Equinties - all wrong

Gm Equinauts

A legend of game died today:

RIP Edward O’Grady.

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

ALL WRONG

For a race that had just five runners and no pesky three-year-olds to worry about, the Group 1 King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes created a lot to talk about. Shall we start with Ballydoyle?

For those who backed JAN BRUEGHEL, you can see why you’d be aggravated at the performance. You’d have thought that after the disaster of the Prince Of Wales’s that Ballydoyle wouldn’t try to be too smart with their tactics, but they unfortunately got it wrong, again.

It’s like Pep Guardiola not starting Rodri in the 2021 Champions League Final. Madness.

We all imagined that CONTINUOUS would set a nice tempo in front, allowing JAN BRUEGHEL to sit just off him and roll nicely into the race around the bend. Instead, the Coronation Cup winner made his own way at a fairly steady tempo, turning the race into a sprint in the final two furlongs.

Once the 1m4f contest transformed into a dash, JAN BRUEGHEL’s chances of winning soon diminished.

There is another question to ask about JAN BRUEGHEL. Did he actually run to form?

There are a few things to consider before making a judgment. Firstly, the aforementioned race tactics, and secondly, the fact that Aidan O’Brien reached for the first-time cheekpieces for no apparent reason.

O’Brien has failed to have a Group 1 winner with first-time pieces for 16 years, so he doesn’t tend to do it without a slightly negative motive, and that maybe suggests that all wasn’t 100% back home for JAN BRUEGHEL ahead of the King George. That is pure speculation, of course, but he did go off 5/2 having been as short as 7/4 ante-post even though we did get a strong message for him.

So, all in all, he probably did run as good a race as he could on the day. He was only beaten by three-and-three-quarter lengths, after all.

Anyway, away from JAN BRUEGHEL, what about CALANDAGAN and KALPANA, the 1-2?

Francis Graffard and the Aga Khan are probably ruing France Galop’s decision to not allow geldings into the Arc, because that would seem like a perfect race for him.

He travels, he can settle off the pace, he’s ground versatile, and he has a strong finishing effort. The race set up nicely for him on Saturday, but he still had to get past a very game KALPANA, and he did so thanks to a brilliantly-timed ride from Mickael Barzalona.

It looks like a step down in trip to 1m2f could be on the agenda next, as Graffard said: "He's in the Juddmonte International, so why not go there?. I wouldn't mind coming back in trip and then maybe going to Japan at the end of the season, but I have to discuss it with the Aga Khan team and Princess Zahra."

Speaking of the Arc, we now have a new ante-post favourite, and that is KALPANA.

As we said earlier in the week, it’s no secret that a trip to Longchamp in October has been the year-long objective from Juddmonte and Andrew Balding for KALPANA.
After two defeats at 1m2f, we can see why questions about her ability were being raised, but Saturday put plenty of those doubts to bed.

The way she travelled around the bend, her kick away from the field with two furlongs to go, and her determination despite the presence of a closing opponent. It was a sweet run that promised plenty.

It’s all roads to the Arc now, as Balding said: "She hasn't won a race this year so she has no penalty, so going to the September Stakes could be an option. It's on our doorstep and you're guaranteed the surface. She won it last year and it's possible, but if the Prix Vermeille looked a good shot then it's a Group 1 at the end of the day. There's an extra week from that and the Arc this year so anything is possible."

With slightly softer ground at the Arc, is she your idea of the winner? She has to be properly considered.

GOODWOOD CLUES

We love it when horses win on the weekend of a big festival, and connections contemplate whether they can do the double. It’s great, because if they run, connections obviously think they are well-handicapped and ready to win. It adds so much intrigue plus makes thing a little easier.

Well, amazingly, two winners from this weekend that could run again at Glorious Goodwood, and they are worth a mention.

The main one to mention is ELMONJED, as he could have a say on the Steward’ Cup.

A few weeks ago, ALMERAQ won the Ayr Gold Cup Trial, and there was plenty of chat about him for the feature Goodwood sprint handicap. It was fair conversation, but the comments post-race were a bit windy about him turning around again for Goodwood.

As for ELMONJED, for the same connections as ALMERAQ, he could well make the Stewards’ Cup, and it’s a good job, as Shaggas confirmed that ALMERAQ would not make the race.

On ELMONJED, Maureen Haggas said: "Jim said 'run him on Saturday, I would.' We'll see.

"It's a different sort of track but he likes a big field and being covered up and helped through. He's not really happy being on his own in front as long as he was today but he hung on. He'd be better on faster ground too."
Those comments seem a lot more positive about the Stewards’ Cup than the post-race comments for ALMERAQ. Eyes on.

As for another potential Goodwood runner, MEBLESH, a winner at Chester on Saturday, has an entry for the 3YO Kincsem Handicap on the third day of the meeting.
While Richard Hannon didn’t give any quotes about him turning up next week, according to the Racing Post, he is still a possible runner for the contest, even if it’s five days after his Chester win.

He is now 20/1 for the Kincsem Handicap.

PEDIGREE NOTES

And finally, the last week or so gave a nice insight into two sires who are fairly new on the scene.

The first is TOO DARN HOT who, despite his £90,000 stud fee, has only had runners on the track since 2023.

He had a good weekend as EMIT won a Listed race at Gowran Park, FITZELLA won the Group 3 Princess Margaret at Ascot, and TORNADO ALERT won a Group 1 in Germany. Good stuff.

As for the other sire to mention, we’re of course on about STARMAN, the dad of the moment in horse racing. VENETIAN SUN, GREEN SENSE, and LADY IMAN have flown the flag so high this season, so he must be some sire.

He’s already had a Royal Ascot winner with VENETIAN SUN, FLOWEHEAD finished second at Royal Ascot behind TRUE LOVE, and he’s had other winners like LEBRON POWER, STAR MATERIAL, and STAR OF SAPHIRE.

Interestingly, STARMAN never raced as a 2YO himself. He’s tall and big, not small and compact like most good juvenile sires and he is out of a MONTJEU mare whose only win came in a 1m2f class 6 race at Bath.

MONTJEAU won a Listed race over 1m1f as a 2YO in France on heavy ground and against two other rivals. MONTJEU, as we know, was an amazing horse thereafter, a sire of sires, and an excellent broodmare sire. But, generally, he puts plenty of class and stamina into the pedigree.

STARMAN is by DUTCH ART, who was a good juvenile himself. He won the Morny and Middle Park, but DUTCH ART isn’t exactly renowned as a top class sire or sire of sires. He is the broodmare sire of CHALDEAN so that’ll be interesting when he has his first runners. DUTCH ART is by MEDICEAN, who in turn was unraced as a 2YO.

WEEKEND EYE-CATCHERS

CHANTILLY LACE – SATURDAY 14.40 ASCOT

CHANTILLY LACE had to make her own way on the wrong side of the track at Ascot on Saturday. Those two things certainly counted against her, and that contributed to her defeat in the Group 3 Valiant Stakes.
Furthermore, Ralph Beckett really isn’t having a great season right now. He’s had 49 winners from 297 runners at a 16% strike rate. His SR in 2024 and 2023 was 20%, as it was in 2020.

The yard tends to turn things around as we head into the autumn. Beckett has campaigned CHANTILLY LACE aggressively this season, so another Group 3 later in the year could see her back in the winners’ enclosure if the yard is in a bit better form.

HICKORY - SATURDAY 15.35 ASCOT

HICKORY at Ascot is a different animal. After this weekend, HICKORY’s record at Ascot sits at 2-3-12-4-7-1-3, so anytime he heads to the Berkshire-based track, he should be given a second look.

So, why does he go into the eye-catchers section now? Well, much like LA BOTTE at Royal Ascot, he was given a bit of a Jamie Spencer ride. It wasn’t as bad a ride as what Spencer gave to LA BOTTE, but HICKORY was still held up behind rivals, and when he went to make his initial move, he was slightly stopped. If he returns to a big Ascot handicap, maybe even the Balmoral on Champions Day (long-term planning), he could be dangerous.

STATS OF THE DAY

One standout stat today:

Shaggas is 2 from 2 up at Ayr this season - he doesn’t go unless they think they can win. Today he sends Bloom’s horse CROWN OF OAKS to win the 16.05. Shaggas has a near 50% strike rate over the last 10 years when travelling this far too.

RISK ON

The right people are on CROWN OF OAKS today - gelding op and finally the right ground, he should make his handicap mark looks ridiculous. A good bet and double with the Lowther ante-post.

Some faces also are on the Fahey horse in the first at Ayr, FIZZY CRISTAL, but she’s a girl against the boys, so trust as to be taken with this one. Small single to go with the message (against the gut!).

Elsewhere we think our last time out bet winner can win again:

16.55 HINITISA BAY

We backed lto as finally ran on slower ground and today should be even more up his street to prove well handicapped. Short now so lever to use another - there are plenty of shorties who should win today (too short to back) like KEY OF MAGIC and SPECIAL DIVIDEND.

There is one more bet at Windsor (nice price) which we will post later on X.