Equinties - Newbury gallop debrief

Gm Equinauts

Well, Racing X was fun to be in yesterday. Every man and his dog gave opinion on CONSTITUTION HILL.

Those who keep the faith and those who are crying ‘he’s finished’ firmly going toe to toe, almost like their opinion matters was quite funny to watch.

And yes, every one is entitled to their opinion but some are worth more than others.

We give a full debrief of that gallop and the rest of the day at Newbury feat. other horses, yes, other horses(!) and their potential targets.

Now, let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

THAT GALLOP - DEBRIEF

We spoke about the Newbury gallops first thing yesterday morning, but after we went to press, more developed.

So, here is a timeline of events that occurred at the Berkshire track training day yesterday.

CONSTITUTION HILL looked slightly underwhelming in his gallop at 09.33, Nicky Henderson led a de-brief with his jockey and owner at 09.37, and Henderson first spoke to the press 09.56.

The rest of the gallops morning continued until this speculation tweet came out at 10.34 which, invariably, sent Racing X into a spiral of conspiracy theories.

However, we had an official answer from Hendo less than 30 minutes later.

Starting with the tweet of speculation, it would be absolute media suicide for both Henderson and de Boinville to put on a fake face in front of the cameras numerous times after the gallop and say everything was okay with CONSTITUTION HILL when it actually wasn’t.

Surely, this isn’t the case, we believe it’s not and let’s face facts, unless something was going on behind the scenes, there is absolutely no way a trainer would retire a champ on a bit of morning work.

As for where we go from here, that’s a bit more complicated.

SIR GINO is a proper horse, we know that, and he could genuinely be an Arkle winner in four months’ time, but we do have to remember this is CONSTITUTION HILL we are talking about!

He looked like very good until the final few furlongs when de Boinville started to get to work. With our racing brains fully engaged, this would suggest he’s unfit and had a real blow.

That’s fine, in fact that’s part and parcel to training - no one knows what training prog they’ve each been doing over the recent months under Hendo’s expert tutiliage. But if that is the case, will he be ready in time for Newcastle next Saturday? That would be the immediate and a legitimate concern so be prepared if his race effort looks laboured.

Don’t forget, we saw a fat JONBON win in workman like fashion on Saturday. It’s quite evident not all of Hendo’s are cherry ripe first time out.

As for the rest of the gallop, what is worth highlighting?

It looks like CALDWELL POTTER is off to the John Francome where he’ll meet THE JUKEBOX MAN, while CAPTAIN TEAGUE might be saved for the Esher over three miles.

BRAVEMANSGAME might be targeted at the Grand National (wtaf!) and GIT MAKER might miss his big target of the Welsh National.

Finally, Olly Murphy believes there is a very nice handicap under the bonnet of CHASING FIRE, and he was very bullish.

HANDICAP CHANGES

To be honest with you, CONSTITUTION HILL took up most of the media’s time yesterday (shock) so not much else was revealed.

What was put into the public eye, naturally, was the handicap amendments for the week gone by.

Usually, we wouldn’t mention these, but there are a few worth talking about.

Firstly, IL RIDOTO has been given 11lbs to a mark of 149 for his Paddy Power success. Woof.

His actual rating this weekend was 138, but he ran off 141 due to PROTEKTORAT keeping the weights up. However, Freddie Gingell put his mark back down to 138 because of his 3lb claim, so giving him 11lbs for a four-length success is harsh.

This could price him out of winning the December Gold Cup, especially due to the fact that last year’s winner FUGITIF was dropped 3lbs to 150.

So who is one to keep an eye on?

Well, elsewhere, THE KEMBLE BREWERY was only given 5lbs to 128 for winning an easy Ffos Las novice under a penalty at odds of 2/7. Considering he beat VALGRAND on his second career start (and under a penalty) and the fact he beat David Pipe’s JURANCON at Worcester in October, he should still be well-handicapped for something nice this season!

Could connections even plot back from a County Hurdle with him? Kim Bailey with a Cheltenham Festival winner in a handicap hurdle seems a bit unnatural, but he has a nice one here who is ready to hit it at the very top.

A LOOK AHEAD

Last week, A Look Ahead banged in the Greatwood winner with BURDETT ROAD. Boom.

This week, we’re tackling the old Ladbrokes, also known as the Betfair Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle at 14.30 at Haydock.

DOYEN QUEST is back out quickly after his Cheltenham win last weekend.

He’s officially 5lbs well-in as the handicapper has him rated 135 though he gets to run off 130 here. There’s plenty to like as he’s unexposed over three miles and he’s quite clearly on a massive upward curve as beating GOWEL ROAD is good form.

SHOOT FIRST holds an entry for Charles Byrnes which is very interesting, and he is race-fit after his first run in two years at Galway 28 days ago. He was Pertemps qualified in 2022 before getting injured, and a few people thought he could be a Stayers’ Hurdle horse that season. BOTOX HAS was in second that day who has improved massively.

CATCH HIM DERRY could also represent Dan Skelton with Tristan Durrell booked to claim 3lbs off. He won at Newton Abbot at the end of October on heavy ground, so the more rain the better for him. DOYEN QUEST would look a better prospect from the yard, however. GWENNIE MAY BOY is also set to run, but this is his first start of the year.

KAMSINAS has followed down the same route as CRAMBO who finished third in this race last year when well-fancied:

He won the same Aintree race as CRAMBO did last year, and KANSINAS did that while defying a big market drift. He probably isn’t a Grade 1 horse though like CRAMBO was predicted to be at the time (proven right by his Long Walk win).

Emmet Mullins won the race last year with SLATE LANE, and this year he could look for a retainment of the title with BACKMERSACKME.

It’s hard to make out his form, but he was fourth to FLYING FORTUNE off 125 at Worcester four starts ago and he gets in off that same mark. If that was a ‘prep’ to see what mark he would get, he could well improve for the application of money.

KERRYHILL was a Grade 2 winner last year and he finished fourth to SHANAGH BOB at Cheltenham, so that’s a nice sign towards him.

The River Don he won has seen the form franked as the fourth, DESTROYTHEEVIDENCE, won at Chepstow over fences and THE NEWEST ONE has won since as well. It’s interesting seeing him here in handicap company, though 137 might be on the steep side?

ZAIN NIGHTS was a bit of an eye-catcher in the Pertemps Qualifier at Cheltenham on his first start of the season last month. The winner of that race, THE WALLPARK, has since been bought by JP McManus, so he could take a step forward here.

Of the rest, PHANTOMOFTHEPOINTS is entered and jocked up with Jack Tudor for David Pipe. He was second to FLORIDA DREAMS, the Greatwood Hurdle fifth, in a maiden hurdle over two miles before bolting up at Chepstow three starts later. He looks like the type who could improve for a step up in trip, it’s just whether he can do that on his first start of the year.

Verdict: This is a tricky analysis as we have no idea what the ground will be like. Haydock is currently covered in snow which is obviously set to thaw, and we’re trying to work out if that will make conditions soft or not. On the basis the ground will be wet and cold ahead of the forecasted rain Saturday, we are going to base selections for a soft ground race. KERRYHILL looked very good lto when staying on to make a demolition job of her rivals in the Grade 2 River Don. That was on good ground, but he lifts his legs and has the pedigree to suggest he’ll love the mud. KERRYHILL made the field of good horses look like lowly handicappers and can make a mockery of 137 should he have improved now a 6yo! The yard are bang in form too! He’s a small ew bet now at 11/1 and then we will wait for the day to decide what to do with the remaining stake.

BUMPER

FFOS LAS

Heavy going today! This will find a few out.

The money has come for THE LONG WALK for JJ who was a last time bumper pick. We questioned why he was relatively cheap given his pedigree was so dynamite and that showed. Yes, he stayed on into third but we don’t rate the form and he didn’t look overly big. At 5/4 the market expects him to win but we’re going to take him on.

SWINDON VILLAGE is a half to MEEP MEEP MAG who was a soft ground bumper winner. He might go in the ground but that isn’t a certainty despite his 2nd in a point.

Pauling always has to be feared in bumpers and he runs CALLANISI. He’s by KALANISI (shock) and they typically like top of the ground. We’re taking him on.

MONTICELLO is bred for the mud. He’s by new up and coming sire KARAKTAR, who is by HIGH CHAPARRAL who loved the mud. His dam sire is best in mud too. An 85k 2yo, that’s expensive given his half sister has disappointed. A good NH page and one to follow.

The other three in the race need handicapping with HARD DEALT one to keep any eye on for mammoth trips later in life.

Verdict: A pure blood pick here based on nothing but their page, we’re siding with MONTICELLO. Given there are only 7 in the race, we’ll bet him to win.

Bumper competition: after announcing three bumper competition winners last week, we’re excited to keep the bumper bull run going. Today we are placing £100 on MONTICELLO at 8/1. If he obliges, we’ll give the winnings to one lucky weekender subscriber…again!

BUMPER RESULTS

03/10/24 KAYLAN 2/1 (11/8 SP) - 1st

08/10/24 LAURA LOU 11/1 & PLAYAWAY GIRL 14/1 - 6th & 9th

09/10/24 JOTO 2/1 6th

09/10/24 ID GO MANIAC 5/2 - 4th

12/10/24 MONEYGARROW 5/1 (13/8 SP) - 1st

16/10/24 KINGSLEY 7/1 - 8th

18/10/24 STRONG RUN 5/1 - 2nd

22/10/24 SECRET SNIPER 5/1 - 3rd

23/10/24 THE LONG WALK 100/30 - 3rd

27/10/24 SIOG GEAL 5/2 - 2nd

27/10/24 QUINNS REWARD 9/1 (14/1 SP) - 7th

27/10/24 TENNESSE TANGO 9/1 (12/1 SP) - 1st

28/10/24 ALLSTITCHEDUP 12/1 - 9th

30/10/24 KOSAC D’OUDAIRIES 11/2 (5/2 SP) - 5th

01/11/24 BEAU GOLD 11/2 - 8th

02/11/24 KAJIKIA 17/2 - 1st

07/11/24 BROOKSIDE LA 5/2 - 4th

07/11/24 EL CAIROS 100/30 - 1st

09/11/24 JOTO 7/1 (16/1 SP) - 4th

09/11/24 LINALENE 6/1 (9/4 SP) - 3rd

09/11/24 SWINGIN SAFARI 11/8 - 1st

11/11/24 OH CLARE 8/1 (3/1) - 4th

12/11/24 LADY TADITA 7/2 (5/4 SP) - 1st

13/11/24 CASTLE CARROCK 4/6 (5/4 distance bet) - 1st

15/11/24 TONY JOE 2/1 & BENMORE 7/1 - 2nd & 3rd

15/11/24 HUNTERS SPRING 11/10 (6/4 distance bet) - 1st

16/11/24 STRONG RUN 11/2 (11/1 SP) - 3rd

18/11/24 MALDINI MILANO 1/ 2 (9/4 distance bet) -1st

RISK ON

12.15 BUCKNA

A lazy fave bet here but with strong reasoning behind it. Unbelievably, Greatrex is in good form and this lad was hella expensive - so you’d think he needs to win first time out. His pedigree means he’ll love the mud and so at 5/4 we’re playing a standard win bet meaning he won’t put much of a dent in the betting bank should he not convert, but a nice starter if he does!

14.00 THE CYPRIOT

The market is made here by the warm fave at 7/4. So, GREENWAYS appears to be very well handicapped but there is a strong chance he might struggle in the mud should he take his place in the race (we can see him get pulled). So we’re taking a chance with 25/1 THE CYPRIOT who was a bumper pick back in November of last year because of his breeding. He was bred and bought to be good, better than a horse rated 91 anyway. Owed to the nature of the yard (rhymes with eating), we’re guessing in a race like this he might finally be ‘off’ with the wind op a perfect excuse for the apparent improvement in form! If no money comes, kiss goodbye to your dough. 25/1 a small win bet - he either wins or comes last.

14.10 HELNWEIN

A two horse race between BOOSTER BOB and King’s lad. He needs to reverse the form with BOOSTER BOB but has the pedigree and frame to do so. A small win bet at 9/4.

19.00 DANTE’S LAD

Expected to win for Boughey. 9/4 a good bet.

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