Equinties - Aintree day 1

Gm Equinauts

The rain, the ground, the Cheltenham tax, the yard form… all these things could mean a day for the bookmakers. Just because it’s Aintree, it doesn’t mean you have to bet every race and blow your bank. Today’s racing is tough tough, tough and there WILL be some big upsets.

Play the TOTE Fantasy instead. You still get the same kick from a winner, you get a big cash prize but more, you don’t get the big downside if your banker loses.

Plus, if you join our stable, you could be in with a chance of winning a £250 bet on the Grand National.

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

GRAND PRIZE STILL ON

It was a bit of a shock to see IL EST FRANCAIS beaten so easily in the Prix Murat at Auteuil on the weekend, and many wondered if he was okay as it looked too bad to be true. Even jockey James Reveley was wondering the same thing post-race.

Confirmation from the yard has since come out and they are still firmly on course for next month’s Grand Steeple-Chase de Paris. On the poor run, Noel George said: "He's not converted his energy in the right direction. He was contracted and putting too much effort into the whole thing. We know that he relaxes in front so that's how we'll be riding him in the future”.

His next run is crucial as many people hoped he would be on the boat back to the UK for a tilt at the King George or even a try at next year’s Gold Cup. So, if they get him back to his Kempton best, a big performance in the Grand Steeple-Chase de Paris could be expected, and you may even be getting a bigger price about him to do so now.

DERBY HOPEFUL

Aidan O’Brien and Coolmore laid down another interesting contender for the Derby yesterday as THE EQUATOR scorched to success in the 1m2f maiden. 

The 3yo is a full to BLUEGRASS, an ex-Ballydoyle inmate who is now jumping for Stuart Edmunds. On that side of things, you would hope he is better than his older brother, but at least he showed a good turn of foot on tough ground to beat his stablemate. Books introduced him at 25/1 for the Derby after the display, and O’Brien mentioned the Lingfield Derby Trial as a potential place for him as he’d prefer the better surface in time. 

Could this be one to watch in the Derby scene going forward?

BIG RACE PREVIEW

As usual, we have only previewed the open company races and left out the handicaps.

13.45 GRADE MANIFESTO NOVICES’ CHASE 

GREY DAWNING is the stand out in this company and Evens favourite suggests the same. A proper Grade 1 winning son of FLEMENSFIRTH, he has had the measure of GINNY’S DESTINY before and can likely keep his winning theme going.

GINNY’S DESTINY is quite a juicy 4/1 if you like him to reverse the form with Skeltons, which he has done this season, albeit receiving weight. The rain is the important factor, GREY DAWNING probably stays better than the Nichols challenger but GD is naturally quicker. This will be a stamina test though. 

COLONEL HARRY will love the heavy ground. He was too far back in the Turners and never challenged but stayed on well and may be one to take seriously over 3 miles next season. After all he won a p2p and cost £130,000, so he’s not to be taken lightly.

IL ETATIT TEMPS, the little terrier who never gives up. He never looks like he’s in love with Cheltenham, last year he ran too free in the Supreme and he looked well beaten in the Arkle before finishing 3rd. He didn’t jump well at Cheltenham, but this is over a longer trip so they’ll go that stride slower and he likes soft ground. Plus, he’s trained by the Wizard.

BLOW YOUR WAD takes his chance which isn’t exactly the most positive bulletin but he comes here a fresh horse (not that that matters greatly). Left handed tracks haven’t been his forte, although he’s won at Newbury, he found Aintree and Cheltenham tough, and Kempton easy. That might be the grade of races but this still looks like a challenge on that evidence. 

Verdict: We’ve had enough of Mullins winning everything. The Skelton brothers are going from strength to strength and they have a standout horse in GREY DAWNING.

14.20 GRADE 1 4YO JUVENILE HURDLE

This race has been a little hit and miss in terms of quality over the years. DEFI DU SEUIL and APPLES JADE are two superstar names you might recognise but other than that, the honours list is quite forgettable.

SIR GINO was odds on for the Triumph and is odds on again here for this having missed the big one. due to health concerns despite Nicky not finding anything wrong with him.

Nicky has been purring over this guy stating he is very, very good and to be honest he proved that when basically breaking BURDETT ROAD. It cannot be overstated how impressive that last time out victory at Cheltenham was.

SIR GINO’s pedigree is pretty hard to read if not opaque so it’s fascinating he’s turned out this good. The ground should be okay.

KARGESE is next in the market at 3/1 and is the only filly in the race so carries 7lbs less weight than the boys. She ran in the Triumph that SIR GINO missed…the race he was priced up odds on for.

KALIF DU BERLAIS landed us the Sir Alex double back in January. If Hendo has been purring over SIR GINO, then Nicholls has been writing love songs about this chap - he thinks he’s a Gold Cup horse and one of the smartest young horses they’ve had for a long time. That said, Paul wasn’t keen on him as a Triumph horse so surely that means he doesn’t fancy him for today (being very much a chaser in the making). His pedigree is NH through and through and will love love love the slop.

The others will struggle to win.

Verdict: It’s hard to look past SIR GINO in this who has done nothing but look spectacular but my goodness does that feel like a long time ago. He isn’t race fit and hell be the first Hendo horse to be tested since their disastrous Cheltenham. We take punting quite seriously and all the boxes aren’t ticked with SIR GINO despite him being the best horse in the race. Plus all his proper form has come on good ground…will his fitness, or lack of, get him stuck in the mud today? A possibility, especially with his action. It’s a t3ricky one. Nicholls’ KALIF DU BERLAIS is absolutely bred for the mud. He could be the one to capitalise in this should SIR GINO flops and since he’s doubled in price out to 9’s which makes for a bet.

14.55 GRADE 1 AINTREE BOWL

This year’s Aintree Bowl is certainly an interesting one with seven runners who each have strong arguments backing their case for the W.

GERRI COLOMBE heads the market, though there has been a bit of a drift from 11/8 out to 7/4. After his second to GALOPIN DES CHAMPS in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, the one worry with him is if he’s had a hard race and won’t take to Aintree. 

The word from the yard is that he has come out of the Gold Cup very well and that form with GALOPIN DES CHAMPS is the best on show. He’ll also like the ground, which is a big bonus, and he backed up from Cheltenham to Aintree last season.

After SIR GINO, SHISHKIN will be the second test for the Sevenbarrows yard as to whether they are at their best. He won this race last year on better ground but he has shown his well-being on soft having won the Denman Chase, a race that has seen PROTEKTORAT come out and frank the form, last month. He’ll be fresh, but it’s just a case on how the Henderson horses are running.

The interesting runner in this field is CORBETTS CROSS on his first delve into open company since his National Hunt Chase success lto. Emmet Mullins can be clever at placing horses so we’re not questioning this one but the pace of the National Hunt Chase is typically very slow and CORBETTS CROSS might just be looking at a lot of tail for most of the race.

Trying first-time cheekpieces is BRAVEMANSGAME for Paul Nicholls and Harry Cobden. Apparently, connections were going to use them for the Gold Cup but a bad piece of work in the cheekpieces before Cheltenham made them take them off ahead of the Gold Cup. This time, they are sticking with them, but the ground could scupper his chances as he is better on a sounder surface.

The horse who fought out the finish with SHISHKIN last season was AHOY SENOR and having had him entered all over the place - including in a handicap over three miles - they have turned their attention to here. He’ll handle the ground, but it could be questioned if he truly sees out 3m1f on heavy. That will be a test but he seems to love Aintree.

GENTLEMANSGAME and THUNDER ROCK complete the field, preference would go to GENTLEMANSGAME as he ran off a long lay-off in the Gold Cup and he’s sure to come on for that effort. He’ll love the ground as well.

Verdict: Do you back the recent form horse who’s last race may have taken it’s toll or the best horse who has a question mark over his well being? We’re torn here. It’s tough to ignore GERRI COLOMBE’s big run in the Gold Cup but that race in notorious for taking it out of horses. The best horse, on his day, is SHISHKIN so we will go with him and hope that he provide a nice form boost for our 16/1 selection in yesterdays ‘a look ahead’ feature but we will not be betting this race.

15.30 GRADE 1 AINTREE HURDLE

This is a two horse race between IMPAIRE ET PASSE and BOB OLINGER. The money has come for IMPAIRE ET PASSE all week and as a result he is a short 5/4 which is WILD given his market adversary absolutely thumped him last time out! Watch the race back, BOB OLINGER bullied him.

We don’t get this market move, unless there is a rumour flying around that BOB O stacked it in training or something, there is NOTHING to suggest IMPAIRE ET PASSE will reverse the form.

But the market is really shouting for IMPAIRE ET PASSE.

The others have no chance, maybe LANGER DAN can place if he’s trying but it will mess his campaign up for handicap next season.

Verdict: Everyone seems to be on IMPAIRE ET PASSE but even back at this trip, we don’t see it so we’ll go with BOB OLINGER for the market upset.

16.05 THE FOXHUNTERS’

This race can be some sight to watch - National fences and amateur riders, often carnage and more, our man mad Maxwell is in the line up! He’s actually got a fantastic record in this race having finished in 2nd in it in ‘22, 3rd in ‘21, 3rd in ‘19 and 3rd in ‘16 (6th in ‘18, 5th in ‘17) , it’s safe to safe he LOVES this race.

ITS ON THE LINE heads the market. JP owned of course, he was bought to win at Cheltenham but got collared late home. He was under the pump for a long way as he tends to race lazily. Aintree isn’t the track to do that at.

BENNYS KING is getting backed, 14’s into 6’s. He’s 13 now but boy did he look good lto and scooted well clear of CAT TIGER. The distance he put on CAT TIGER mean he has a strong old chance today.

ROMEO MAGICO bolted in last time, he lok

SPYGLASS HILL will carry on pugging away in the mud.

TIME LEADER shouldn’t be able to reverse form with market leader.

GABORIOT was a great winner for the newsletter last time out. He is a horse transformed since acclimatising from France. Place chances.

CAT TIGER seems to have lost his way so if you fancy him you’ll love BENNYS KING.

The rest will struggle.

Verdict: We’re keen to take on the JP fave here for the act he races so lazily, old Derek will have his work cut out today. If he’s on a going day, he will be hard to beat. The horses with place chances are SPYGLASS HILL and GABORIOT, the former slightly preferred in the mud.

17.15 THE BUMPER

A Grade 2 bumper for the girls here and last year we picked the winner in DYSART ENOS to give us our fifth winner from 7 races. This is harder especially in the mud.

BABY KATE was a lovely winner for us last time out. She is the wright fave given her form and pedigree. Ground should just be okay but would prefer her on a quicker surface.

Another last time out winner for this newsletter was HONKY TONK HIGHWAY. He won in the mud that day but we do wonder if her optimum is faster.

DIVA LUNA was yet ANOTHER last time out winner for this newsletter. She looked good lto but only just made it to the line when Skelton’s LISTENTOYOURHEART was closing fast.

MONGIBELLO bolted up at Down Royal in December but then was beaten up in a Grade 2.

JUBILEE ALPHA has collateral form putting her behind HONKY TONK HIGHWAY.

LISTENTOYOURHEART should be priced closer to DIVA LUNA (maybe DL needs to be bigger?).

METKAYINA was a very expensive purchase for the Noel Fehily syndicate after her last win. That form still puts her behind LISTENTOYOURHEART though.

AUSTINS HILL LAS is very interesting on pedigree. She reps the Fergal yard who won this race last year. She is by a sire who produces horses bred for the mud, SLADE STEEL being his best one. We’d be guessing with this one, which at this level, is hard - we’d have liked liked to have seen this one run and the fact Paddy isn’t riding is a concern/or is Fergal simply keen to start giving opps to younger riders?

LA MARQUISE was a good winner for us on rules debut. SHe’ll stay in the mud but might be getting beaten up by the older mares today.

Verdict: We have BABY KATE as the one to beat. Plus, she’s trained by magic Mullins. Thanks to our pedigree expertise, we have taken a lot of yield from most of these girls so the race owes us nothing.

RISK ON

After a good day landing a single on Pauling’s KING OF THE ROAD 5/2 (11/4 in places) and a small bit of yield from our Lucky 15, today looks challenging.

In fact, it cannot be overstated how tough Aintree is today. Should you, like us, not have strong views but can’t sit on your hands and just watch and enjoy racing, use the TOTE FANTASY to stay involved.

13.33 SECRET SQUIRREL

We love this horse and you’ll never miss him in a race - he’s the one with the blonde mane! Kept ticking over on the flat nicely (in prep for this?), when last seen over hurdles he was given an absolute stinker by Bass who owes him a better rider today, and David is more than capable of making it up to him. Ground fine for him, it’s a question mark for the Derham fave. 4’s is a dirty ew.

13.45 GREY DAWNING

For reasons in the above preview.

We’ll play a 7/1 lottery acca with small lunch money on the following:

GREY DAWNING W, KALIF DU BERLAIS P, SHISHKIN W, BOB O P (top 2), GABORIOT P (top 6) and BABY KATE P (top 4) = 70/1.