Equinties - fire man Sam

Gm Equinauts

Olly Murphy is up there in the short list of British trainers who have started the season off with a bang and he landed the odds yesterday with an easy winner for us in JUNKER D’ALLIER.

Olly has had 4 winners from his last 7 novice hurdlers. That’s good going so, keep your eyes on WADE OUT in the opener at Uttoxeter today who has been well-backed into odds-on. He’s a horse that Murphy thinks plenty of, and his debut success at Market Rasen at the end of March was impressive on the eye.

He works well at home with STRONG LEADER (who we mention in the bumper preview) and, although Murphy has plenty of hype horses that do fail to achieve the limits of what they’re bred to do, this one looks an exciting type in the notable silks of Sir Alex et al. who have had loads of winners recently.

Whether you want to back an odds on shot or not, don’t miss the race as it’s certainly one for the notebooks because in the race runs KNIGHT OF ALLEN who looked nice last season and has big Challow ambitions.

You should be seeing a bit more from these two horses this season!

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

MULLINS BINGO…IN OCTOBER!

Willie Mullins bingo. It’s a game we all play throughout the build up to Cheltenham, and it’s a phrase that sends shivers down the spine of speccy (mainly losing) ante-post punters.

Well, we already have some form of indication as to some of the plans for his top horses, so let the rigmarole of the fun and games begin!

Disclaimer: the following info could be completely made up, and to be quite honest, we really don’t care!

Let’s start with the big one, GAELIC WARRIOR.

News about him wanting to run over three miles should come as no surprise. After all, he won a three-mile Grade 1 novice hurdle and there was chat about the Cheltenham Gold Cup after he won the Arkle. Mental!

Furthermore, there’s always been a worry about his jumping when going left-handed, and he absolutely bolted up in the Faugheen Novices’ Chase when going right-handed over 2m3f in December, so he should handle Kempton nicely.

Remember? That day Paddy and Danny Mullins had a little spat.

In a market dominated by IL EST FRANCAIS (3/1) and FASTORSLOW (7/2), he looks sound at 8/1.

It’s also worth mentioning that Mullins will be hell-bent on getting that second British Trainers’ Championship this year. He’s already hinted at targeting a few early-season Cheltenham meetings, so when he says a horse is a possible for the King George, that should be taken with a degree of seriousness.

FACT TO FILE was the other horse mentioned for the King George, and while JP McManus will be keen to split up his high-profile three-mile chasers this year, we would think he will be staying in Ireland if he is Mullins’ heir to the GALOPIN DES CHAMPS thrown.

EL FABIOLO, having been rumoured to have a setback, is potentially being aimed for the Tingle Creek as well, so Mullins is really keen for this trainers’ championship!

FIRE MAN SAME

Sam Thomas is in fire form at the moment, as shown by LUMP SUM in the Welsh Champion Hurdle, so it came as no surprise to see CELTIC DINO win on his first start over hurdles yesterday, and he did it impressively.

He had good form coming into the race as he won a bumper at Ascot and then chased Dan Skelton’s useful mare LET IT RAIN at Ascot again.

LET IT RAIN is a Graded mare in Skelton’s eyes and the second, BRECHIN CASTLE, is also highly regarded by the Brookhouse’s.

Not only do the two previous mentioned horses have big targets, but so does CELTIC DINO as the Betfair Chase has been highlighted as the main aim.

Thomas said: "The Betfair Hurdle would be the obvious plan. He'd need a run every month to qualify, as you need four runs, but that would be the sort of thing we'd be looking at ideally.

"He's a real top-of-the-ground horse. He pointed his toe there and jumped great and I was pleased just to see him have a good look.”

INNER ASCOT

As expected, three races on Saturday’s Champions Day card will be switched to the inner course as the outer track had heavy in the official going this morning.

It’s a solid decision to make as it has been done early and there is a strong band of rain coming in on Saturday morning that likely to keep the ground on the slow side.

The extent of the rain was discussed by clerk of the course Chris Stickels, as he said: "We've had two millimetres of rain overnight but the forecast looks generally dry for the rest of the day. Through Friday night and Saturday morning we've got further showers forecast, with a current prediction of around six to eight millimetres.

"The going on the straight course and the inner Flat course is soft now and I think conditions will be mainly soft on Saturday too, given the rainfall forecast and where we are just now. Hopefully, the showers should clear up by racing."

UTTOXETER BUMPER

We’re pretty sure we backed the winner of this heat last year - MELLIFICENT for JJ, and we hope we can do the same today but it is a tough one.

GEORGIAS CHARM heads the market in this one but she’s a weak fave at an uneasy 3/1 as she’s the one with most experience under rules. She got turned over at heavy odds on lto and we’re not sure that form stacks up so will take her on.

DREAM SHADOW is one of two runners for Fergal O’Brien who has had a fairly slow start to this season by his usual high standards. This girl cost 100k after hosing up in a Point of which the form has been boosted. Reasonably well related but she will need to improve on her last run to win a bumper otherwise shell be one for fences later.

Fergal’s retained rider Burke takes this ride on DREAM SHADOW with Liam Harrison on STRONG RUN. STRONG RUN has a serious pedigree! She is a full sister to STRONG LEADER and STRONG GLANCE - two horse we love as both have landed us big bets in the past! We think Burke might be on the wrong one here.

TILLAWAY has joined to Tom George yard having come over from Ireland.

SERVICE MINIMUM runs for Dan Skelton who is having a brilliant time in bumpers already this season. This pedigree is a little opaque but she cost >£50k so could be anything.

Toby Lawes’ MUSTANG BETTY is nicely bred and is probably a bit too big at 12/1. Lots of winners in her family! She should defo out run her odds.

The others are for further down the line in handicaps.

Verdict: We love STRONG RUN in this. We know she’s not guaranteed to be as good as her older brothers but there is a STRONG chance she will be and if, big if she is, she’ll take some stopping today. 11/2 is a win bet.

BUMPER RESULTS

03/10/24 KAYLAN 2/1 (11/8 SP) - WINNER

08/10/24 LAURA LOU & PLAYAWAY GIRL - L

09/10/24 JOTO L

09/10/24 ID GO MANIAC L

12/10/24 MONEYGARROW 5/1 (13/8 SP) - WINNER

16/10/24 KINGSLEY L

RISK ON

Two bets, one winner yesterday. Today looks a bit tough for our liking, we’ll play the bumper selection and will post any other bets on our X account @equinties.

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