Equinties - Arc forecast

Author

BGP Capital
October 01, 2024

Equinties

Gm Equinauts

Arc weekend is coming and 18 are set to line up for a belter. But what’s the weather doing?

France is experiencing very different weather to the UK right now…

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

ARC GROUND

The season-defining race is nearly upon us.

Yes, that’s right, the 2024 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe is less than a week away.

With it being a high-profile contest outside of the UK, accurate information can be quite hard to decipher. After all, the official going reading in France is different to the one that TurfTrax gives us.

Remember last year? The Racing Post described the ground as officially good to soft when it was actually one of the quickest Arcs we’ve had in recent memory.

So, let’s start with the ground currently and what the weather is set to be over the next week.

Currently, TurfTrax have the ground officially good to soft, soft in places as the track has received 40mm of rain since September 15th.

France Galop is predicting that the ground will ride with a mixture of soft and good to soft on the weekend, though they are saving an eight-metre strip of fresh ground for racing on Sunday.

Furthermore, only scattered showers are predicted on Wednesday. The rest of the week is fairly dry with a nice breeze. Heavy rain is predicted for next Monday, so at the moment, the course should be fine, but if that moves up in the timescale by a day, the fixture could be impacted.

Therefore, Arc weekend won’t be as quick as last year, but it’s equally not predicted to be as heavy as ALPINISTA’s year:

Could that affect the participation of any of the 18 confirmations? Probably not! But we do know it will certainly affect our enthusiasm for the race as horse on good ground is a total mine field - absolutely no betting edge.

Aidan O’Brien floated the idea of running AUGUSTE RODIN in the race if ground conditions came his way.

With conditions unlikely to be no worse than than good to soft, there is a possibility of a run however if Aidan deems the ground a bit slow, he will be put away and saved.

SHIN EMPEROR is the big Japanese hope, and while he hasn’t run on soft before, we have explained before that with his pedigree (SIYOUNI out of the GALILEO mare STARLET’S SISTER), he has a good chance of acting on it. After all, he is a full brother to the 2020 winner SOTTSASS who won his Arc on heavy as well as the Ganay on good to soft and winning twice on soft.

Roll on the weekend – the next few days will be exciting.

NEW NASHWA DECISION

A few weeks ago, we said that NASHWA was back and connections had three races in mind for her. L’Opera, Sun Chariot, and Champions Day.

Well, much like Fabrizio Romano in the football world – NASHWA to going to the Sun Chariot. Here we go.

The 2022 Prix de Diane winner will join stablemate INSPIRAL in the Group 1 at Newmarket this weekend, a race that will be her first start for 189 days.

Although this is exciting, we imagine that she will need the run. She finished fourth of six in the Group 2 Prix Corrida after a 204-day break before finishing second in the Group 3 Hoppings Fillies’ Stakes nto and then winning the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes.

So, hypothetically, the race this weekend could be perfect for stablemate INSPIRAL and then NASHWA could be put spot-on for Champions Day.

Teddy Grimthorpe, racing manager for the owner Imad Alsagar, said: "It's great to have her back and she'll be fresh for the autumn contests. Everyone likes to see these good horses coming back and proving themselves again and again.

"She's come through all of her preliminary work well and has come on and improved each time she worked. The nice racecourse work last week under Hollie brought her on. She hasn't run since Dubai at the end of March this year, so it's likely she might need the race still."

With both of these horses set for Newmarket on the weekend, this leaves FRIENDLY SOUL to be the John & Thady representative in the Prix de l’Opera, a race she is 8/1 for.

Her form when beating KALPANA in the Listed Pretty Polly Stakes at Newmarket earlier this season looks really good, and she has not yet reached her ceiling.

CRITERION CHANGE

Away from ‘horse to race’ news, it’s worth highlighting the state that the Jockey Club is in.

That may seem steep, but it’s notable to see that the Jockey Club has sold its Criterion Stakes Day fixture at Newmarket to York Racecourse for 2025.

This comes after the decision the Jockey Club took to can five Premier meetings and £1.5 million in prize money earlier this year and they have been trying to get money in any way they can, notably through its drink prices.

So, is the Jockey Club heading down a bad spiral right now? The organisation is huge to British racing and as much as the BHA are meant to have a controlling hand over British racing, the Jockey Club goes about its business how it sees fit.

Nevin Truesdale made the announcement to step down as CEO in June 2024 and a few other notable figures, ie Julie Harrington, are following a similar pattern.

Are events like the Jockey Club selling the Criterion Stakes Day warning signs of what is going to come further down the road regarding finances in this sport? It’s hard to say with certainty, but the answer is most likely yes.

Maybe they need to stop taking money off punters and starting upping the tax income from the horrible bookmakers.. just a thought!

RISK ON

We’ve been hitting the big prices this week but today is all about the shorties:

19.00 MINNIE WILDES

Liked at home and can grow into a 100 horse. She is expected to win with Varian’s well bred gelding half to SAKHEER, SECOND NAME, expected to go close in behind. 9/4 straight forecast

FAVES FOUR FOLD:

13.40 GRACIOUS LEADER

15.15 HOPEWELL ROCK

15.50 SAYTARR

19.00 MINNIE WILDES

Pays 16/1.

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