Equinties - gambles in March

Gm Equinauts

Let’s dive in.

HEADINE ROUND UP

GAMBLES IN MARCH

We talk a lot about gambles in this newsletter, because let’s be honest, they run the game (which is why the BHA need to start waking the f*ck up with all the betting restrictions going on now). Trip hikes, a change of going, first time over fences or just good old fashioned stopping - there are more ways than one to skin a cat.

Most gambles take place in lowly races in order to increase the chances of actually pulling it off. But what about Cheltenham gambles? Takes some fairly massive nuts and of course, a bloody good horse to execute that.

Because of the fascination of landing a gamble on the worlds biggest racing stage, racing fans on X get easily attached to a ‘sexy’ Graded horse veiled as an Irish handicapper. Every one wants to be on one, whether they’re truly a ‘Graded horse in a handicap’ or not!

This years horse that fits that bill and will carry the hopes and dreams of thousands is KOPECK DE MEE.

So, who is he? He’s had five runs in France for Joel Boisnard, but JP McManus reached into his pocket in 2024 to purchase him for Willie Mullins.

According to the French racing experts on Twitter, he’s a real nice one, and he’s been on the radar for a while but, of course, he’s turned into a bit of a talking horse because he now reps the Mullins/McManus partnership and the non-French racing experts have cottoned on like they are loyal fans.

So, what about his credentials for a Cheltenham Festival handicap - can he go and win?

It’s firstly interesting that he’s been kept off the track for so long. May 8th, 2024 was his last outing, and although Mullins is a master, it would be a fair effort to get him to win at the Festival off a 10 month break, but out of all the trainer in the world, Wizard Willie is the man to do it.

Secondly, his rating could be 136 if the BHA lift his French rating word-for-word, though that is no guarantee. Who really knows if he’s well-handicapped based off this, but just for reference, if a few French racing nerds thought he was better than BUNTING (rated 135), he could have a few pounds up his sleeve.

Do we think he can truly win? We think the time off the track, plus the occasion of Cheltenham, and the nature of a big-field handicap will be tough to take on the chin all at once and that’s on top of the fact the horse will have had to acclimatise to a complete change of scenery - it cannot be overstated how much changes affect horses.

More, his pedigree isn’t one we can quickly get behind. He’d be a complete anomaly in his page should he be a 130 horse - there is absolutely nothing in it to suggest he is.

Still, he’s certainly the Racing X horse of Cheltenham 2025, and he will provide heightened interest to any race he competes in and at this stage, we’ll be taking advantage of the market move to find value elsewhere.

THE NICHOLLS CHANCE

Paul Nicholls has had an interesting time of things recently. It’s been well-documented that he isn’t having a great season, and things like his sourcing of horses are being investigated and adjusted accordingly.

Grade 1 success with PIC D’ORHY on Saturday probably meant an awful lot to him, but things are still bad.

The boss of Ditcheat is set to have his pre-Cheltenham Festival media day on Monday, and this year’s press huddle could be the quickest of all time.

We reckon the main questions will be as followed. How’s JUBILEE ALPHA? Is CALDWELL POTTER going to the novices’ handicap chase? Does NO DRAMA THIS END actually have a Champion Bumper chance?

Let’s stick with the first one because, honestly, JUBILLE ALPHA is his best chance of a winner all week.

She’s no certainty, that’s for sure, but she has a fair chance in what is a competitive Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle. MAUGHREEN, KAROLINE BANBOU, and SIXANDAHALF will be stern opposition, but JUBILEE ALPHA warrants her place in the contest.

She has looked good all season, and the form of her Windsor race got a boost yesterday from BLUEY, the second, who bolted up to beat the useful SIOG GEAL comfortably Market Rasen yesterday.

This was a nice performance from BLUEY. Travelled nicely, jumped well, and showed a nice turn of foot. So, if JUBILEE ALPHA put her away so easily at Windsor, that must be a form boost.

As for BLUEY, she has a few nice races in mind, and Cheltenham could also be for her.
Emma Lavelle said: “She’s in at Cheltenham and after today I’m not going to rule that out at all.

“One of the reasons for coming here was to get her qualified for the Mares’ EBF Final at Newbury; that’s on the same day as the Herring Queen Series Final up at Kelso which she’s also qualified for so we’ve got three nice options on the table.

“In fairness, the Herring Queen Is £100,000 and that’s a mares’ novice handicap, the Cheltenham race is £105,000 and that’s going to be more competitive and then you’ve got £55,000 at Newbury.”

BLUEY is a nice horse, and her win gives a nice nod to JUBILEE ALPHA. Things are stacking up in favour of Nicholls’ mare even if Racing X would have you believe he is gone at the game.

GOOD FORM ALREADY

There was a nice bumper winner yesterday for the Twisters and most of you were on - you’re welome.

UN SENS A LA VIE is the horse’s name, and he galloped away under Sam Twiston-Davies to win at 5/2, beating race-fit rivals ESPRESSO MILAN and FORWARD THINKING in the process. Easy.

Of course, who knows what this horse could go on to be, but he’s in the right silks and, as much as a few may disagree, he’s in the right hands.

But, why are we bringing this up?

Well, even though yesterday was his rules debut, he already has some nice form lines to highlight going forward.

In his first PtP, he finished second to THEFLYINGKING and KIWI RUSH. The latter is trained by Harry Derham and won a nice Kelso bumper the other day and the former has finished second in two bumpers for KTDA Racing (ROMEO COOLIO colours) and Gordon Elliott since.

On his next PtP start, UN SENS A LA VIE beat BRAS D’OR and COSMOS D’AINAY. The latter went on to win a PtP and is now also in the ownership of KTDA Racing for Gordon Elliott.

As much as British bumper horses in recent years can but be anything, but almost never are anything, he looks like a smart one based on the early sprouting of form shown so far and his excellent work at home.

RISK ON

A brilliant day yesterday with a NAP winner and successfully levering the price on our Cheltenham bet MAUGHREEN. Today we like a couple of horses but will post them on X @Equinties.

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