Equinties - a new approach

Gm Equinauts

Well, Europe did it but boy they made hard work of it!

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

A NEW APPROACH

Quite what Charlie Appleby and Godolphin showed off in the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes on Saturday, we don’t know. All we can really say about WISE APPROACH is… wow.

WISE APPROACH’s performance in the six-furlong Group 1 isn’t necessarily a surprise, but he’s not exactly been a hype horse this season. Despite his 1 million guineas price tag, and the fact he is a half-brother to the Group 1 winner PERFECT POWER, he has batted through this season with a degree of anonymity.

He went off 16/5 for his debut, he placed at 10/1 in the Group 2 Norfolk Stakes, he then bolted up at odds-against in the Listed Rose Bowl Stakes, and he was even 7/1 for the Prix Morny last month. The market gave him a bit more respect on Saturday, as he was a strong 11/8 at the head of the market, but his performance was one of an odds on shott, and not a horse on the other side of even money.

Firstly, he stumbled a few strides after leaving the gates. We were all pretty sure that Willie Buick was going to hold him up anyway, and you can actually see him take a pull after they left the gates, but it was pretty noticeable that the horse took a bit of a false step. He lost lengths because of this, and Buick was then forced to make a decision. Either chance his arm and try to find a way through the pack, or gamble on the horse’s ability by pulling him right out and asking him for a huge effort.

The latter was chosen by the boy in blue, and that turned out into a brilliant move. Yes, it wasn’t the best Middle Park in the world, but both BRUSSELS and COPPULL are still pretty unexposed, and the latter shaped really nicely up the near side rail. Furthermore, the performance of BRUSSELS can be upgraded as, unlike COPPULL and WISE APPROACH, he was on the button throughout, and they did go quite hard from the front.

So, what will next season look like for WISE APPROACH? Could he be a Guineas horse, or is he all speed?

On ITV Racing, Appleby confirmed that they will be working back from the Commonwealth Cup next season, while Aidan O’Brien thinks that they’ll “have a look at a Classic with him (BRUSSELS)”. We imagine this means he won’t be the English Classic horse next year, but he could be one for Ireland or France.

BOYS VS GIRLS

Around this time of the season, every year, one can happily take a look at the current crop of two-year-olds with the Classic-tinted glasses on. A lot worse Cheltenham-related chat goes on from much further out, so let’s have a little glance, and there’s a good debate to be had about which crop of juveniles is better this year. The girls, or the boys?

Let’s start with the girls.

TRUE LOVE got the job done in the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes, and while all the TV pundits were talking about her as a potential 1000 Guineas horse for next year in the immediate aftermath, Aidan O’Brien was readying to tell the cameras that she’s a speedy horse for next year.

Interesting one this. She didn’t show “obvious” signs of tying up at the finish, she is a half-sister to the 1m1f winner LILY POND, and she is out of the 1m1f winner ALLURINGLY. However, she is by NO NAY NEVER, and although she wasn’t stopping, AMERICA QUEEN and ROYAL FIXATION were probably running on a little bit faster than her. Aidan O’Brien’s decision is fine, as she could easily do one or the other at a top level, but the boss of Ballydoyle does seem pretty set in his mindset for next year.
Whichever way you look at it, TRUE LOVE is a Group 2 Royal Ascot winner, a Group 1-placed filly, and now a Group 1 winner. On paper, that’s great form.

Then, look at the horses in behind her. If you watch the head-on camera at Newmarket on Saturday, ROYAL FIXATION and AMERICA QUEEN were a bit unbalanced in the dip, and yet they still ran very good races. They were probably a few pounds better than that, and they still finished close to the leaders. They could very easily be Guineas or Commonwealth Cup horses next season, and they are still potential Group 1 animals, if they train on.

And then, there’s HAVANA ANA, who ran a stormer to finish second.
She was a horse that we spoke about in this newsletter after her impressive Listed win at Naas in July, and after being beaten in a Group 3 in France, she continued her progress on Saturday. She is probably on the boat to the Breeders’ Cup, and she will have an each-way squeak.

Those are four very good fillies for the juveniles this season, and that’s without mentioning PRECISE and VENETIAN SUN, the 1-3 from the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes. That’s a pretty good squad.

And now, the boys.

The 2000 Guineas betting market consists of ALBERT EINSTEIN (haven’t seen since May), BOW ECHO (this unknown quantity), DISTANT STORM (impressive Group 3 Tattersalls Stakes winner), ZAVATERI (Eve’s wonder horse), and GSTAAD (runner-up to ZAVATERI in the National Stakes). There are some quite unexposed horses in that list, but the favourite is a horse who we know little of injury-wise, and that almost says enough.

If there was a complete standout performance from one of the boys this year, would they not be favourite?

We’re not trying to be too downbeat on them as there are some colts to be really excited by. BOW ECHO is one, as he is three from three, and he is now a Group 2 winner. He will be giving George Boughey and Billy Loughnane sleepless nights all winter, though maybe he could have been a touch more impressive in the final furlong of the Group 2 Royal Lodge Stakes?

Still, Boughey is very sweet on him, and rightly so. He said: "Bow Echo has a great attitude and for an inexperienced horse to go into a proper Group 2 and win like that was all we could have hoped for. He travelled well and has got so much pace. He's such a fast horse that we could have started him over six furlongs.

"Billy gave him a lovely ride. He allowed him to relax early and I was keen for him to do it the right way around. We could have been forward and made a test of it, but he has a nice turn of foot and he showed that. 

"He had a gallop here the other day, which brought him on, and he's still a very raw animal, but potentially a very good one. We've had some nice fillies but he's head and shoulders above any colt we've trained."

Who do we think might be the better crop? The fillies potentially have a bit more proven form, and we’d just edge it to them.

WEEKEND EYE-CATCHERS

ACTION- SATURDAY NEWMARKET 13.50

ACTION was definitely an eye-catcher in the Group 2 Royal Lodge Stakes on Saturday, and on another day, he would have been a whole lot closer to BOW ECHO. The FRANKEL colt was off the bridle early in the one-mile contest, but he stuck on for pressure, and he had no room at the inn between the eventual winner and the backtracking PACIFIC AVENUE late-on. He clearly stays quite nicely, so we’d imagine he could get further next season. There is a lot of untapped potential still under the bonnet, and he could well progress nicely with a winter of rest.

ERZINDJAN - SATURDAY 15.40 NEWMARKET

The obvious handicap eye-catcher from Saturday from ERZINDJAN, and it simply comes down to draw bias. On a day where the fields for the Group races came down the near side, BOILING POINT went and won the Cambridgeshire Handicap on the far rail. INDALO and FORT GEORGE followed him on the far side, but ERZINDJAN was the only one to make notable inroads up the near side. He’s a veteran of the game now, but he’s slipped right down in the handicap, and he could get off nicely by the handicapper as he was beaten one-and-a-half lengths.

RISK ON

We have a theory. The Tregoning stable has been more than quiet this year. Embarrassingly so. Has the old boy lost it…or is it by design? Operating at a measly 3% strike rate, Marcus has only had 3 winners this season. That said, he’s only run a modest number of horses though (27 horses totalling 87 runs combined) and interestingly his entries have really ramped up this week and next. Is he about to unleash a load of very well handicapped horses?

On a day where the racing is not very exciting, we’re going to chance some small money on our theory based on the fact historically Tregoning lands all his winners in August, September and October (his strike rate in these months is close to 3x better than the seasonal average of 11%).

15.20 RECEDING & 16.30 AL KHAWANEEJ

Single on RECEDING who looks a plot (massive positive that he’s a gelding against 4 fillies!) and small double. 10’s.

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