Equinties - All aboard Paddington

Author

BGP Capital
July 04, 2023

Equinties

Gm Equinauts

 One of the flat gambles of the season ended with punters (including us) licking their wounds as SILVER TRUMPET backed from 12’s into 15/8 and finished out the places at Windsor yesterday.

For any spectators without any prior knowledge of both horse and gamble, they’d have simply seen a horse too green, pick up too late.

Those close to the cause of the market move would have watched something entirely different; Charlie Bishop executing a clever ride to give the horse way too much to do too late.

The gamble on the horse was sizeable but it’s not the first time Eve’s yard has shown its hand early and if you were an owner paying horse costs and training fees you’d be pretty miffed if punters had taken your price too. Let’s face it, it’s not as if the prize money is enough to cover everything. This game is run by gambling.

Those more naive or new to the sport might think it was just a bad gamble, that’s fair enough, our guess is that horse will win when the owner wants.

Now, let’s dive in.

BGP FANTASY LEAGUE COMP

We’ve been hyping up the TOTE’s new Fantasy game since we found it. Why? Simply because there is nothing else out there now which can help people cage the betting chimp while maintaining an emotional interest in the big races of the day.

People bet way too much and the Fantasy allows you to get limited risk on, fill your brain up with the dope it craves and still be in the mix for a big win.

If we hit 250 stables, top of the BGP private league get’s a new ‘GM’ cap.

Tote

HEADLINE ROUND UP

Eclipse six

The feature event of the weekend is the Group 1 Coral-Eclipse and just the six have stood their ground, but it’s a quality field of six to be excited by.  

Two horses are now joint-favourite for the contest, PADDINGTON and EMILY UPJOHN.

Last week this newsletter highlighted whispers that Ballydoyle’s intentions were indeed to run PADDINGTON and a subsequent squeeze from 5’s now see’s him at 13/8 alongside Gosdens filly.  

EMILY UPJOHN is the horse that has been an intended runner ever since her Coronation Cup win on Epsom Oaks day, though having been odds-on for a while, she’s sold off to 13/8 and will no doubt give up favouritism closer to the race.  

Further worry for her backers is the fact she has to give seven pounds to her market rival, meaning she will have to run to somewhere near 130 to win (quick maths).

One horse who is a surprising inclusion is DUBAI HONOUR for William Haggas.

The globetrotting superstar for Mohamed Obaida was entered for the Prince Of Wales’s at Ascot before not being declared and having seen a small bit of market support, he could be one to upset the market principles, though he has to give 10 pounds away to PADDINGTON.  

KHAADEM to the July Cup

Following his 80/1 win in the Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot last month, connections of KHAADEM are looking to supplement their hero for the July Cup at Newmarket in two weeks.  

The seven-year-old finally broke his Group 1 duck at Ascot as he sprung a surprise under Jamie Spencer, and trainer Charlie Hills is hoping he could make it two from two on the biggest stage.

The Lambourn-based trainer said: “We didn't put him in the July Cup, but I would say if it stays dry there is a good possibility he will be supplemented for it.

“He's come out of Ascot really well. We haven't done much with him since, but he's been cantering and moving nicely. It's taken a while to get the Group 1, it was his ninth attempt someone told me.”

 

Baby Baaeed

Who would have thought KHAADEM would have two news stories about him today?

But yep, he’s featuring twice as the sister to Charlie Hills’ Group 1 winner, WHITE JASEMINE, will be offered for sale at the Tattersalls July Sale next week.  

Although she already has a great family page, she also has the added incentive of being in foal to last season’s wonder horse BAAEED, something prospective buyers will surely be eager to take a plunge into.  

The sale includes three-year-old ETHICAL DIAMOND who was an impressive two-length winner at Limerick lto on his third start and is out of a mare called PEARL DIAMOND, a half-sister to the 2008 German 2000 Guineas winner PRECIOUS BOY.

STATS OF THE DAY

The trainer target of the day is Johnston in the 15.17. He won last year’s renewal with AUSTRIAN THEORY and they look to retain their title this year 1lb lower.

Mega stat of the day is for the 16.27 where the last two renewals of this race have been won by trainers with the name George. George Baker won it in ‘20 and George Margason won in it ‘21… GEORGE Boughey this year?* 

Milton and Bradley Harris have a 100% sr at Stratford this season and 4 from 7 all-time. UGGY UGGY UGGY goes for them in the 18.40.

Hughie Morrison has a > 1 in 3 sr at Ffos Las and runs SURREY BELLE in the 20.00. More, he won this race last year with a maiden.

*this is a joke stat … or is it?

YOUNG BLOOD

19.00 Ffos Las

LABALABA cost £210,000 at the breeze-ups sale. By rocket sire SIOUX NATION, pedigree is mixed with a bit of stamina dam side. He showed up ok on debut without setting the pulses alight, he’s got an unorthodox running style and he was very unbalanced on debut but he sets the standard and that is reflected in his price.

JOHN STEED has a sharp ped but ran poorly on his last two starts after showing a bit of promise on his debut. Been given a mark of 74. He was keen last time over 5 so the step up in trip is interesting. Owner Dave Lowe as openly express no excuses this time.

ENPASSANT made an uninspiring debut, he should come on a lot from the run as the yards 2yos normally do. Just a question of how much he has improved in the 19 days since that run. He’s by speed stallion STARSPANGLEDBANNER and cost 160,000gns as a breeze up so he’s one to keep on side and not write off just yet but dam side suggests miiiight just need 7f-1m. Will love fast ground.

MIGGY MAGIC is by DARK ANGEL, cost €110,000. Another who made an uninspiring debut but he did have plenty of trouble in running and improvement is highly likely.

The 3 others aren’t worth considering.

Verdict: LABALADA is priced up to win but too short in price. On pedigree, ENPASSANT and MIGGY MAGIC are huge dangers.

RISK ON

We’ve taken our money from ROARING LEGEND and he probably goes in again but we’ll keep tools down today. Markets will open tomorrow for a good bet later in the week which will be delivered early to Saturday subscribers. Nice bet Thursday too.

Use the Fantasy and stats to keep the chimp occupied with low risk.