Equinties - the machine

Gm Equinauts

Chepstow passed it’s inspection today and it should play host to some enjoyable racing, none more so than their first race.

For a race we’re not betting, we can’t wait to watch the Chepstow opener and see how WILD NEPHIN runs. He was quickly pulled up before the third(!) hurdle last time out in a race which hit the headlines after a massive gamble was landed by Evan Williams’ yard (shock) on OWL OF ATHENS, ridden by WILD NEPHIN’s regular rider Conor Ring.

To the eye, the horse was travelling perfectly fine… as in, more than perfectly.

It was all a bit stinky.

Was WILD NEPHIN stopped early by connections, knowing they could beat the gamble and so saved him for the win today? There’ll be a big BING BONG if he does,

but surely Ryan Potter isn’t brazen enough, or even daft enough to think he can get away with it today.

We imagine WILD NEPHIN will be saved for a another day.

Let’s dive in.

HEADINE ROUND UP

MAUGHREEN ON THE MACHINE

We’ve voiced our opinion on the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle for a while, and that general opinion is that the picture is quite murky. You may have thought that success from MAUGHREEN, the ante-post favourite, would have cleared that up a bit yesterday, but it did far from that.

Let’s start with the positives, there are several.

She won and that win came after a long layoff, on seasonal debut. She travelled very well until the final hurdle, and she picked up from a lazy jump over the last flight readily, job done.

As always, Racing X was divided, many not enamoured by her victory. There is just a small question mark about her emptying, notably approaching the last and the form of the race might be questionable.

FAMILIAR DREAMS, a Grade 3 bumper winner now sporting the silks of Qatar Racing, underperformed, but this was half to be expected as Gordon Elliott’s yard is arguably not firing on all cylinders.

The rest of the field was much of a muchness, but that’s what you always get in these Irish maiden hurdles, especially ones limited to mares.

Immediately after the race, Paddy Power went 7/4 about her – which certainly excited the Racing Blogger – but they quickly pushed her back out to 3/1 where she can be backed now.

So, will she be winning a Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle?

Well, the first thing to do is look at the potential opposition. SIXANDAHALF did something very similar at Fairyhouse earlier this month. She had to be encouraged a bit more than MAUGHREEN, but she saw out her run with more power and the second, QUALIMITA, isn’t a bad horse. (Interestingly, Mullins had the odds-on KIMI DE MAI finish 16 lengths back in third, so they’ll be able to cross reference MAUGHREEN on her ability when comparing to SIXANDAHALF).

SIXANDAHALF also has more experience having raced seven times on the Flat and once in a bumper compared to MAUGHREEN’s two public appearances.

Furthermore, if you watched Mullins’ post-race interview about MAUGHREEN, you wouldn’t have been blown away by his comments. It’s easy to read too much into interviews, granted, but lines like “hopefully she’ll improve from that” and “I did get a bit worried after the last” wouldn’t fill you with too much confidence.

She did jump well though, so returning to two miles at Cheltenham will be fine. She’s a more-than-fine favourite, but she’s certainly no certainty, and there are ways to take her on.

A GOOD RACE

We do hope Sandown goes ahead this weekend. They have already floated up the idea of an all-chase card unless their hurdles course passes its inspection on Thursday at 8am, but either way, we hope the Grade 1 Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase goes ahead.

In most years, the race can be a bit dull. Well, GERRI COLOMBE and L’HOMME PRESSE feature on the roll of honour in recent renewals, but the race L’HOMME PRESSE won was awful and GERRI COLOMBE managed to grind out a win against BALCO COASTAL and THUNDER ROCK. So, why is this weekend’s race different?

IMPAIRE ET PASSE. JANGO BAIE. KALIF DU BERLAIS. HANDSTANDS. ONLY BY NIGHT. SEARCH FOR GLORY. MARK OF GOLD. Bar maybe the final two mentioned there, that’s a superb list of runners for a race away from the big festivals.

Last week, Anthony Bromley, racing manager to the owners of IMPAIRE ET PASSE, said: “I imagine Willie will stay on home soil, he has five or six in the race and I imagine he will run all of them.”

He also said that the entry for the Scilly Isles was “just to give him another option”, but news from none other than Nicky Henderson on Saturday might have revealed the true plans for IMPAIRE ET PASSE.

He told reporter Ash Symonds: “Impaire Et pasee is almost certainly going to Sandown – well. I know JJ Slevin is coming to Sandown.”

Now, of course, Henderson doesn’t train the horse, but the info that Slevin is coming to Sandown instead of staying in Leopardstown for the DRF is very, very interesting. If he comes over, a clash against the super impressive JANGO BAIE and the steady improver KALIF DU BERLAIS would make anyone’s mouth water. Add the facile Towton Novices’ Chase winner HANDSTANDS into the mix and that’s a proper race.

Furthermore, what about ONLY BY NIGHT? She looked rather smart at Cork and putting MIRAZUR WEST away on chase debut by over six lengths raised a few eyebrows. Depending on if/how she runs on the weekend, she could very much be a player for the Mares’ Chase in March. Bold shout, but one we’re happy to make.

HUNTING HEWICK

As previously alluded to, it is the DRF this weekend. We must admit, the DRF is a good show most years, though this year might just lack that classy novice to shout about.

FACILE VEGA, GAELIC WARRIOR, FACT TO FILE, and BALLYBURN were some of the high-profile runners last year, and they provided great talking opportunities. This season, BALLYBURN has questions to answer, the two-mile Grade 1 novice hurdle is fairly open and so is the juvenile hurdle.

Still, FINAL DEMAND looks exciting and MAJBOROUGH could put on a nice show to potentially shake up the March markets.

The Irish Gold Cup is the headline attraction, but we don’t actually know how large the field will be. Last year, GALOPIN DES CHAMPS and FASTORSLOW took on two other rivals, but there’s a good chance we could get each-way betting for three places this weekend.

Whether FACT TO FILE can reverse the Christmas form is up for debate, but the contest looks like it could be without HEWICK if (shock) this week’s rain hits the track. Conditions are good to yielding currently, but rain is expected today so that could just keep things on the slower side of yielding which is something the former American Grand National winner doesn’t appreciate.

Trainer Tara Lee Cogan said: "Hewick came out of Leopardstown well. It probably wasn't his ideal conditions but he ran well. "The plan is to run Saturday but it's ground dependent and we want to run him at Cheltenham, so we don't want to bottom him out either. We'll have to wait and see as there's some rain forecast. We've always maintained we don't want to run him on soft or heavy ground over fences."

This seems to be a common thing with HEWICK. He gets ready for a big race, rain hits, and he doesn’t run. So, what could you do with him? Maybe you’ve got to box clever? Keep him at home over the winter, bring him back with the Punchestown Gold Cup as the main aim, and if that doesn’t go well, a mark of 163 wouldn’t be too bad in either a Galway Plate or Kerry National. Tough one. We don’t envy connections.

RISK ON

13.55 ASCENDING LARK

Quoted by Derham to have shown next to nothing when he got her in training but then finally turned a corner when they were close to giving up. She has looked good in her last two victories and she’s brilliantly bred. Derham’s runners have been going close and this girl should be able to get him his first winner for a while trusting she’s ready after a lay off.

15.52 KUPKA VALLIS

Lovely slop at Chepstow today but the card is really tough. LIVINGIT DU LARGE was probably worth another try given his pedigree but is too short now. At a bigger price, KUPKA VALLIS’ pedigree is worth a small speccy play at a drifting 10’s. The trainer is good at getting his horses ready and that often means plenty of run’s where they’re looked after, so this drift is bearish but she is by far the best bred in this weak race. Small stakes here.

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