 3 September Stakes was, based on her odds-on price, a bit of a surprise, but when you peel back the curtain, it starts to get less shocking.

Obviously, a horse of her apparent ability should have won, but it’s very notable how much Andrew Balding had left off her ahead of this weekend.

Furthermore, Marco Botti said that fitness wouldn’t be the thing that got GIAVLLOTTO beat earlier in the week, and the Juddmonte-owned filly was pushed across the track by the eventual winner. Those are three very reasonable excuses as to why she lost on Saturday. So, if you have been a fan of KALPANA for the Arc, there’s no need to rip up the docket just yet, and if you’re not on yet, 14/1 does look interesting.

Next.

BYZANTINE DREAM added his name to the list of Japanese Arc contenders this year with an impressive success in the Group 2 Prix Foy.

He may have been 11/1 for yesterday’s contest, and he may also have been 50/1 for the Arc at the start of this weekend, but there was no fluke in his performance.
LOS ANGELES, a horse who probably won’t be winning an Arc based on yesterday, had every right to be successful at Longchamp on Sunday when he hit the front 400m to go, but he couldn’t sustain the challenge. He was a bit disappointing. SOSIE also came there with a run, but he couldn’t get the job done, and ALMAQAM just didn’t have enough in the tank.

BYZANTINE DREAM made them all look like beatable horses, and considering two of them are very accomplished Group 1 animals (and the other, ALMAQAM, beat OMBUDSMAN at in the Brigadier Gerard), that’s a decent feat.

Furthermore, his trainer, Tomoyasu Sakaguchi, thinks he will improve for the run, as he said: "We've left plenty to work on as today was only his prep race.

"I think the state of the ground is something we'll have to think about. There's definitely a question mark, but the priority is to prepare the horse well between now and the Arc and we'll worry about the ground nearer the time."

Japan’s record in the Arc is bad, but with BYZANTINE EMPIRE, ALOHI ALII, and CROIX DU NORD, they have a great chance this year, especially in a Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe renewal that isn’t vintage. So, that’s Japan dealt with, let’s now talk about the final race that caused Arc market changes.

We’re, of course, referring to the Group 1 Prix Veimeille. WHIRL went off 1/2, and with KALPANA opening the door one day previously, a win yesterday would have solidified her position as the one to beat this year.

Unfortunately, she finished last of six, which is certainly not what the doctor ordered. Firstly, people were giving Wayne Lordan a bit of abuse for his ride on WHIRL. While the presence of Ryan Moore was notable, it wasn’t exactly a bad ride. She won the Nassau from the front, and she pretty much did the same in the Pretty Polly. She tried to do something very similar in the Vermeille, and if you stop the race with 500m to go, it does look like she has a proper chance.

She faded pretty badly, so maybe something was amiss, because that’s not the WHIRL who won at Goodwood. Her Arc credentials now hang massively in the balance, and while AVENTURE should be given plenty of plaudits for her success, the slight underperformance from Aidan O’Brien’s filly does tarnish the victory a little bit.

Considering this, would you be a backer or layer at 9/2 for AVENTURE in the Arc? It’s probably too wide-open to lock up money in a 9/2 shot at this stage, especially when you consider all the horses we mentioned above. And, in between all of these horses running this weekend, the one who has come in for a bit more money is MINNIE HAUK, and all she has done in the last 72 hours is sit in her box! The great game.
She leads the way at 4/1, with AVENTURE at 9/2, BYZANTINE DREAM, CROIX DU NORD and SOSIE at 12/1, KALPANA at 14/1, and GEZORA (an eye-catcher behind AVENTURE) at 20/1.

This year’s Arc is the case of ‘take your pick’ at this stage, and that’s not a bad thing.
The race will always attract varying opinions about certain horses, but we imagine this year will be extra spicy. There are reasons to like horses, and there are reasons to really hate others. Wonderful.

THOSE SPRINTERS

These Group 1 sprints in the UK have been a minefield for punters, and sticking to form, we have a new Group 1 sprint winner to talk about, as BIG MOJO won Saturday’s Sprint Cup.

Why is this a nice result? Well, BIG MOJO has always been in and around these kinds of races in his relatively short career, but up until this weekend, the best race he had won was a Group 3. His July Cup effort promised plenty, but he needed to show that on the track. On Saturday, he did just that. Secondly, he gave Mick Appleby his first domestic Group 1, only a few seasons after BIG EVS won at the Breeders’ Cup. For a man who was best known for tearing up Wolverhampton Racecourse alongside Tony Carroll, the last few years have been a rapid rise in fortune for Langham Racing Stables.

Bravo, Mick and BIG MOJO. Great result.

Away from the pleasantries of winning a contest like this, there is something to learn for the remainder of the season.

One would imagine that a fair few of the Sprint Cup field will head to the Champions Sprint on British Champions Day. The race has been mentioned for BIG EVS (alongside the Prix de l’Abbaye), and Jerome Reynier, trainer of LAZZAT, thinks this weekend’s test was a bit too sharp for his horse. He will also head to Ascot.

There are also the likes of FLORA OF BERMUDA and KIND OF BLUE, who will likely head to Ascot in October. After all, they were first and third in the race last year, so it makes total sense to try again. One can also imagine INISHERIN, TIME FOR SANDLES, and NO HALF MEASURES heading towards Berkshire later this season.

Why is this important? Well, and this isn’t shocking news, but don’t be surprised to see a complete reversal in form come Ascot. The Sprint Cup and Champions Sprint are two very different tests, and that six-furlong course at Ascot on potentially softer ground is a gruelling challenge. A few of those late closers, like FLORA OF BERMUDA and KIND OF BLUE, could really appreciate the Champions Sprint, while BIG MOJO does look a bit more adapted to the speedier Prix de l’Abbaye.

This sprinting division’s form is not set in stone this season. A bit of forgiveness, or a few changes in race conditions, will see other horses come out on top. Could we have another fresh face landing a Group 1 this year? Most probably.

WEEKEND EYE-CATCHERS

STRESSFREE – SATURDAY 15.00 HAYDOCK

STRESSFREE has some great form in the book, and there are races to be won with him this/next season. He was fourth in the Ebor to ETHICAL DIAMOND (great form), and he ran on through the line in Saturday’s Old Borough Cup. He’s rated 102 now, which is still very workable in handicaps going forward, but even something like the Group 3 St Simon Stakes at Newbury could work. If not, the November Handicap at Donny next month, or he could be turned around for the Autumn Cup at Newbury later this month.
Either way, he’s a nice, honest horse.

TIME FOR SANDLES – SATURDAY 15.35 HAYDOCK

We’re going to the Sprint Cup for an eye-catcher, and TIME FOR SANDLES is the one for us. Yes, KIND OF BLUE and FLORA OF BERMUDA will be hard to ignore come Ascot, but all of the front four had a golden highway up the near side rail. TIME FOR SANDLES cut out her own running from box two on the far side, and she ran a bit of a stormer. Track position caught up to her late, but with a kinder draw at Ascot, she can really build on this. She was second in the Commonwealth Cup earlier this season, after all, so the Champions Sprint looks obvious.

SECRET HISTORY - SUNDAY 14.30 YORK

Just watch her run, she could have bolted up without the big boy bully sandwich. Next time.

RISK ON

Unsure on the bets yet, but we’re excited for tomorrow already. If we play today, we’ll post it on X.

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