Equinties - champion of champions

Gm Equinauts

This newsletter has had a good time of it recently winning with MARCHE D’ALIGRE at evens Wednesday, MELINDA at 7’s Thursday, OPEC at 11/2 Friday, INAPROPRIATE 7/1 Saturday and MORNING AIR at evens yesterday.

INAPROPRIATE felt particularly good given we beat perhaps the shortest price of the day in LAVENDER HILL MOB but we’re not sure if it was simply a top drawer pedigree pick by us,

or we got damn lucky owed to very strict trainers instructions.

Some thoughts from punters on Racing X suggest it may have been the latter:

Whether the ride was calculated or not, we don’t care because we’d never back his pedigree in a proper race anyway and more, we won!

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

THE CHAMPION OF CHAMPIONS

Could we have a Champion Hurdle for the ages this season?

Of course, the division has largely evolved around CONSTITUTION HILL in recent years, but it’s a fair comment to make that even if he were to miss the Cheltenham Festival this season, the championship two-mile hurdling event of the campaign would likely still be the most watched race in March.

Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you’ll know what’s happened this weekend, but let us try and dissect the action.

Let’s start with Saturday’s winner SIR GINO. With the Old Hennessy being nothing more than an average handicap, the Fighting Fifth was the race of the day and all racing fans wanted to know was if SIR GINO was the real deal, his first proper test.

The money certainly had an opinion on him. SIR GINO drifted markedly all morning, out to second fave, as if the market no lost faith in Nicky Henderson. ‘He’s beaten up nothing more than a knackered Constitution Hill‘ and ‘we’re siding with Willie over Mullins’ was the literally translation of that drift.

Punters love not using their eyes, as they don’t even own a set. Perhaps it’s why there is so few successful ones. They wanted tried to be cool and shrewd, betting’s equivalent of edgy, by siding with the Irish raider, just like the way idiots did in SKYJACK HIJACK’s race only hours before.

Now, this isn’t a we’re better than you, look at our shiny trumpet moment, because we made our feelings quite clear.

But there was absolutely ZERO reason to take on SIR GINO. He’d been flawless and as such leathered the field on the bridle to remain unbeaten.

Lo and behold he is STILL not favourite for the Champion Hurdle. Okay, maybe that’s because there is a chance CONSITUTION HILL will return to form and SIR GINO will go back to the once intended route of larger obstacles - that’s a huge risk to consider for ante-post punters but we think he should be favourite.

Instead, the market are doing what the always do and backing the Irish.

Enter LOSSIEMOUTH.

She certainly made an impression in the Grade 1 Hatton’s Grace Hurdle:

You can tell by the number of likes, retweets, quote tweets, and separate tweets on X yesterday that the performance was well-loved.

She made a bit of a mistake at the fourth-last when very keen under Paul Townend, but she regained the ground lost quite quickly, and the fat lady began to sing as they turned for home.

It was a really nice performance considering that she was pretty keen for the majority of the race, but that was to be expected. She did something similar in the Triumph, yet she still bolted up that day.

To be able to do that over 2m4f against a thorough stayer should be commended, which we suppose is why she is current 7/4 fave for the Champion Hurdle but we wouldn’t have her at 7/4. The stayers has recently been a weak affair with TEAHUPPO a champ in name only (and he’ll probably go on to win next years Stayers in March only because there is nothing for him to beat).

The real test of LOSSIEMOUTH’s ability would have been the one Mullins was quick to avoid, a fight against STATE MAN. And yes, we’d have sided with LOSSIE MOUTH - we made our feelings clear for that one.

Who would we back if STATE MAN, LOSSIEMOUTH and SIR GINO line up in March?

SIR GINO.

But regardless of result, if those three line up, it WILL BE a race for the ages which is why March can’t come quick enough.

CONSTITUTION HILL adds even more excitement. His return would mean SIR GINO won’t line up in the Champion Hurdle, but that’s only because Sevenbarrows wouldn’t need him to - if we can tweet ‘he’s back’ after the Christmas Hurdle, nothing beats him. But that’s a big ‘if’.

We’re desperate to see him line up again soon, hopefully for the Christmas Hurdle, but we’re not sure that’s going to happen.

NICHOLLS CHASING THE DREAM

NEPTUNE COLLONGES - the horse that gave Paul Nicholls his first and, so far, only success in the Grand National. He wants a second.

A few weeks ago, the master of Ditcheat highlighted BRAVEMANSGAME as a potential horse for the season-defining race, though after Saturday, he could have another to send to Aintree.

That’s because KANDOO KID won the Coral Gold Cup and all the right horses finished closely behind him.

The hype horse, BROADWAY BOY, was second, the well-backed VICTTORINO flew home to finish third, the French raider GENERAL EN CHEF was fourth, and HENRY’S FRIEND, a Grade 2 novice chase winner, was in fifth.

So, on the face of it, his one-and-three-quarter-length win looks good at this early stage.

In the post-script, Nicholls did a fair bit of trumpeting, notably by mentioning that he landed an ante-post bet on the horse winning the Coral Gold Cup.

But he also explained why he had the bet in the first place. His gallop at Newbury on the Coral Gold Cup gallops morning was so good that apparently “Nico said he couldn't pull him up after the gallop the other week” (according to his owner Michael Geoghegan) and he was unexposed over the trip.

However, it was still his first run of the season, so he is entitled to come on for it a bit.

He was rated 145 on the weekend, but the handicapper will give him more than enough to end up at Aintree, so he’s another one to add to the potential Grand National list alongside TRELAWNE, CHIANTI CLASSICO, IROKO, BRAVEMANSGAME, and more.

As for another Paul Nicholls-trained chaser to mention, CALDWELL POTTER got his chasing career off to a good start.

He was exuberant at his fences, but he was actually quite economical and yes, the field wasn’t amazing (hence his price), but it’s a solid start and he’ll surely go on from here.

WEEKEND EYE-CATCHERS

ASTA LA PASTA – FRIDAY 12.45 NEWBURY

KALIF DU BERLAIS was a nice winner of the novices’ handicap chase on Friday and will go on to much better things.

The race could be worth watching going forward as ASTA LA PASTA will surely improve for a step up in trip.

He doesn’t jump at the correct speed for two miles as he steadied himself into a few fences down the home straight on Friday.

But still, he was given an easy ride from Harry Skelton and he even gave one pound away to the winner KALIF DU BERLAIS.

He’ll improve this season.

DEMNAT – SATURDAY 12.40 NEWBURY

Firstly Venetia Williams’ DEMNAT was sent off fav for the Sir Peter O’Sullevan on Saturday and he ran a very creditable race to finish third.

He’s an interesting horse as his first run for the stable came in February 2024 off a 961-day break having raced in France in 2020 and 2021.

That win came on soft and he won on very soft over in France, so the better conditions at Newbury on Saturday probably wasn’t his bag.

He’ll come on for the run and he is a full brother to the Grade 1 winner SCEAU ROYAL, so he’ll improve from his mark very soon. Softer ground will work as well.

THE CHANGING MAN - SATURDAY 15.20 NEWCASTLE

Tipped up by our new hire Norm Saturday, we started to celebrate too early as despite him looking an easy winner two out, he fluffed the last and lost out to the more fluent FRERO BANBOU.

He has a huge pot in him this season and will prove well handicapped when he cant string it all together.

RISK ON

We had a bet or two lined up for the slop at Ffos Las but it has been abandoned. We’ll wait for another day.

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