Equinties - Christmas meeting day 1

Gm Equinauts

We’ve had the Newbury’s old Hennessy meeting, today it’s day 1 of Cheltenham’s Christmas meeting.

Who needs an advent calendar when you go just count down the days to Christmas with jumps racing!

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

EARLY CLASH

You may remember the 2022 Punchestown Festival. Nicky Henderson floated up the idea of CONSTITUTION HILL running in the Punchestown Champion Hurdle against the (at the time) unbeaten HONEYSUCKLE on the back of his impressive Supreme success, and we were all very excited. Paddy Power even offered up an extra incentive to Hendo and Michael Buckley if they sent their star over the Irish Sea.

And they put up the same incentive for HONEYSUCKLE’s connections.

But this wasn’t enough to get him over, and ultimately, we as racing fans were robbed of this clash.

She dropped off in quality and they never raced against each other. CONSTITUTION HILL would have beaten her, but it would have been one of those clashes for the ages. Now we live in a world where CONSTITUTION HILL is the uncertain one and another mare, this time LOSSIEMOUTH, is coming after him.

A lot of us hope we get to see them clash at Cheltenham in March, but could we see it sooner than that?

Rich Ricci, owner of the Mares Hurdle winner, says that the team are “leaning towards” running her in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton on Boxing Day. The feeling is that because she is the Champion Hurdle favourite, “you’re supposed to run in the Christmas Hurdle”.

This update comes five days after Nicky Henderson said: “I'm very pleased to report that all is well with Constitution Hill and he is now 100 per cent sound, which is obviously great news. “Lossiemouth is a mighty threat to all of them, she looked exceptional at the weekend, but as far as I’m concerned it’s all Seven Barrows guns blazing to Kempton and if anybody else wants to join in the Christmas party, they are more than welcome.

“If anyone wants to remind themselves of just how good he is, you’ve only got to watch the replay of last year’s Christmas Hurdle; we’re not talking ten years ago – it’s just 12 months! If Lossiemouth comes, it may be a different ball game, but, god willing, we will definitely be there.”

Admittedly, anything Henderson says can be taken with a pinch of salt, but this makes sense for all parties. Let us entertain you quickly. Say CONSTITUTION HILL is fit and ready to go, he goes to the Christmas Hurdle. That frees up SIR GINO to go to the Wayward Lad (bold fto) which seems right as Hendo has left the novice chasing door open for SIR GINO. LOSSIEMOUTH comes over the water to take on CONSTITUTION HILL and STATE MAN can head to the Matheson Hurdle with a run under his belt. Everyone has a dog in the right race - Hendo is happy, Mullins is happy and The Donnellys (owners of STATE MAN and SIR GINO) are happy. Bosh.

BRIGHTER DAYS, WE GUESS

Speaking of the Matheson Hurdle, we’re in for another instalment of STATE MAN vs BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD! That’s because Eddie O’Leary has confirmed that BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD will go to Leopardstown over Christmas.

STATE MAN and BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD took each other on in the Morgiana with the mare getting the better of the reigning Champion Hurdle champion. But, there is good reason to think the form can be reversed as STATE MAN – to onlookers on track – appeared on the bigger side (rude). BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD had the benefit of race fitness, so this checks out.

Even O’Leary agrees, as he said: “Hopefully she’ll go to Leopardstown and we’ll see what happens there. She’ll meet a much better State Man, so we’ll see.”

Also in the article, he doubles down on the notion that the Mares’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival is her main target. Boo!

Look, we understand why. The Champion Hurdle could be obscene this season and she is probably going to be better for a bit more of a trip, but just imagine if she went and faced the likes of LOSSIEMOUTH, CONSTITUTION HILL, SIR GINO, STATE MAN, and more. The best renewal in the history of the race!

Alas, it looks like the race LOSSIEMOUTH won last season is on BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD’s agenda, as he continued: “We’re going to the Mares’ Hurdle and we’ll be going chasing next year, not hurdling.

“We’ll go to Leopardstown at Christmas because there’s nowhere else to go. We’d much rather be going two and a half miles, but there is nowhere else to go.”

It’s good to see they’ve mentioned chasing for next season as well. We hypothesised that she jumped like a garden chair over fences and that’s the reason they skipped novice chasing this season, but maybe not. Maybe they really did want to get more experience (and a few Grade 1s) under the belt before trying fences. We shall see.

NO DOUBLE?

The King George saga of ‘will he, won’t he’ got some more news yesterday. Hooray!

Well, this one does involve last year’s winner HEWICK as he may skip the race. What!?

Well, it’s a bit more complicated than that. As we all know, ground is a huge thing to HEWICK. If it’s good ground over fences, he runs. If it’s worse than good to soft, he doesn’t. According to the Shark, that’s because of his size. He can’t jump very well on soft because he is small and it takes more out of him to get over them.

Over hurdles, that’s a different story. This is why he finished second in the French Champion Hurdle on very soft this year and fourth in the 2023 renewal on the same ground.

Well, with the uncertainty about the weather over Christmas, a switch up to the smaller obstacles could occur depending on the ground. Fair enough.

Tara Lee Cogan, the boss of Shark Hanlon’s County Carlow yard for the time being, said: "Plans are still up in the air with regard to where he will run at Christmas, but we are very much thinking about the Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown. That looks like a suitable option, if we don’t go for the King George or the Savills."

Playing HEWICK ante-post would be silly, of course, but just in case anyone was thinking of it, it may be worth holding off. Furthermore, this could affect the market for the Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown as well.

CHELTENHAM’S CHRISTMAS MEETING

7 races at Prestbury Park - feels like a Saturday, which means it’s a mega Friday.

A novice event opens proceedings and Hendo’s THAT’S NICE is heavy odds on for the famous gold and green silks of JP. Out of Hendo’s winning mare BLOODY MARE, she’s a homebred by JP and everyone expects her to win.

The second race, the 12.40, is all about Nicholls’ new recruit CALDWELL POTTER. Bought from the Caldwell dispersal sale, he’s had one run for Paul and did it fairly easily and jumped like a stag… should do for £740k! Who can beat him? Well, it’s a harder race with Graded place horse JANGO BAIE making his debut over fences - the market suggesting it’s a two horse race. Last seen at Aintree, JANGO BAIE flew from the clouds and ran out of track - the hill will help him today but he may need further in time. A watching and enjoy event for us.

The third race is a brilliant handicap hurdle with WILLMOUNT heading the market. he looked a machine last year and was tipped up by many for the Supreme before pulling up at Newbury and he’s not been seen since. He could be anything. WRECKLESS ERIC is sure to be in the mix, last seen winning at Cheltenham when coming from a seemingly impossible position. The others shouldn’t be good enough to beat these two with perhaps TINTINTIN picking up the pieces. Another no betting race with all eyes on WILLMOUNT with fingers crossed we see him BACK! Good luck to connections.

The 13.50 is all about CHIANTI CLASSICO.

The yard could be in better form, but the horse couldn’t - he’s a proper chaser for Kim Bailey and a good performance here will really get Kim to start dreaming of bigger things later next year - Grand National or the grandest race of all, the Gold Cup!? Of the others in the field, KING TURGEON is on the up but may want quicker ground, JAVA POINT knows his way around the track nicely and OUR POWER is to prove he can see out a race here.

The Veterans’ Chase features at 14.24… some familiar names people love, none more so than SHAN BLUE who has been backed into favourite. Surely he is the Graded horse in a handicap!? He hasn’t won since that fall but if he’s back, as in properly back, then he can get his head back in front today for Dan Skelton who is simply unstoppable at the moment.

The 15.00 is our favourite race - the XC! XC King DELTA WORK is running, it’ll be so so good to see him back on his old stomping ground. At this distance, he’s going to love the conditions. A tough race though with MISTER COFFEY knocking on the door and 2023 Grand National second VANILLIER at 25/1.

The last race is dominated by DOYEN QUEST - 5/4. You have to ask though, why the hell is GOWEL ROAD drifting. He ran a huge race against DOYEN QUEST and is better off at the weights now with the ground in his favour. LONG DRAW for Olly Murphy should be bang there too meaning Skelton’s is a little too short. Another watching race.

Verdict: of all the races at Cheltenham, we think SHAN BLUE in the Veteran’s is the bet of the meeting now Hendo’s in the first is too short.

RISK ON

 SHAN BLUE is a bet at Cheltenham, any others we will post on X @equinties

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