Equinties - ante-post smoke

Gm Equinauts

We’re at Newbury today to see our man Mad Maxwell. We’re just talking about starting a Maxwell fan club actually. Stay tuned.

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

MONEY SAYS NO

The news hundreds of thousands of people didn’t want to hear came through yesterday as Nicky Henderson said CONSTITUTION HILL’s lab results had come back. 

The boss of Seven Barrows said there is a “significant degree of inflammation” in his Champion Hurdle horse and they are set to repeat the test on Monday to see what the results say then.

He hasn’t ruled him out just yet (read into that what you will) but it seems as if this news is not what Hendo wanted to hear and as a result the exchange started shouting.

The sell off is suggesting that £358k on the Freak is gone and there must be hundreds of thousands of ante-post acca’s at risk of going up in flames too with many punters simply adding him into every bet at leverage for bigger priced fancies.

Our view is that there is a big lesson to be learned from this. Even if he does make it, we imagine not many punters will owing to the heart attack recent events have caused. But we’re just not that into that sort of speculative betting.

This newsletter is slightly flawed in the sense that we have to get it out at a reasonable time for Equinaut readers to digest, where really, most bets should be played on the day a few minutes ahead of the race when the market is favouring your theory. Betting months ahead when there are so many doubts is a loss leader. Trainers intentions, horses health and soundness and more crucially, the weather will have huge influence on the final line up, let alone the outcome of the race! As case in point being when strong fave BMG was pulled late from the Brown Advisory in ‘22 - if you backed him ante-post - you’re then chasing that stake. We waited a few minutes before the race and pulled the trigger to fire a big bullet at L’HOMME PRESSE. 9/4 banker landed.

The biggest argument for ante-post acca betting is that it’s fun and highly speculative with huge rewards. That’s a huge argument. But you have to remember they are priced accordingly, or certainly used to be anyway (some bookies now don’t price them fairly), because they have a very, very small chance of landing.

The best thing you can do when betting ante-post acca’s is count it as a loss early, kiss the money good bye and come to terms with it because then if it wins it’s a huge bonus.

Ante-post singles using information can be a brave and smart move though. We have one ready to bet and will be released in tomorrow edition.

PREVIEW AND REPEAT

Like them or loathe them, the Cheltenham previews are rife at the moment and they will continue to be prominent up until the Supreme kicks off in 12 days’ time.

A few have already been and gone, we don’t take much notice of them but our resident Intern does, so here are the big shouts that have already been made.

The first comes from the Racehour Preview, one of the more high-profile events, and David Mullins believes MEETINGOFTHEWATERS could be a Gold Cup horse next year. 

Big claims for a horse who is 17lbs higher than his Paddy Power Chase success, though he is with some clever connections. 

Elsewhere, who knows Paddy Merrigan? No we don’t either. Well, apparently after last year’s rant on THE REAL WHACKER, he was certainly a popular man at this preview night. 

Yes, the former jockey got it (just) right last year and he has put forward his Irish certainty for the handicaps this year with LARK IN THE MORNIN in the Boodles. 

And as for the Ryanair, there seems to be whispers floating about that ENVOI ALLEN is in top, top order at home. The RacingBlogger saw him yesterday and said he was the best looking horse he’d seen and Robbie Power thinks he is the one to be with. 

Get ready, they’ll be more to come…

BOOMING BAILEY

If there is one trainer who is certain to either be in terrible form or red hot, smoking form - it’s Kim Bailey. There never seems to be an in between with this guy. 

Even though he hasn’t had a winner for a while, the Gloucestershire-based trainer oboes how to win at the Festival, after all, he has won the Champion Hurdle and Gold Cup. This year, he could only have two runners at Cheltenham, though both of them are set to run in the same race as both CHIANTI CLASSICO and TRELAWNE are set to run in the Ultima and both have good chances. 

Although CHIANTI CLASSICO is the shortest-priced runner, it’s interesting to see how bullish Bailey is on his other runner, TRELAWNE, who has had a good season to date. 

In fairness to Bailey, the eight-year-old has a nice unexposed profile as he has yet to run over three miles as a chaser, yet he won over the distance as a handicap hurdler and he even beat ANGLERS CRAG, the 2024 Eider Chase winner, by 12 lengths in a 2m6f handicap hurdle while giving eight pounds away. His form with GINNY’S DESTINY and GREY DAWNING from this season looks good and he also smashed THE KING OF RYHOPE in the Grade 2 Towton Novices’ Chase who has since ran a cracker in the Grade 2 Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase. If you are a CHIANTI CLASSICO fan, maybe it’s worth looking at his stablemate?

NEWBURY PREVIEW

13.50 CLASS 4 CONDITIONAL JOCKEYS HANDICAP HURDLE

JJ heads the market here with SOLDIEROFTHESTORM. The yard won this race in ‘19 and ‘20 and importantly didn’t have runners entered the last three years so they clearly target the race. This lad bolted up lto albeit in a weak race but he couldn’t have done it any easier. JJ trained the full sister to knows the family well, she won on soft so the ground should be fine today. Handicap plot? Potentially. We think he could have won his last race by another 10 lengths making him about 10lbs well in.

THUNDERCLAP is a soft ground lover but his mark is high. Place chances for Hughie at his local track.

Derham’s IL VA DE SOI was punted last time but was a no show. Was that a gamble gone astray? If so, he was obviously showing something so could prove a danger today in ground his pedigree will appreciate.

At a massive price, SIZING POTTSIE is well handicapped. He has been around a bit so will appreciate the slower conditions today.

Verdict: We think JJ has SOLDIEROFTHESTOM handicapped and targeted to win this. At 4’s could be a dirty ew, perhaps it needs another similar price to make an interesting ew double.

14.25 JUVERNILE HURDLE

LE FAUVEA is short in the market at 7/4 for the Skelton yard. On ratings, his Aintree form is good but if you watch the race back he did stop to a crawl - perhaps he needs faster ground?

SWIFT HAWK on the other hand won a lot more easily than the form suggests but he’s another who would probably prefer top of the ground, especially given his dam side.

YELLOW STAR turned over a heavy odds on shot in BE AWARE lto. Perhaps lucky to win given Harry Skelton gave BE AWARE a bit of a stinker but that form in time should prove useful. His pedigree will LOVE the ground today. He’s not the biggest though - hard to know if he’s going to get found out for stride in the long straight.

ITHACA’S ARROW gave us a heart attack last time when nearly beating our banker in ROYAL WAY. Place chances as he’ll go in mud but he might just find a few too good today.

The other two shouldn’t be winning this.

Verdict: If his last race hasn’t taken too much out of him then YELLOW STAR looks the bet at 4’s.

15.00 CLASS 3 NOVICE’S HANDICAP CHASE

ISSAR D’AIRY’s withdrawal means this race is now wide open and heading the market is Nicholls’ IOUPY COLLONGES. Pulled up lto he is hard to judge. Well bred though and won’t mind the mud.

PASSING WELL is another who needs to leave a recent poor performance behind. Has ability on old Newbury form and probably makes him the one to beat.

MARTATOR goes for Venetia. People think the yard are in bad form, we think it’s by design. The horses she needs to handicap get handicapped and the ones who she want’s to win…are winning. She knows what shes doing. This lad has been banging on the door this season and has a huge chance.

BALLYCAMUS is the last horse in this four runner field. Probably a grade too high for him?

Verdict: A non betting heat for us but we’ll hang out hat on Venetia’s MARTATOR at a drifting 5/2.

15.35 CLASS 3 NOVICE’S HURDLE

Oh boy. Here we go… Our man Mad Maxwell is heading the market on his expensive recruit BALLYBENTRAGH. He is short at 11/10 (was odds on) and you’d probably want 4’s about Maxwell just to stay on but he’s priced for a reason - he’s on by far the best horse in the race and should win this!

Verdict: Maxwell to blow the roof off Newbury. We’re there - we’ll be cheering him home.

16.10 CLASS 3 HANDICAP CHASE

I’D LIKE TO KNOW has been shoved from 2’s into odds on here, people following the form line with ISSAR D’AIRY.

The sell off is DEMNAT for Venetia. He is a full brother to the legend SCEAU ROYAL. His pedigree stats dam side suggest he has no chance in today’s ground but if he’s anything like his brother, then he should go in it and prove the best horse. Our worry with this horse is whether he will bounce after his win after such a long lay off?

KANSAS CITY STAR is a point winner and should have a good future over fences now with Derham. He shouldn’t mind the ground but probably does have a little to find on ratings. You’d want bigger than the 4’s available.

REAL STONE is a huge price at 12’s - does this mean he’s getting handicapped? If he’s not we have him down as a big chance on best form. Ground in his favour too. Like a lotof horses today, needs to leave lesser efforts behind but again, have those performances been by design?

Another big price is FAST BUCK. He’s a slop lover and things didn’t go his way at Sandown. Whether he’s up to winning today (tougher race than the one he won at Wincanton) we’re not sure.

Verdict: we shan’t take on the money for Gordons fave but we’ll be keeping a close eye on DEMNAT who, if anything like his brother, could be special. No bet.

16.45. CLASS 3 HANDICAP HURDLE

Now this market has caused a stir… MAN AT WORK has been in our tracker for the last few years and has stayed there because has hasn’t been seen at all! He’s been off the track for 455 day and has been punted to fave here. WE know connections like a Newbury win, their filly PANIC ATTACK kicked off the first leg of our famous BMG treble (PANIC ATTACK, ANNIE MAC and BMG) on Challow day. What a day that was.

The money says MAN AT WORK is BACK! But could we back him? He’s a good horse but not today. Not in this ground unfortunately. He’ll go in it but surely he’ll get found out for race fitness?

HERMINO AA is a proper horse who’ll go in the ground and his back form should make him favourite - hence the money for Pipes is so significant.

SUPER SURVIVOR has sold off from 8’s out to 20’s - is this a confidence booster back over hurdles having flopped over fences?

We shan’t really waste time talking about the others because it wouldn’t be good practice to bet in this race with such an unknown being gambled in the market.

Verdict: All eyes on huge unknown MAN AT WORK. And eyes only. If he gets clipped any shorter then this really will be the gamble of the day.

RISK ON

Three bets beaten yesterday, the Pauling double looking good until it turned out FOURTOWNS can’t jump a hurdle. He is a winner in waiting with more schooling. One to track.

We’re punting at Newbury today and it’ll be fun tokens only without any real standout bets and the main fancies being:

13.50 SOLDIEROFTHESTORM EW

14.25 YELLOW STAR WIN

15.35 BALLYBENTRAGH WIN