Equinties - champs in the mud

Gm Equinauts

After a good winner in the mud yesterday,

the rain isn’t stopping and the forecast says we’ll be landing some good bets in the mud on Champions Day too.

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

INSIDE OR OUTSIDE

Champions Day and soft ground go hand in hand. It should come as no surprise to see a slow surface at Ascot this weekend as this invariably occurs most years.

AND WE LOVE IT.

What is likely to be similar this year compared to last year is which track they’ll be racing on as course officials are preparing to announce a switch to the inner round track.

All races that occurred on the round course last year took place on the inner course due to the outer course being too soft, and that could well be the case this year if heavy appears in the going description by 8am on Thursday.

With a few showers predicted for tomorrow and between 6-8mm scheduled for Wednesday, that will likely turn the already heavy, soft in places going description on the outer course much softer.

And that’s all before one considers the rain that is predicted from Friday afternoon through to Saturday morning!

So, either way, soft ground is the order of play for this weekend. Hooray! Soft ground punting is easy!

YOUNG’UNS ON CHAMPIONS DAY

The weight allowance that three-year-olds get from their elders throughout the Flat season is always fun to keep an eye on. Some need it, some don’t.

It’s there to help the less experienced and less developed three-year-olds, though horses develop at different rates and some three-year-olds really take full advantage of the weight they get.

So, with Champions Day sending off the 2024 Flat season into the sun, here’s a quick look at how three-year-olds have faired against their elders on the final Flat raceday of the season at Ascot.

Three-year-olds get eight pounds in the Long Distance Cup, but due to the longevity nature of the division, but they rarely get their heads in front.

The last was AKMAL in 2009 and horses like ELDAR ELDAROV, SIR EREC, and even the big STRAD in 2017 have all failed to win as a three-year-old, so the stats are against ILLINOIS if he takes up his engagement.

There’s only a singular pound that separates the ages in the Champions Sprint, so there’s not much difference to note at all. CREATIVE FORCE in 2021, SANDS OF MALI in 2018, and MUHAARAR in 2015 have all won the race for the young’uns over the last 10 years.

Does anything connect these three? MUHAARAR and SANDS OF MALI were precocious types as they both won Group 2s as a juvenile (and are now both top sires) while CREATIVE FORCE won on debut before a disappointing effort at Royal Ascot, which was the final start of his juvenile season.

BEAUVATIER won a Listed race last year and BUCANERO FUERTE was a Group 1 winner, so could that put these three-year-olds in good shape?

The Fillies and Mares market has KALPANA, a three-year-old, at the head of affairs, and eight of the last 11 winners were fillies of her age.

It really is a race for improving pattern class fillies and her form with FRIENDLY SOUL continues to look very good. She has also already raced against her elders in the September Stakes and won nicely.

The same goes for CONTENT and the recent Prix Royallieu winner GRATEFUL.

The QEII not only has a fair few three-year-olds in the contest, but it also has a three-year-old filly towards the top of the market with TAMFANA.

TAHIYRA was third in the race last year when BIG ROCK, a fellow three-year-old, bolted up, and MINDING won for the three-year-old fillies in 2016.

Much like the Fillies and Mares, three-year-olds have a great record despite only getting three pounds, though TAMFANA looks the best of the bunch and she gets a further three pounds from her older colts and geldings.

Finally, the Champion Stakes has a fairly mixed record. There’s a four-pound difference between ages, though if we’re being honest, this probably won’t have too much of an effect on this year’s race as three-year-olds are set to dominate the contest.

ECONOMICS, CALANDAGAN, LOS ANGELES, KING’S GAMBIT, and HENRY LONGFELLOW all have great chances, while IRESINE (14/1) and LUXEMBOURG (28/1) are the best of the older folk.

All in all, it’s going to be a brilliant days racing with the ground very uch in our favour - so do NOT miss the weekend edition.

SHARK HANLON

Shark Hanlon tweeted yesterday following his appeal against his training ban.

No official decision has been made as of yet, but Hanlon will be told about the result within 14 days after fellow trainer Edward O’Grady provided testimony to support Hanlon’s case at the IHRB headquarters.

There’s not much to add to this until a full result comes in, but what needs to be considered is Hanlon’s dispersal sale at Goffs on October 22nd.

The fact that a decision hasn’t been made and could be held back for a full 14 days puts the Shark in a tight spot due to the fact that a lot of his horses are entered for the dispersal sale.

The 10-month suspension could be upheld which would mean the Shark carries on with the selling of his horses, but the suspension could also be greatly reduced which would give him hope of keeping going in the near future.

That decision from the independent panel will be very, very interesting.

MARKET RASEN BUMPER

We didn’t post a boom after landing the Skelton bumper Saturday because we didn’t feel it appropriate after what happened to CUTHBERT DIBBLE. The full brother to MINELLA CROONER was backed in from 5’s into 13/8 and bolted up.

Let’s see if we can find today’s winner in a very depleted field - only 4 runners!

This is a desperate bumper, only 4 in the race and none of them own standout pedigree’s. TILEHURST has seen some over night money, pushing the opening fave BOHEMOND ANTIOCH out to now third race at 5/2.

THILEHURST is bred for the flat but for much shorter trips. He’s by bullet sire BATED BREATH and you have to go back to the second dam to find anything that would stay anything remotely close to a mile or more. At 5/4 it suggests he’s quick and we might consider him if this bumper was ran over 1m4f but 2miles might and should just be too far for him.

The second fave L’AIR DU LARGE is better bred for this sort of trip. The pedigree is a little opaque given the dam didn’t race but she’s a full sister to a good French winner and both sire and dam sire (NO RISK AT ALL and KAPGARDE respectively) offer up the ‘could be anything’ category.

BOHEMOND ANTIOCH is by NATHANIEL who gets bumper winners and the second dam has produced above average stayers. The nice thing about this horse is he’s related to winners over a trip - more can be said for the others!

The other horse PLAYAWAY GIRL looked pretty useless lto. Now, she might have needed the run but you’d want to see some support for her from her current price of 20’s.

Verdict: It cannot be overstated how bad this bumper is and any late market support for L’AIR DU LARGE and BOHEMOND ANTIOCH should be noted as TILEHURST should be taken on over 2 miles. Our immediate gut feeling is L’AIR DU LARGE 9/4 will be the winner and make that our decision unless we tweet otherwise - the market should tell you who wins this race.

BUMPER RESULTS

03/10/24 KAYLAN 2/1 (11/8 SP) - WINNER

08/10/24 LAURA LOU & PLAYAWAY GIRL - L

09/10/24 JOTO L

09/10/24 ID GO MANIAC L

12/10/24 MONEYGARROW 5/1 (13/8 SP) - WINNER

RISK ON

ALMERAQ in the Yarmouth first should be added to a single or two as leverage, he’s supposed to be very good. His dam is a half to the Group 1 wining FAIRYLAND and with DREAM AHEAD in the immediate family tree - he should love the ground!

14.45 SALLAAL

By FRANKEL out of the mare who has produced the likes of the brilliant BENBATL. He should handle the ground today and is very much fancied on debut. 7/4 is a single and lever up to 3s using the Haggas horse in the first (see above).

15.15 MYSTIFIED

A small speccy play in an incredibly bad race. We normally stick to better than class 6’s but there a very few in this race who will like the ground and we think this girl will. 8/1 is a small ew to test our theory.

18.00 ROYAL ALLIANCE

At 11/2, we feel this lad should be a good ew to nothing. Burkes is looking exposed and the Archie Watson horse (who has been smashed) hasn’t had a run and will nee to run to above 80 first time up to beat Boughey’s who has come on a lot since being gelded.

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