Equinties - Mundi musings

Gm Equinauts

Even on a weekend plagued by frozen ground and cancellations, Racing X still found a way to split hairs over a Cheltenham Festival ante-post favourite. You guessed it, we’re talking about SALVATOR MUNDI.

Let’s dive in.

HEADINE ROUND UP

CONTEXT IS KEY

From “worst fave of the Festival” to “he’s got a seriously massive engine”, there was a large array of opinions fired out about his success in yesterday’s Grade 2 Moscow Flyer, but what do we think?

Yes, his jumping certainly needs work. He wasn’t at all fluent in the second half of the contest and that ultimately cost him lengths every time but, it’s hard not to be impressed from the way he travelled throughout the race and then his big finish. On bad ground after a long lay-off with a hood, tongue tie, and (as subsequently discovered) a wind-op, he looked relaxed throughout.

Even when Paul Townend got low in the saddle around the bend, it didn’t look like a strong drive, it just looked like a calm, cajoling drive from to simply make sure to net off the deficit lost from his jumping.

We can poo-poo performances on Racing X as much as the next man but only when necessary. We won’t here. Bear in mind this year’s Supreme wouldn’t look out of place at Sedgefield. Maybe that’s an exaggeration, but it’s not a great year on paper, and he demonstrated clear ability yesterday. Considering that JEROPOAM MACHIN, a horse who had a career-threatening injury after the DRF last year, is the sixth favourite, you know it’s a fairly weak race in terms of depth.

No, we are not saying 3/1 is a price to bet, we’re not even trying to say that 3/1 is warranted but, comparing him being favourite to TULLYHILL being fav for last year’s Supreme is like night and day.

TULLYHILL wasn’t up to winning last year, as his result proved; but there is an argument to suggest SAVATOR MUNDI can win this years. Context is key. He’s absolutely no certainty, but he’s no back marker in the line up either.

Anyway, is it straight to Cheltenham for SALVATOR MUNDI? Probably.

Patrick Mullins said: “The engine is massive. After a half mile I thought this horse could not win on his first run in six months pulling like that on heavy ground. Obviously, because he was keen and Paul didn’t want to let him jump he didn’t jump so he had every reason to get beaten and still won.

“There should be a lot of improvement there. We’ll see how he comes out of today but I wouldn’t be surprised if he went straight to Cheltenham. We’re not worried about his jumping.”

A run at the DRF would arguably do him the world of good, but at the same time, if he is this talented horse as hyped up by the yard, who will only run next at Cheltenham, you’ll get a bigger price.

NO TRIP TO PRESTBURY

As for us Brits, our action was tame across the weekend. HANDSTANDS won the Grade 2 Tolworth Novices’ Chase, and the market knew the outcome before the race – the odds delivered.

He did it impressively and that is worth plenty of credit. We’ve said before about how much Joe Tizzard thinks of LORD OF THUNDER, so having him in second is no disgrace.

SAINT DAVY, CHERIE D’AM (very disappointing) and HILLCREST departed from the race at the third-last, but they were beaten by the time they fell.

Ben Pauling really does have a strong team of horses, and his novice chase squad is a big part of that. With THE JUKEBOX MAN set to head straight to the Brown Advisory, it did initially pose the question of ‘where next’ for HANDSTANDS but that was cleared up post-race.

Pauling said: “The Scilly Isles was always the plan and Ben [Jones, jockey] said he was fresh as a daisy coming in, which is good. If he’s fit and well over the next few days, and if he’s in the same bit of form then 100 per cent he’ll go to Sandown.

"He wasn’t himself when he turned up at Cheltenham last year and I don’t think it’s necessarily on his agenda this year. He’s more likely to go to Aintree, and that’s mainly the owners preference over mine.

"It’s not that I don’t think he’s good enough. If we’re going to go to Sandown then he would have had a busy period up to Cheltenham and that bit of extra time before Aintree would see him to his best."

This seems a sensible move. He would have enough experience to go to Cheltenham, but THE JUKEBOX MAN is probably classier and why not save one for Aintree? He goes there without a Cheltenham run and could maybe catch a few out. Like it, and we like the horse.

WEEKEND EYE-CATCHERS

MIDNIGHT IT IS – FAIRYHOUSE 13.45 SATURDAY

Gavin Cromwell landed a nice touch when firing in a 1-2-3 in the feature handicap at Fairyhouse on Saturday. The first two home were nice, but MIDNIGHT IT IS certainly caught the eye third. Sean Flanagan positioned him out the rear of the field and he was eighth when jumping the second-last, yet he flew home through runners and was doing his best at the line. He’s fairly unexposed as he started 2023 off a mark of 104, yet he ran off 132 on Saturday. He can continue to improve, and he wouldn’t mind stepping up in trip.

ASIAN MASTER – FAIRYHOUSE 14.18 SATURDAY

Yes, we’re buying into it, but ASIAN MASTER could be a horse for a Cheltenham Festival handicap. We think it’ll be the new 2m4f novices’ handicap chase having had two runs over fences so far this season, though he has plenty of experience from the point-to-point scene. Now, we don’t know whether his run at Tipperary in a novice hunter chase in May 2023 means he’s had three runs under rules over fences, but even if he’s had just the two, he can get another run in before Cheltenham. Either way, he beat JIMMY DU SEUIL and BETTER DAYS AHEAD over hurdles before chasing home SLADE STEEL in the Supreme. That makes him potentially well-handicapped, and his run behind MAJBOROUGH on chase debut was also promising. He should handle the step up in trip just fine, and he should be tested in that new contest at Cheltenham. This isn’t a tip but more a note to make for the big days ahead.

GIANTSGRAVE - FFOS LAS 16.01 SATURDAY

We tipped him and we backed him big on Saturday - we knew his work at home upsides THE NEW LION was going to be the hidden form to beat and he delivered nicely.

It took him a while to get through all his gears but when he did, he motored past DOUGLAS HYDE easily down Ffos Las’ long home straight, picking his legs up nicely to suggest he’s going to be a strong, mud-loving chaser for the yard in the future. Certainly one to keep on side next season and beyond.

RISK ON

Exeter is on but it’s a poor card with bad horses running in depleted fields. We think Pauling’s could be smart in the bumper but we’re happy to just stick it up for someone to win the bumper competition, without serious investment ourselves.

No bets today.

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