Equinties - Adayar is back

Gm Equinauts 

Despite enjoying a very bullish start to September, there’s been a couple of results which, had they gone our way, it would have turned this bull run into a fucking ape run (namely ONWARD ROUTE and that yak, MATCH last night).

We’re gonna keep pushing, with discipline. Playing singles with conviction (and leverage) and protecting the bank at all costs.

Remember, every time you dip into the bank for ‘just another bet’ or think ‘this tipster is on a good run, I’ll follow him too’, that’s an immediate reduction in your risking capacity (also, do you keep multiple banks for every tipster you follow? Probably not, but you should be if that’s the way you’re playing).

All the small size, big return lottery acca’s you place and then re-load when they inevitably bomb, yeh well that’s reducing your capacity too. I see way, way too many people on my Twitter feed playing lottery acca’s knowing full well they haven’t considered what that actually means to place.

‘Ah, well it’s just a tenner’

Perspective: That ‘just a tenner’ is 1% of a 1000 bank. 1% is a half bet to me.

Don’t get me wrong, the winning 2% defo play acca’s, that’s where serious yield can be taken, but they’ll clips the singles too, always. The winning 2% are generally properly smart people, placing educated bets, wholly aware of the calculated risk and in complete control of their emotions.

If you’re one who can’t help wanting to land the big lottery acca’s, the odds are against you and you need to prepare to lose.

The chimps who continue to only play lottery acca’s and end up hating me or racing or both because they’re losing money week in week out, I have no sympathy for. They’re stupid and I hate stupid.

If you’re reading this thinking ‘well, I’m not a pro and it’s just a bit of fun’, you immediately give up the right to be butt hurt.

Change the chimp acca mindset and stick to the prog. There’s no pride in poverty. The prog is your bread and butter, the acca’s are your bonus. You wouldn’t expect your bonus at work having not done the day job, right? Don’t expect it here.

Note: If you’re going to be disciplined and risk singles and acca’s, your betting bank will have to accommodate your extra positions in the market. If you’re scared of the accumulative outlay and don’t want to play smart, just stop betting. It’s not worth the stress both mentally and financially.

Anyway, this is a big week. There’s a good bet today over in France, then it’s basically Saturday, BGP Capital launches this week and then we have a strong, possibly max bet Tuesday (green light dependant).

Now, let’s dive in.

Headline roundup

Doncaster’s St Leger meeting hosts three races worthy of note (aired on ITV3 and Sky Sports Racing), so let’s check ’em out.

Weatherbys Scientific £300,000 2yo Stakes

The 14.00 today is a big-money contest for two-year-olds over six and a half furlongs – 15 go to post.

Interestingly, the weights each horse will carry are determined by the median price its sire’s yearlings sold for at the main public auction sales in Europe and North America during 2021. Basically, the more the horse cost, the more weight they carry.

COLD CASE, being a Showcasing, is carrying the full 9-4 with the in-form Andrea Atzeni on top – he is the current market leader at 11/4 for Karl Burke, a trainer who holds a modest 17% SR for 2YO turf races this season.  

He represents the NOBLE STYLE form from his victory in the red-hot Gr2 Gimcrack at the York Ebor meeting – he was a five lengths third that day and was caught for a bit of speed, this step up in trip by half-a-furlong should suit but would he prefer a further distance in time? Well, he’s out of a mile-winning mare, and he didn’t go backwards lto so you’d expect so.

Next in market is MAGICAL SUNSET, a €340k son of KODIAC, representing the Richard Hannon team who love these two-year-old Stakes races – Sean Levey takes the ride, a jockey who has a 24% SR around Doncaster this season. 

Debut win at Windsor – the second, SAKHEER, bolted up in a novice race at Haydock last week, franking the form: 

SAKHEER’s victory at Haydock last week, we don’t usually include extra videos, but this was very, very good: 

William Buick is the always on-fire jockey in the UK – he has 151 winners to his name in 2022 and 21 of those have come in the last 14 days, boasting a 45% SR for his efforts. 

Buick is riding Andrew Balding’s HOLGUIN for the first time as HOLGUIN’S normal driver, David Probert, has gone to Chester to ride four for his boss, including SCHMILISSON who is rapidly dropping in the handicap to a nice mark – is that a tip in itself? My eyes will tell me, not my bank.  

This HAVANA GREY colt won well on debut and ran a cracker behind PERSIAN FORCE in conditions race at Newbury – I know Balding thinks a lot of this lad and off 8-11 he could outrun his odds at 10/1.  

Debut victory: 

Our view: Hannon’s form against that Varian 2yo looks fucking strong and that’s what keeping the price of COLD CASE palatable. COLD CASE’S Gimcrack form will prove useful at the end of the season and although it’s boring, he’s the pick.

Gr2 May Hill Stakes 

The two-year-olds remain in action 35 minutes later, this time 10 fillies are set to do battle over the straight mile. 

DANCE IN THE GRASS for the Johnston duo is currently the very warm favourite at a shade of evens and you can see why – she beat ONE NATION on debut who went on to win twice after that, and he comfortably got the better of FAIRY CROSS lto at Sandown who has since picked up success in the Gr3 Prestige Stakes at Goodwood.  

LTO: 

Being a CRACKSMAN out of a mare related to lots of middle-distance horses, this step up to a mile should be right up her street. 

Of the trainers to have runners in this year’s renewal, Karl Burke is the only one who has picked up success in this race (LAURENS in 2017) – he sends his LOPE DE VEGA filly NOVAKAI to the race.  

This 2YO won very well on his debut but could only muster fifth when slightly outpaced in the Gr3 Solera Stakes over seven furlongs – out of a NATHANIEL mare, she is another who will be at her best over a longer distance and a mile could be key. 

Debut success: 

ALCOHOL FREE is off to the sales in December after two brilliant years with her owner Jeff Smith, so, can he unearth a new filly to take over her mantle? FRANKNESS is the one who has the chance to potentially do that today, as she lines up for her first Group race following a six-length demolition lto at Chester. 

She gave away weight to the rest of the field and still galloped through the line – this FRANKEL filly should be well suited to a mile and could be a very exciting one for Andrew Balding.  

Our view: Looks like a straight shoot out between the top two in the market. FRANKNESS seemingly has a few lbs to find with DANCE IN THE GRASS but that’s the one we’d hang our hats on without risk.

Gr2 Park Hill Fillies’ Stakes 

The final Group race of the day at Doncaster is the Park Hill Fillies’ Stakes over the same distance as Saturday’s Gr1 St Leger – eight go to post and Shadwell’s ESHAADA is the strong favourite at 13/8.  

She finished a staying-on second behind FREE WIND in the Lancashire Oaks 68 days ago (remember, this is the horse that nearly put FREE WIND through the railings) so you can see why she steps up in trip today – SEA LA ROSA was in second, she went on to win the Gr2 Prix de Pomone last month, franking the form.  

Add to that her Group 1 win on Champions Day at Ascot and you can understand her price, however, with the ground on the faster side and most of her best form has come with give in the ground, this could be a reason to oppose her.  

A lot in this field are fiends for softer ground – BELIEVE IN LOVE and URBAN ARTIST are the notable. After not receiving much rain over the last few days at Doncaster, be wary as to whether the horse you like prefers the softer ground that this time of the year usually experiences. 

Our view: ESHAADA is the Gr 1 filly in this race and worthy fave. Defo the one to beat.

RACING LEAGUE WEEK 5 

The penultimate week of the Racing League has rolled around, this time they make the trip to Southwell for the first time.  

As things stand, both London & The South and Sean Levey are at the top of the leaderboard, something that hasn’t really changed since week one (lame) – SANITISER provided Levey with a winner on his return to the Racing League last week. 

This week looks to be the best fixture for team and squad sizes – four teams (The East, The North, London & The South, and Wales & The West) are all sending a maximum number of runners to Southwell and even Kevin Blake has managed to round up nine horses to take to the Midlands-based track. Fuck me.  

Runners and riders (a thread): 

The final two weeks of the Racing League could see a splattering of Joker Cards (double points) deployed as every team still has at least one left to play - Team Ireland and Team Scotland have yet to play any.  

Saffie Osborne is a rider who has been relishing the Racing League so far, picking up 156 points for Wales & The West. 

Racing manager and her dad, Jamie, has been shrewdly placing her onto horses throughout the competition that have good chances and she has only one ride today – MILLTOWN STAR, a horse trained by Jamie Osborne as well.  

He was once rated 100 and won a Listed race in France meaning he could be well-handicapped back down to a mark of 75 today. 

His only UK win was three years ago: 

Quickfire news 

Ghiana suspended

Following the story we shared in the newsletter two days ago about Marco Ghiani, the BHA have suspended him on an ‘interim basis’ – however, no further news on whether this is drug-related. The BHA isn’t one to show their hand much when it comes to these situations so it could be a while before we get an update. 

Jack’s funeral

As many of you will know, Jack de Bromhead’s funeral took place yesterday at the Church of the Nativity of the Blessed Virgin Mary in Butlerstown, Ireland.  

It still hurts to even think about this tragedy, but both RTE News and David Jennings have produced wonderfully moving content that we ought to share – a real tear-jerker.  

RTE video: 

DJs piece in the Racing Post: 

Burrows suffers more bad luck 

News broke yesterday that MINZAAL, fresh from breaking the Haydock six-furlong track record in the Gr1 Betfair Sprint Cup on Saturday, has been forced into retirement due to a fracture to his left knee.  

This unfortunate event is more bad luck for his trainer Owen Burrows who saw his other Group 1 winner, HUKUM, sustain a career-threatening injury during his Coronation Cup victory in June. 

The son of a fairly new sire in MEHMAS himself, MINZAAL will head off to stud in a “blaze of glory” according to the Lambourn-based trainer – he was set to retire at the end of the season after the Gr1 Champions Sprint at Ascot anyway, but this news has brought that decision forward.  

More: 

Derby hero back

And finally, today is the day we get to see ADAYAR, last year’s Derby hero, back on the track after a plethora of setbacks – he runs in the 4:20 at Doncaster, a Conditions Stakes race over 1m2f, and just the two have turned up to oppose him.

Risk on

16.03 LEFT SEA

This girl runs over in Longchamp and looked very good on her debut. She’s got the pedigree to suggest she can go all the way, by FRANKEL out of a Gr 1 DUBAWI mare (same nick as ADAYAR, HOMESLESS SONGS and FRANKESS). BGP 1 took 4’s, 2/1 available. Full bet.

Potential plot job today, will Tweet if market moves. Will also play two small bets on COLD CASE and ESHAADA for reasons in the preview. Really not much size down here.