Equinties - Aintree day 1

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Gm Equinauts

Yesterday was a good day for this newsletter.

We'd been waiting two weeks for this girl to get an entry and boy did patience pay off. She bolted up.

Now, if her drift leave you short of breath through sheer panic (I saw some 11/4!) or if her performance leave you breathless, you probably need to control your emotions better...

Or you might just have asthma. Disclaimer: I AM NOT A DOCTOR AND THIS IS NOT A DIAGNOSIS.

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Now, before we dive into the good stuff remember, it's a big day today with a lot of chimpy temptation around as the Grand National meeting starts. You don't need to bet every race!

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Let's dive tf in.

Headline roundup

The BMG, the BHA and the FCA

In a shocking 11th-hour swerve, BRAVEMANSGAME was forcibly withdrawn from today’s Aintree Bowl yesterday evening by the BHA (under instruction from the FCA).

This isn’t a good look for racing with the ‘shop window effect’ of the National just days away. We are literally two days past the whole ITV GMB x Animal Rising shenanigans and now the Cheltenham Gold Cup second has been pulled from the races.

Presumably because the FCA think he's a proceed from criminal activity.

It does make the declared – non-declared – declared sequence that went down on Tuesday make a bit more sense though if Nicholls and the team knew something might be up. But tbf to Nicholls, what else is he to do?

The BHA has said that they “will continue to liaise with the FCA and other affected parties” so watch this space.

Now, it’s just five who are set to go to post, and we are going to fire straight into the previews.

Aintree day 1

Grade 1 Manifesto Novices’ Chase

Five are set to run in an interesting Manifesto today, a race headed by the Racing Twitter horse, BANBRIDGE.

He is rated three pounds lower than STAGE STAR but has been very good on decent ground and his staying-on second to EL FABIOLO in the Irish Arkle reads very well – if the rain falls, his chance goes rapidly, but good, racing ground will be his forte.

WATCH THE CONDITIONS TODAY.

STAGE STAR is a warm second-favorite in the betting following his very good Turners win lto in a race where the market principles didn’t come to the fore.

He is versatile on most surfaces, however, the tough season he has had (five runs since November) may just catch up to him at Aintree, something that happened to EDWARDSTONE last year?

SAINT ROI, VISIONARIAN, and STRAW FAN JACK complete the field and it’s Peter Fahey’s runner who has come for some money from 20/1 into 12/1 – he was poor in the Irish Arkle but has been freshened up since and his runs over 2m2f this season have seen him win a Galway Grade 3 and finish second to the progressive ADAMANTLY CHOSEN.

Could the extra distance see the best out of him?

Grade 1 4yo Juvenile Hurdle

Willie Mullins could kickstart his Grand National meeting off to a flyer today as he has the extremely warm favourite ZENTA topping the market at 5/4 for the Juvenile Hurdle – she has the best form from that Triumph and is 12lbs right at the weights with the next closest, BO ZENITH, due to being top-rated by six pounds and receiving a seven-pound allowance.

Having beaten the best of the British lto, NUSRET is back after his Adonis victory in search of Grade 1 success, however, his defeats at the hands of LOSSIEMOUTH and BLOOD DESTINY pre-Cheltenham could see him exposed at this level.

SARSONS RISK actually fell in the Adonis when seemingly in a great rhythm and a pipe-opener at Kempton on the flat should have the horse right where connections want him.

The horse coming for a touch of money is SCRIPTWRITER for the same trainer as last year’s controversial winner, KNIGHT SALUTE – he was very disappointing in the Adonis and Milton Harris fancied him for the Triumph having backed him heavily before his Adonis run so a bounce back to form wouldn’t be the most outlandish thing to happen.

Grade 1 Aintree Bowl

With no BRAVEMANSGAME, the Aintree Bowl sees SHISHKIN as the 2/1 favourite on his first start at three miles after his loss at short odds in the Ryanair.

He clattered the third-last and had no route through until a gap opened after the last, however, it’s a big ask after a race like that for him to bounce back.

A PLUS TARD, a former Gold Cup winner, has pulled up on his last two starts, however, he was going as well as you would like lto in the Gold Cup before being impeded at the 17th, ultimately seeing him lose four lengths and the race.

He is the top-rated horse in this field, it’s again whether he can come back to himself.

Another who had a hard luck story in the Gold Cup was AHOY SENOR – he was the one who fell at the 17th when in a good rhythm, something that is key for him – Aintree is a happy hunting ground for him, but if he has come out of the fall well enough is the key question.

CONFLATED is probably the one with the least questions to answer – he ran his race in the Gold Cup under a jockey who only knew he was going to ride him 20 minutes before the race, ran well at Aintree last year in this race having fallen in the Ryanair at Cheltenham prior to that, and loves a three-mile stint on a flat track.

He ran a very good CLAN DES OBEAUX close last year and he could just be the class act.

GA LAW completes the field – stepping up to three miles needs to produce further improvement, it can do if you read his Sky Bet Handicap Chase run positively, but the improvement needs to be around a stone.

Grade 1 Aintree Hurdle

Well, this won’t take too much of a preview as it should be a CONSTITUTION HILL parade for the 1/8 shot but oh boy did it rile some people up yesterday.

This race is categorically interesting though as this is the first time since his PtP days that we are seeing him step up in trip.

Michael Buckley was talking about the Gold Cup for this lad from his Supreme Hurdle days and the question of whether he’ll jump a fence next season is on everyone’s lips, but more importantly, if he can run a good race here over this distance, we can start to get really excited about his future in this game.

A good performance tomorrow may persuade Mr. Henderson to send him over the big stuff next season. Surely he has to stop f*cking about over hurdles next year?

We just hope that big Conny goes round Aintree without a hiccup and produce another monstrous performance. Good luck big boy.

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Bumper previews

Taunton

Nicholls’ could very well shit up having a had a run but I really don’t rate that bumper he was in lto and I feel his price is only short because of connections. Connections (Alex Ferguson et al) are actually going for the bumper double with the hot fave at Aintree too. I do think this one at Taunton is one for next year though.

CALL OF DUTY for Lavelle and SPARKLING DUKE for Joe Tizzard are the better bred ones (and they don’t need to acclimatize having moved from France like Nicholls’).

Summary: I’d play two ew at prices here, CALL OF DUTY and SPARKLING DUKE, 8’s and 12’s respectively.

Aintree

Tough bumper and they're all mares. Loads could win it and we will not be suggesting a strong play in it.

Nicholls' looked good lto but didn't beat much. Mullins' JOLIE COEUR ALLEN is a 4yo filly from France so will take her on straight away, the same for De Bromheads.

Queally and Codd won this in '18. I thought Codd wasnt going to come over today but this is his only ride and could be a bullish pointer. More exposed horse than most but good enough to be in the mix.

DYSART ENOS has done nothing wrong and I think she will prove best for the Brits. Fergal could have a big meeting.

Summary: With reasons to take on the young French imports, I'll hang my hat on DYSART ENOS at 9's.

Risk on

For our Grand National meeting day 1 selections, see our twitter @equinties.

15.20 MLLE CHANEL

Staking and banking

There was a lot of positive feedback yesterday from people benefitting from our max bet staking advice. Well, and general bank roll tips too. So we'll keep it here as a reminder.

If you want to take punting seriously and use racing as a value add to your life, keep a betting bank, protect it at all times (none of this 'ah we're on a bull run, I'll stick a few stupid bets on') and stick to risking the % stakes, upping notional as the bank grows. Betting banks will change your punting forever.

Help keep a healthy bank by betting less and using the TOTE Fantasy game to feed the chimp.

Create your stable and use code QHZ36G to join the BGP league here: