Equinties - Aintree day 2

Gm Equinauts

No one had their emotions played with more than Ben Pauling yesterday.

One horse, one winner.

No, we’re not describing our betting performance (we bet two yesterday), that was Ben Pauling continuing his insane run of hot form on one the biggest racing days in the NH calendar.

He should have been celebrating the easy bumper victory of DIVA LUNA yesterday but instead would have loaded the box and left Aintree anxiety ridden with unanswered questions afloat in his mind.

Yesterday morning news broke that Paulings big owner, Andrew Megson, was to rip out all 16 of his horses from the yard including their star horse, TELLHERTHENAME.

TELLHERTHENAME is set to go to Ed Dunlop(!!!!!) for a tilt on the Flat, though five of their other horses are heading to Jonjo O’Neill and the other five are off to Fergal O’Brien.

Their reason for the switch? According to Andrew Megson, he believes “a change is best” and that the split from Pauling’s yard is “amicable”. 

Andrew might say it’s ‘amicable’ but the 1 minute phone call Pauling received suggests otherwise.

And to put the good ones with Dunlop. Wowsers. Ed Dunlop is quite clearly unbelievable at leveraging his social circle because he is an extremely the unreliable trainer bordering on useless.

The Megsons obviously have a good relationship with the Dunlops. They had Gr2 May Hill winner POLLY POTT with Harry Dunlop, she was a very nice 2yo. Then Harry Dunlop retired and she went to Ben Pauling to target the 1000 Guineas!

The last week hasn’t been the easiest for Pauling as The Times revealed an article on his poor relationship with Nauton Downs Golf Club and now this this will be a huge hit for the yard - 16 horses gone will very much sting cash flow the next few months.

Hopefully the backing of big owners like Harry Redknapp and the Radfords means the yard will be able to bounce back quickly.

Let’s dive in.

BIG RACE PREVIEW

13.45 GRADE 1 MILDMAY NOVICES’ CHASE

INOTHEWAYURTHINKIN has gone up 13lbs for his win at Cheltenham 29 days ago. He won very well carrying 12 stone and the race certainly didn’t go to plan but the handicapper hasn’t missed putting him up nearly a stone. 

Our Cheltenham winner CHIANTI CLASSICO has been ultra consistent for his connections and comes here off the back of a good win in the Ultima at the festival. For that win he has been put up 11lbs.

IROKO looked very well held in Grade 1 company lto at the Festival, that was over 2m4f, the step up to 3m1f could see improvement. The last time he ran over a similiar trip was at this track over hurdles this time last year. Could run well but needs to find more.

HEART WOOD trained by Henry De Bromhead who has a knack for getting horses ready for the big meeting comes here a fresher horse than the front 3 in the market. It’s a big jump up in trip for this lightly raced 6yo who came from France in 2022. Won well lto but the margin wouldn’t have been the same if a couple had stayed on their feet.

Nigel Twiston Davies was quite bullish about BROADWAY BOY’s chances at Cheltenham but he was withdrawn as he scoped dirty in the week leading up to the festival. Must jump better than he did lto at Warwick, got quite a few wrong but that looks like a blip rather than the norm.

GIOVINCO is the outsider of the three but ran a blinder lto at the Festival behind FACT TO FILE.

The extra furlong will suit today, he is very consistent and certainly won’t be out of place in this line up.

Verdict: Really tough race as a couple have been hiked up the handicap and therefore take there chance in this Grade 1. GIOVINCO has been overlooked in this, he ran really well lto, he’s ultra consistent, jumps and travels well and comes here relatively fresh having had an easy prep going into Cheltenham. Lucinda Russell can get the ready too. She won this in ‘22 with AHOY SENOR who actually nearly won today - so the yard have a soft spot for this meeting.

14.55 GRADE 1 NOVICES’ HURDLE

JP McManus loves winning this race. He’s been successful in recent years with BUVEUR D’AIR, JONBON and INTHEPOCKET. This year he is repped by the son of ANNIE POWER, MYSTICAL POWER.

Last seen finishing 2nd in Cheltenham’s Supreme, he perhaps got stuck in the mud but tomorrow’s conditions won’t be much better. That said, Aintree is an easier track.

FIREFOX is next in the market. He got thumped by MYSTICAL POWER in the Supreme and on that basis, it’ll be hard to reverse the form.

DYSART ENOS is Fergal O’Brien’s unbeaten mare. A no show at Cheltenham for being lame, her form has received a big boost from GOLDEN ACE (in the mares race she missed!) who she beat up in a bumper here at Aintree last year. On GOLDEN ACE’s behalf, she looked a different horse this year - bigger, faster and stronger. The question on everyone’s mind now is - what would have happened if DYSART ENOS raced in the mares? We’ll find out today.

The others on form might struggle to win this.

Verdict: JP targets this race, this is surely MYSTICAL POWER’s to lose but a change of tactics at Cheltenham didn’t help FIREFOX and he’ll be leading the charge today and hopefully not get caught.

15.30 GRADE 1 MELLING CHASE

Wow some good horses have won this race. DON COSSACK, POLITLOGUE, MIN and FAKIR D’OUDAIRIES. Hendo’s big gun JONBON heads the market. It could be a huge week for JP.

Only 7 runners turn up today but it is a cracker that is worth waiting for. JONBON, like SHISHKIN (who didn’t win yesterday) and SIR GINO (who did win yesterday), is coming into this having skipped Cheltenham due to the Nicky Henderson stable form.

Is Hendo back? Well, his horses are certainly more trustworthy today given how SIR GINO won.

JONBON probably has the best profile and Hendo has wanted to step this horse up in trip for a good 18 months. 

PIC D’ORHY has been a different animal this season, so it seems like he is hitting his peak as a nine-year-old which is maybe a few years after a few thought he would. The form of his Ascot Chase has worked out as PROTEKTORAT has won the Ryanair since and AHOY SENOR nearly won the Bowl yesterday. One would question how forwardly ridden the two losers were that day, but you can’t deny the form. Cobden has said on a recent blog that he would prefer a sounder surface, so it might be worth seeing what the ground is like after the opener? 

PROTEKTORAT finally picked up his big scalp of the season as he dominated the Ryanair in similar conditions to what he’ll get today. He has good course form at Aintree as he won the Manifesto as a novice chaser and he bolted up in the 2021 Many Clouds Chase, so that will put him in a great place for today. He’s a major player.

Coming into the Ryanair, the vibes about ENVOI ALLEN were scarily good, so much so that he was sent off the 9/4 fav. 

Turning for home in the Ryanair, he looked a likely winner but it was a case of showing plenty on the bridle and not finding much off the bridle. That being said, his neck-second to GERRI COLOMBE in the Ladbrokes Champion Chase looks really good and he’s probably the freshest horse of the market principles. He’ll also benefit from a run under his belt as he came on for his first run of this season.

From here, the rest of the field are double-figure prices. CONFLATED has been a warrior this season. He’s done well twice behind GALOPIN DES CHAMPS despite unseating his rider on both occasions, he nearly won the Ladbrokes Champion Chase if not for jumping out to his right, and he was solid in the Ryanair. 

First-time cheekpieces could spark improvement from him, though he disappointed at Aintree last season having run at Cheltenham before.

EASY GAME won on his latest start and that form was franked as GENTLEMANSGAME followed up by winning the Charlie Hall Chase. However, this last run was in September, so he may need it.

Finally, MINELLA DRAMA completes the field. His best run of this season was when carrying 11-9 around Aintree to finish second in the Old Roan Chase and he has more form around the place from his second to PIC D’ORHY in this race last season. However, he’d need to step up by at least 15lbs to win this. That being said, all hope is not lost with this lad. If he continues to drop through the handicap, he’ll win a nice pot at some point, maybe even next season’s Paddy Power Gold Cup.

Verdict: JONBON is the horse to beat in the race and he comes here fresh. If he’s sorted out his jumping then he can trounce this field.

16.40 GRADE 1 SEFTON NOVICES’ HURDLE

The Albert Bartlett runners are here to take each other on. This should be a fun watch.

READIN TOMMY WRONG flopped at Cheltenham. He was the warm favourite as he is here but he was pushed along 3 or 4 out. Presumably just an off day, we all have them.

Willie Mullins saddles DANCING CITY as well who was 3rd in the Albert Bartlett. He’s won the Novice Hurdle Grade 1 at the Dublin Racing Festival and subsequent Albert Bartlett winner was 11 lengths adrift. This lad is by no means second string.

Henderson and the Donnelly family would have sighed some relief when Sir Gino won yesterday. SHANAGH BOB was a non runner at Cheltenham due to the bug going around the yard. Yes Sir Gino won yesterday, but that was a pretty poor Grade 1. This lad by Mahler was a 200k purchase - they certainly spend some cash! Unbeaten status is on the line.

Ben Pauling saddled the bumper winner but this will give him and Kielan Woods something to celebrate after he was just denied in the Albert Bartlett. How much has that race taken out of him we won’t know, but on that evidence 7/2 is juicy. They won’t want to give this lad a soft lead, he won’t be stopping.

CROKE PARK comes from Gordon’s camp. He missed the bus to Cheltenham because he stepped on a stone, the eventual AB winner Stellar Story took his place. 7th in the Lawlors Of Nass won by READING TOMMY WRONG, something must have been amiss then although he was only 14/1. Gordon’s only runner might be significant.

Skelton nearly got Langer Dan to win a Grade 1 yesterday, shows how much they had in hand at Cheltenham. CHERIE D’AM has been targeted for this since Sandown. Lucinda Russel won this with the mare Apple Away, can Big Boy Dan do the same.

David Maxwell on a 50/1 shot will be fun to watch. He’ll give it everything like he normally does. “The most fun you can have with your trousers on.”

KYNTARA is on a seconditis streak this year. He needs to improve again but he has course winning form.

Verdict: the two Mullins horses look interesting. READIN TOMMY WRONG has a streak of 1’s next to his name. He was pulled up far too quickly at Cheltenham but was still the 2/1f. Despite us being forgiving souls (and we presume that Paul and Willie know what they’re up to), we’re going to side with JUKEBOX MAN who looks a proper horse on the up and will love the going. Pauling can get another Aintree winner and rub it in Andrew Mrdson

HANDICAP NOTES

In the 14.20, KATEIRA looks suspiciously well handicapped given her form with IRISH POINT last year (he is now rated 159). Interestingly, KATEIRA’s half bro, THE NEW LION won at Market Rasen only this week!

RISK ON

After a good day Wednesday landing a single on Pauling’s KING OF THE ROAD 5/2 (11/4 in places) and yesterday landing SECRET SQUIRREL at 4’s we go again. We’ll bet several at Aintree today including a 27/1 acca.

Our NAP will be posted on X @equinties but we will play small bets on the above preview horses. Including this acca:

GIOVINCO top 3

KATEIRA top 5

FIREFOX top 2

JONBON win

THE JUKEBOX MAN top 2

27/1 acca