Equinties - the long game

Gm Equinauts

Is Paul Nicholls playing the long game with BRAVEMANSGAME?

Stinks of it!

Let’s dive in.

HEADINE ROUND UP

MARES’ CHASE

We’ve kept our eyes on the Mares’ Chase division for a few months because, well, it’s one of the easiest divisions to work out potential runners.

The novice hurdles fall into Willie Mullins bingo, the open-grade chasers have minimal chances of beating GALOPIN DES CHAMPS or JONBON, and you’ve got no chance of finding the winners of the Champion Bumper, Hunters’ Chase, and Cross Country at this stage.

The Mares’ Chase attracts novices and open-grade contenders to Prestbury Park over 2m4f on what is invariably their first Cheltenham start of the season. This weekend, three horses staked their claims for the race, so let’s look at them.

ONLY BY NIGHT is a horse we’ve spoken about a few times so far this season. She was entered for the Scilly Isles last weekend but swerved to come to the Listed Agatha Christie Mares’ Novices’ Chase at Exeter instead.

She won, but it was tight at the end. KILBARRY SAINT chased her home, but ultimately, she didn’t look like losing, and because of the fairly small winning margin, bookmakers held her price between 6-8/1.

So, did she enhance or damage her reputation? Well, first thing to note is the finishing position of FUN FUN FUN. She was 16 lengths back in fourth having taken ONLY BY NIGHT on for much of the contest. The two well-fancied Irish raiders started slow, but after a few furlongs, they were at each other’s throats.

Because of this, they pressed well clear of the field from quite a way out. Now, ONLY BY NIGHT, who was giving 7lbs away, was able to maintain her effort to win despite idling, whereas FUN FUN FUN came off the bridle early and faded away.

Considering they were clocking 30-32mph mid-race with their three rivals in a different postcode compared to 25-28mph over the line, one can assume they were going hard.
So, that’s a positive to ONLY BY NIGHT. Sometimes, winning margins can deceive, and it looks like it has here.

She will need to learn to do a bit less mid-race if she is to win a Mares’ Chase at Cheltenham. Maybe they could sit her off the pace and let her pass rivals, especially over 2m4f on the New Course.

But, on the whole, the performance was nice.

On Saturday, DINOBLUE beat stablemate ALLEGORIE DE VASSY at Naas in the Listed Opera Hat Mares Chase, and both horses are going to Cheltenham.

Look, two nice performances from two nice mares. Solid sectionals, solid jumping, and solid finish. ALLEGOIE DE VASSY will appreciate the step up in trip at Cheltenham, but she is a very in-and-out mare, so that should be considered if backing her for Cheltenham.

DINOBLUE would maybe be a worry for the distance of the Mares’ Chase, but they are two nice chances.

DAMNED DENMAN

That Denman Chase was weird, wasn’t it? HITMAN, the apparent Nicholls second string, finished ahead of BRAVEMANSGAME, and DJELO, untested at three miles, won comfortably.

Let’s start with our old friend, BRAVEMANSGAME. He underperformed again. It’s quite simple, he’s still a lovely race horse - he jumped cleanly and travelled well for most of the race but just isn’t at the top anymore.

Unless he’s being handicapped!?

We’re going to speculate here but allow us. Paul Nicholls has had the Grand National on his mind for a while, so would he want to ruin his mark for the National Weights release on Tuesday?

Could he, instead, run BMG from the front, force a bit of a pace, and allow him to plug on in his own time? He is a bit of a bridle-merchant, if you will – so as soon as he gets headed, he doesn’t really have that turn of foot to keep with them.

On Saturday, he forced the pace alongside SAM BROWN (4th) with ELDORADO ALLEN (7th) and FUGITIF (6th) on their hindquarters. The winner, DJELO, came off the pace and so did HITMAN. Maybe they went a bit harder than usual which set the race up for the late closers?

Of course, BRAVEMANSGAME isn’t at his best currently. But, and this may be unpopular with the Nicholls-hating section of Racing X, but maybe PFN knows what he’s doing?

His yard is under a minor cloud currently, so why not honestly try and shave a few pounds off BRAVEMANSGAME’s mark for the National weights reveal and hope the yard is a bit more back for April.

A mark like 154 could look very intriguing in two months’ time, and it would be the final roll of the dice for him. NEPTUNE COLLONGES won the Nash off 157 having been rated 168 12 months prior. BMG was rated 170 for the 2024 Gold Cup and 172 after his ‘heyday’ in 2023.

Anyway, DJELO was nice. He was an uncertain stayer pre-race, but he did it nicely and his Ryanair chances are back after a below-par effort at Windsor. His win also gives a nice compliment to PROTEKTORAT in the Ryanair.

Will HITMAN win another race ever again? He runs too well for his own good, so he won’t drop in the handicap and he’ll struggle to beat rivals like these. Poor fella.

PANIC ATTACK - SATURDAY 15.48 WARWICK

Dan Skelton went on Luck On Sunday yesterday and said that PANIC ATTACK would probably be his best handicap chance at the Cheltenham Festival, and we can see why.
Admittedly, we think he might struggle for one this year, but this nine-year-old mare is being given a chance by Skelton as she ran over hurdles on the weekend.

She finished second to the useful IRISH HILL and she probably should have passed him, but the winner was game in front.
She’s going to the Plate and she’s a bit of a different type to a usual Skelton Cheltenham handicap plot. Based on her Windsor win two starts ago, she must have a chance.

PIC ROC - SATURDAY 16.10 NEWBURY

We think this three-mile novices’ handicap chase at Newbury will be a race to follow going forward, and PIC ROC was a bit unlucky to finish second.

LORD OF THUNDER is a horse we’ve highlighted as an eye-catcher before, so we think PIC ROC has run into a nice one, but he still gave him a good run for his money at the end. He jumped the last ahead, but he jumped to his left and, as most of you know, you have to edge slightly right on the Newbury run-in to avoid the water jump.
A well-handicapped LORD OF THUNDER beat him in the end, but PIC ROC was nice over hurdles last season, so he’s a horse to follow.

RISK ON

We think we have a couple of bets for today, they will be posted to X @Equinties

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