Equinties - arc bound

Gm Equinauts

TRUE LOVE absolutely hosed up on Saturday. The result of the weekend.

Nope, not because we backed her.

But because it means she won’t be going to the Lowther.

Is ROYAL FIXATION still odds against!?

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUND UP

TAKE HIM ANYWHERE

In horse racing, fans often have the propensity to be negative about anything and every thing!

This weekend, the Group 1 Irish Oaks was a bit of a joke. The ‘Oaks’ scene has never looked that brilliant this season, and we saw the bottom end of it on Saturday with MINNIE HAUK going off 2/11 to win the second-last Irish Classic of the season.

We’ll talk more about the race in our next session, but yes, this was bad.

Still, that shouldn’t take away from the rest of the weekend, because it was actually quite interesting, and we have a combination of the French and Irish action with a little bit of Eve sprinkled on top, to thank for that

The likes of ARIZONA BLAZE, TRUE LOVE, ANTHELIA, DIEGO VELAZQUEZ, GREEN SENSE, and QUDDWAH all put in top efforts that will affect the rest of the season.
The one we want to talk about in-depth is AL RIFFA in the Curragh Cup, because he is the type of horse that has always been there without winning anything “big”.

As a two-year-old, AL RIFFA won the Group 1 Vincent O’Brien National Stakes, but it wasn’t an amazing renewal. As a three-year-old, he chased home ACE IMPACT before having a setback. As a four-year-old, he chased home CITY OF TROY in the Eclipse before winning a Group 1 in Germany and then bombing out in the Arc. Finally, this year, he’s finished third in the Neom Turf Cup, fourth in the Group 1 Prix Ganay, and second in the Group 2 Hardwicke Stakes.

Bar the Arc, that’s actually a very consistent record that includes two Group 1s and form lines with ACE IMPACT, CITY OF TROY, SHIN EMPEROR, SOSIE, SEE THE FIRE, and SPIRIT DANCER.

And yet, despite his rating of 118, he is still probably an underrated horse, even with a great record and some top targets for the future. Furthermore, he’s kept improving, and he’s at his peak now, so it was nice to see him obliterate his rivals in the Group 2 Curragh Cup on Saturday.

Interestingly, what can be a blessing and a curse with these Joseph O’Brien horses is his race planner, Kevin Blake. He is a brilliant person to have in the industry, but naturally, he can get carried away when talking about some of O’Brien’s top horses.

Sometimes he gets it right, notably STATE OF REST in the 2022 Prince Of Wales’s Stakes, abut often he can get it all very wrong. AL RIFFA in the Arc last season springs to mind.

But, he is quite transparent on social media, and having passed his maiden 1m6f outing with flying colours on Saturday, it seems like the team have some top staying races in mind for the WOOTTON BASSETT entire. In the Racing Post, Blake said:  "He's got a lot of class and he was last to first in a National Stakes here. No one ever felt that he needed that trip but it made sense. He was very relaxed and Dylan said he was a very easy ride over that trip.

"I'd say it's most likely that he'll go straight to the Irish St Leger from here. There is a possibility of the Pries Von Berlin he won last year but I'd say it’s more likely he'll go straight to the Irish Leger. The Melbourne Cup is in the mind thereafter. We all know what comes with that but it's what we'd like to do, if we're allowed."

Our overriding thoughts on AL RIFFA are positive ones. For all the reasons we have mentioned, there’s plenty to like about the horse, and now having won over 1m6f, he has opened himself up to loads more options.

If he stayed in training next year, races like the Lonsdale Cup, Yorkshire Cup, and Goodwood Cup could be in his locker, though the latter two are over two furlongs further, the same trip as the Melbourne Cup. As he’s got older, he has matured really nicely, and he isn’t showing signs of letting up. His win on Saturday also pays a handsome form boost to REBEL’S ROMANCE ahead of the King George, a race that won’t have Ralph Beckett’s AMILOC in.

 
ARC BOUND?

How many Arc horses does Aidan O’Brien have this season? It almost feels like anytime any of his horses wins a Group 1 over 1m4f, he instantly thinks of Longchamp.

WHIRL, JAN BRUGHEL, LOS ANGELES, LAMBOURN, TRINITY COLLEGE, and CAMILLE PISSARRO could all feasibly be Arc horses, and he added one more to that list on Saturday with MINNIE HAUK.

There are two main questions to ask after the Irish Oaks. What would happen if WHIRL and MINNIE HAUK met again, and is she an Arc horse?

Starting with the opening question, we think it would be really tight. Plenty of people thought WHIRL was given an ‘easy’ time at Epsom in the Oaks, and that’s why if Wayne Lordan really wanted to, he could have got WHIRL up on the line.

We’re not sure about that - we think she didn’t like the ground.

WHIRL has now gone on to win the Pretty Polly, beating KALPANA as well, and she is now off to the Group 1 Nassau Stakes.

There’s probably only one time when these two could meet again, and that could be in the Arc. You’d have to say that Ryan Moore would find it hard to get off MINNIE HAUK, but we think WHIRL might just be better on the quicker ground.

Secondly, what about the performance this weekend? The positive is that both her and WEMIGHTAKEDLONGWAY pulled away from the third and fourth, so they are clearly nice horses. But, as we have already said, the race wasn’t good, so they were well within their right to do that, and the way MINNIE HAUK looked with two furlongs to go wouldn’t inspire confidence.

We’re not quite sold on her Arc credentials right now, but there is also a way Ballydoyle could get the most out of both WHIRL and MINNIE HAUK when it comes to France.

The latter clearly has some engine to always find over 1m4f, while the former could just be a touch more talented.

Send MINNIE HAUK to the Arc to see if she can pick up the pieces, and bring WHIRL back to 1m2f for the Prix de l’Opera. She won over that trip, and she’s a winner over a mile, so it would make sense.

Anyway, what did Aidan O’Brien have to say? He said: "Ryan was very happy and she's one of those fillies that you're probably never going to see the best of her until the tempo is very strong. When you see her work, she has a very high cruise and until the pace is really on, she doesn't really open up into that cruise. She's never won by very far, it was the same at Chester and Epsom.

"If she was going down the Arc trial route, she'd have to have a couple of easy weeks and obviously if she was going to York then she wouldn't have those couple easy weeks. I'd imagine we'd have a fair idea in the next week. Looking at her, she probably would love York."

Best of luck to them if they are campaigning her as an Arc filly. They are never usually that far wrong! She just has to prove it s little bit more for us.

WEEKEND EYE-CATCHERS

FORT VEGA - SATURDAY 14.00 CURRAGH

You have to feel a little bit for the connections of FORT VEGA. They must have thought he was the winner of the Scurry with half-a-furlong to go, but a seriously well-handicapped GO ATHLETICO collared him on the line.
Let’s not forget that GO ATHLETICO was a Grouo horse at one stage, and his recent poor efforts allowed him to run off 87 on Saturday. FORT VEGA may be a five-year-old, but he is relatively lightly-raced, and he can win some nice handicaps going forward.

HAVANA HURRICANE - SATURDAY 15.30 NEWBURY

Yes, we’re not giving you a horse that is off the radar. He did bolt up on debut and he did win at Royal Ascot, yes, but it’s hard not to be impressed by what HAVANA HURRICANE did in the Super Sprint.

Go watch the race back. The jockey did every thing wrong yet every on still thought he got it - even the commentator even thought he had stolen the race, right up until the slow motion replay.

We were at Newbury on Saturday and HAVANA HURRICANE was absolutely STAND OUT in the parade ring. No question about it. He’s beautifully put together, has good size, plenty of speed, and Eve Johnson Houghton thinks he can be a nice older sprinter.

 GOUKEN - SATURDAY 16.45 NEWBURY

Looked a monster in the parade ring and ran a promising debut. Perhaps one to follow?

TWEETS OF THE WEEKEND 

STATS OF THE DAY

We’ve been travelling so no time to research the stats today. To the eye, the standout stats would point towards Moffatt at Cartmel.

RISK ON

We’re going for a double at Windsor today, one from our favourite punting yard and another you’ll recognise…

18.10 REIMAGINED

She’s nice annd given intro on debut. Interestingly her breeders prepped her for the breeze ups but decided to keep her. That’s bullish and she’ll take some stopping today if Bishop doesn’t mess it up. We’ve taken 7’s down to 9/2, a good bet now at 4’s. Should go off strong fave. This isn’t the yard max as that horse is coming, but this is a strong ew.

19.40 PRINCESS RASCAL

We backed her last time out. The yard think she’s Listed class at the very least so this race should be easy for her. 11/4 a bet.

Singles, ew double and ew treble with ROYAL FIXATION in the Lowther. Will add WICKET KEEPER in too for the four fold multi’s - he’s a horse we all have an interest in and only has Shaggas’ to beat.

Shaggas’ is a slow mud lark, the ex-Eve inmate WICKET KEEPER should have more gears than him. We hope!