Equinties - American in Cheltenham

Author

BGP Capital
March 08, 2024

Equinties

Gm Equinauts

 

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

CERTAINTY FOR NOW 

After months, literally months, of speculation, Willie Mullins finally confirmed the Cheltenham Festival plans for his top novice hurdlers yesterday, including BALLYBURN…almost as if he read our rant in yesterdays newsletter. 

The exchanges had been painting a picture since Monday, but the master of Closutton confirmed that BALLYBURN will indeed head to the Gallagher Novices’ Hurdle (the old Ballymore) while both MYSTICAL POWER and TULLYHILL will go to the Supreme. 

He’d probably have a strong chance to win both races, but this does make sense for BALLYBURN. By FLEMENSFIRTH out of an OLD VIC mare, his breeding suggests he’ll be better the further he goes and he bolted up over 2m4f two starts ago in a maiden hurdle at Leopardstown.

Reading between the lines, does this mean that Willie has no faith in his original Gallagher team or does he think either TULLYHILL or MYSTICAL POWER has a strong chance in the Supreme and fancies bagging both pots. 

Considering Danny Mullins has always thought MYSTICAL POWER was the speed horse of the novice hurdlers, maybe it’s the latter. 

AMERICAN IN CHELTENHAM

AMERICAN MIKE as been a tough horse to follow for his fans over the last few years, but his success in the Ten Up lto provided a crumb of comfort. 

He beat a nice field over three miles that day, so you can imagine that Elliott was ruing the fact he hadn’t entered him for the Brown Advisory at Cheltenham. Well, that changed yesterday as he was supplemented for the Grade 1 novice chase over three miles, bringing the confirmations up to 11. 

Many, including Elliott, had highlighted the Irish Grand National as a potential race for him, but he wasn’t entered yesterday in preference for a tilt at Cheltenham. 

He beat FACT TO FILE at the start of the season and he is a lovely jumper of a fence. Could you see him hitting the frame in a good renewal of the Brown Advisory?

HELPING HARRY

Evan Williams only has one strong chance at this year’s Cheltenham Festival, but it’s a good one as LIBBERTY HUNTER is set to run in the Grand Annual. 

Having beaten MATATA in a handicap at Cheltenham on his last start, the form of that race received a boost as the runner-up finished second to JPR ONE in the Grade 1 Lightening Novices’ Chase at Lingfield in January. 

Furthermore, his chances in this year’s Grand Annual received another helping hand yesterday as it was confirmed that Harry Cobden would ride him in place of the injured Adam Wedge. What a result!

On the chances of LIBBERTY HUNTER, Williams said: “Everything has gone well with Libberty Hunter’s preparation and we’d like it to stay on the damp side for him. It’s always a positive when you have form around Cheltenham although going to the festival will be a whole new ball game.

“It’s a completely different challenge as the best head there in March, so it will be a very tough assignment but he deserves to go there and he’s a horse I like. He’s done very little wrong.”

One for Wales in the handicaps that could hit the frame!

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RISK ON

A quiet time this week as it’s all been pretty low grade stuff and there is no pride in poverty.

Next week, our focus is obviously Cheltenham and we will be publishing full previews each day, however, as is always the case, there will be some good bets away from Prestbury Park too.

There are some nice bets tomorrow with Saturday’s racing being the best on offer - it’s always like this in the run up to Cheltenham.

Patience pays.

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