Equinties - heir to the throne

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BGP Capital
March 27, 2025

Equinties

Gm Equinauts

We were at Kempton last night (to support friends who had a runner in silks that will be familiar to long term readers of this newsletter) and took a good look at SHAMEFUL in the pre’s. He was fat as a pig! In contrast to the Balding horse, who looked a little rabbit, SHAMEFUL was no where near ready. He’ll have taken a good blow after that race and should come on a lot and will really have to up his game next time out if he is to warrant they yards dreams of winning Group races with him.

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

SAVED FOR AINTREE

There are a number of horses who have been saved for Aintree for the sole reason that Cheltenham is very close to Aintree this year.

We said in yesterday’s newsletter that we’re surprised that so many Cheltenham runners are being targeted towards Liverpool, but even if they do run, there’s no guarantee that they will perform to their best ability given the nature of both prepping for and racing at Cheltenham.

Think about recent runners who have blown up at Aintree for this very reason; STAGE STAR in 2023; GREY DAWNING; GINNY’S DESTINY last year; and L’HOMME PRESSE in 2022. 

There are a few obvious horses who have missed Cheltenham in order to arrive in Merseyside fresh, notably GREY DAWNING and STAGE STAR (who are learning from previous mistakes), but there are a few more flying below the surface from trainers who are looking to pick up big prizes in the right conditions.

Ben Pauling is one. After MAMBONUMBERFIVE won the Adonis, he immediately said that the Triumph wouldn’t be for him, so he skipped the race and is now arriving at the 4-Y-O Hurdle as a fresh horse.

EAST INDIA DOCK is likely to not go to Aintree this year which just leaves him the task of taking on LULAMBA. Nicky Henderson’s juvenile is clearly talented, and Hendo said he has come out of Cheltenham very well, but there are no guarantees when it comes to these juveniles. At least LULAMBA has only had two runs this season, so he’s not already over-raced.

MABONUMBERFIVE is one Ben Pauling is looking forward to, and HANDSTANDS is obviously another based on his win over JANGO BAIE in the Scilly Isles.

However, of all the runners Pauling spoke about in this Racing TV interview, the one who is interesting to talk about is BAD. If the Gloucestershire-based trainer can get his owner, David Howden, on the phone (!), a discussion about whether they will run him in the Topham will happen.

Listening to Pauling, some of his quotes regarding a potential stab at the Topham were very interesting.

He said: “It would be an interesting shout to put Bad over an Aintree fence. He’s only 15 3 at a push – we know these fences don’t take the jumping they used to take; it’s whether or not he tries to jump them.

“If he tries to jump them properly, he’ll come unstuck because he’s not big enough to do that, so he’d have to take the top six inches with him, but if he did that, he’s going the right way.

“I’d say he’s got more up his sleeve.”

In as many words, he said he’s well-handicapped, but his size and his carefulness is the thing with him. Get him in the notebook for the Topham if he is declared.


JOSHING JOSEPH

We have a feeling that SCORTHY CHAMP is starting to become the ‘wise guys’ 2000 Guineas horse.

He’s already the fancy of one very popular Racing Post tipster, and with the news that Aidan O’Brien’s A-team are behind, he looks like an EW angle into the race.

He raced three times as a juvenile and his last win was a Group 1 against a subsequent Breeders’ Cup winner HENRI MATISSE, a subsequent Breeders’ Cup third AOMORI CITY, and the Superlative runner-up SEAGULLS ELEVEN.

Joseph O’Brien’s experience is training Newmarket Classic winners is probably against you if you’re a backer but his form is there and his and his pedigree backs it up - by rocket sire MEHMAS out of a mare who has produced Group winner KNIGHT.

He’ll head straight to Newmarket as O’Brien is happy to avoid the trials before the start of May.

He said: “Scorthy Champ is doing really good and training very well. He's wintered particularly well and we couldn't be happier with him. 

"We have the option of a couple of trials, and he's entered at Leopardstown this weekend, but the ground will probably be too soft for him, so I'd imagine we'll head straight to Newmarket. That's the way we're thinking at the moment."

Looking at the Guineas, you have to love his form boosted by the fact HENRI MATISSE beat AOMORI CITY again over in America.

Joseph O’Brien also gave a few updates on his other horses, notably COWARDOFTHECOUNTY who was a fairly sizeable talking horse last year.

He beat WHISTLEJACKET, a subsequent Group 1 winner, on debut but probably disappointed his connections over the rest of the season despite landing a Group 3 over in France. Joseph alluded to his physical development over the winter and as such, O’Brien is sticking to sprinting.

In an At The Races piece piece last week, he said:

“He’s a horse we’ve always been very fond of. He’s a big, rangy colt, the type that should do even better this year in physical terms. 

“The plan is to start him off in sprints, with the Committed Stakes at Navan on April 26th being his starting point and the Lacken Stakes at Naas on May 18th likely to be his next step after that. From there, we’ll look to Royal Ascot and unless his first two runs tell us something different, the Jersey Stakes looks a good target for him. He’s a horse we are excited about.”

Jersey Stakes it is. One to keep in the notebook.

Finally, PUTURHANDSTOGETHER, the Fred Winter winner, will take on LULAMBA in the Grade 1 at Aintree.

HEIR TO THE THRONE

While we’re talking about the Flat, remember British Champions Day?

KALPANA fought off an overnight drift in the market to win the Fillies and Mares Stakes quite impressively, capping off a brilliant season for Juddmonte and the horse.

They had just won the Arc with BLUESTOCKING ahead of British Champions Day, and then another mare went and rocked up with a winning effort at Ascot. At the time, there was chat from both the Andrew Balding camp and the Juddmonte camp that the owners could have a nice problem this season.


That problem was if these two mares meet at some point during the season, and if they didn’t, would you run both against each other in the Arc? That’s how much they think of KALPANA.

Well, that problem was put to bed pretty quickly when BLUESTOCKING was retired, so these hopes now rely on KALPANA and any younger improving Juddmonte-owned horses.


So, what’s next for KALPANA. Not quick to forget BLUESTOCKING, she is potentially going to follow the same route.

Juddmonte’s European racing manager Barry Mahon said: “Kalpana will be back, she’s in good shape and we might try to go the Bluestocking route with her and start off in the Middleton and head on to the Pretty Polly, all being well.”

She’s a horse with talent. We’re not overly sure of the form of her British Champions Day win, but she smashed up the boys at both Kempton and Hamilton. This year is quite big for her; she needs to prove that she can hang with the big boys.

RISK ON

Three seconds yesterday! Shitemare!

Other than the bumper bets, any further plays today will be posted to X @equinties

WE HAVE PAID THOUSANDS IN WINNING COMPETITION BETS THIS MONTH, SUBSCRIBE BELOW TO ENTER TODAYS BUMPER COMPETITION!

BUMPER

A disastrous set of bumper previews yesterday, time to dust down and look at Southwell’s and Warwick’s with a clear head.

SOUTHWELL

SERVICE MINIMUM heads this girls market for Dan Skelton - shock! If it’s not big Dan, it’s Ben Pauling... And Pauling has the second fave! This girl has had two runs to date, both credible but she bumped into a Fehily horse last time out so you’d think they know if they have her covered with ROCK SENSATION, or not, as the case may be.

We know they really like ROCK SENSATION. She completely blew her lid first time out last year so she needs to settle today. She will be ridden cold and try pick the off down the straight one by one. She must be frustrating for them - big engine with a hot head, you might not see her true potential today.

SCAVENGERS REIGN has a lovely pedigree for this sort of race. Big flat pedigree dam side and James Owen can train them. Alright form in the copybook already but she cocked her head at Newcastle looking very green. If she’s improved for that she can be a big player today.

MISTY SUNRISE reps Olly Murphy, another trainer who targets bumpers. Dam was a flat winner and there are some nice winners from the second dam. BLUE BRESIL the sire need no intro. Another player!

HARLEYS PRIDE has come from Ireland and is another with a flat oriented pedigree on the dam side albeit over shorter trips. If if she stays (she showed she did in Ireland) then she might play a part but admittedly does look like one for handicaps later.

MISS TINKERBELL, HARMONY HEIGHTS, GOODBUY DOLLY et al are all for later.

Verdict: To the eye, this is a tough heat but there is suspicion the Fehily syndicate think their mare ROCK SENSATION is a bit of a weapon. She didn’t show it last time when she blew up but if Callum Pritchard can settle her, then they think she can win. James Owens horse SCAVENGERS REIGN can place if not green!

WARWICK

This market is dominated by two horses, DUTCH CORNER and HEY BUDDY.

DUTCH CORNER is a half to the mighty YORKHILL. Now, before you get too carried away, YORKHILL does have other siblings who have don absolutely nothing. That said, this lad was picked up for a big price as a foal and he’s now 4yo so his physical appearance must have some pull. The market will determine whether this lad holds the ability of his older half brother, you’d think he’d go offer shorter than 9/4 if he does.

HEY BUDDY reps JJ and the Rooneys. The Rooney’s only buy good horses so just from the silks, this lad should be feared. Strong sire side, weak immediate dam side. Money key for this one.

LIAM MERA KAI reps Greatrex who isn’t a reliable trainer. We’ve never heard of the sire but the grandsire is machine maker AUTHORIZED (think TIGER ROLL). Dam side is weird; second dam produced NH horses but this lad is a half to a 5f horse. No idea here but there has been some money for him!

NOT AT THAT PRICE wasn’t an expensive 2yo but was sold a year before his full sister won a Listed bumper. If he’s anything like his sister then he could be good and prove a bargain buy for his connections.

Ignoring the fact Weston’s bumper runner ran a stinker yesterday, NORTHERN NESTOR could be a bit better today- he’s out of a bumper winner for Willie Mullins.

Of the rest, QUEENS GINGER is out of a bumper winning mare for Honeyball. A mare so she gets her weight allowance but will need to be good to beat the boys today.

Verdict: Tempted to go with Skelton’s DUTCH CORNER in this - surely YORKHILL couldn’t have been a one hit wonder for his mare!? There is telling money for Greatrex’s but we don’t like backing the yards horses. If Skelton’s drifts, he’s not winning!

For the comp, we’ll go with another double today!

COMPETITION BET: we’ll place £100 on the ROCK SENSATION and DUTCH CORNER double paying £1100 profit for someone to win should they oblige!